MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, July 19th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Hit both picks last week. Fun one for Garrett Crochet. Racked up 4 Ks through 2 innings, and then they pulled him. Always nice when grinding the news works out. There were rumblings that Crochet would be limited, yet his strikeouts prop still opened at 8.5. Hunter Brown was solid once again, and Andrew Heaney did enough to secure that first 5 innings under. Going back to Brown today.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 9-6-1
- Prop Picks: 10-6
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings Under 4 (-120 on ESPN BET)
Brown has been good to us this season; looking forward to backing him again. He ran into a buzz saw two starts ago, stumbling against a red-hot Minnesota offense, but got back on track against Texas last time out (2 ERs over 6 IP). Brown now has quality starts in 9 of his last 10 appearances. Since introducing the sinker in early May, he has a 2.75 ERA backed up by a 3.50 xFIP and 3.54 SIERA. He’s held hitters to a .216 BA while posting a 26.4% K%. Seattle ranks 28th in OPS and wOBA against RHP over the past 30 days of games.
Luis Castillo facing this Houston lineup is a bigger question mark but only slightly. Castillo struggled in June, with a 5.13 ERA over 6 starts. He’s since bounced back, allowing just 1 ER over 12.2 IP in July. Castillo’s primary weakness this season has been lefties, as he’s allowed a .217 ISO and a .367 wOBA, with just a 17.9% K%. He has been elite against righties, holding them to a .127 ISO and a .250 wOBA, with a massive 29.6% K%. Houston has been a top-10 offense vs. RHP over the past 30 days of games, but they will likely only have 3 lefties in the lineup, with just one of them being a legitimate threat (Yordan Alvarez).
I like the pitching on both sides here, particularly how they match up against these offenses.
Corbin Burnes Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110 on BetMGM)
Burnes has been dominant yet again this season and was a deserving choice to start the All-Star Game for the AL side. He’s just going about it a bit differently this season. Burnes has always done a solid job limiting hard contact, and he’s been even better at it this season. His 30.9% hard-hit rate ranks 93rd percentile and is the 2nd-best mark of his career. He is leaning into this skill, sacrificing strikeouts for quicker outs.
His 23.3% K% is slightly above average but is his worst mark since his rookie season. His 13% swinging-strike rate is the 2nd lowest of his career, and his 29.2% CSW% is a career low. These are still solid numbers; they’re just not overwhelmingly elite like they’ve been in past seasons. The contact rate metrics tell a similar story. Burnes’ 73.4% contact rate and 86.8% zone contact rate are both career highs and more than 4% above his career averages.
Texas ranks 22nd in K% against righties over the past 30 days of games. Tonight’s projected lineup has just an 18.9% K% vs. RHP this season, which would rank 26th. They’re projected to have 6 lefties in the lineup, and Burnes has a subpar 20.5% K% against lefties this season.
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