MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, July 5th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We stayed hot last week with two more wins. Cristopher Sanchez silenced the Marlins, tossing a complete-game shutout. Albert Suarez was pretty dominant himself, blanking the Rangers for 6 innings.
Let’s keep it rolling.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 7-6-1
- Prop Picks: 9-5
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds First 5 Innings Under 5.5 (-137 on Bally Bet)
The 5.5 line is only available on BetRivers and Bally Bet right now. If you’re in one of the states with either option, congrats. ESPN BET and bet365 are both at 5, which is also a solid option. The 4.5 at around even-money on FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM is where I would’ve had the line. Getting 5.5 at a decent price is rare, especially when there aren’t extreme circumstances (weather, Coors Field, terrible pitchers, etc). This isn’t an extreme matchup in any way.
Reese Olson carried a sub-2.00 ERA into June, then regression finally hit. He was knocked around for 17 ERs over a 3-start stretch to begin the month. Olson quickly got back on track, firing 3 straight quality starts to close out June. He even flashed some strikeout upside, with 8 Ks against the Braves and 9 Ks against the Angels. Olson has a pair of elite whiff pitches (slider and changeup) and has an elite 51.9% ground ball rate (87th percentile). He gets hit hard, but it doesn’t tend to hurt him since the majority of the contact is on the ground.
Carson Spiers has excelled since entering the rotation in early June. He’s allowed 8 ERs across 4 appearances with a crisp 21:4 K:BB. His ERA estimators are a bit higher than his 3.04 ERA in this stretch, but they’re all still comfortably under 4.00. Spiers throws a ton of strikes (4.5% BB%) and does a nice job limiting hard contact (75th percentile in hard-hit rate, 84th percentile in barrel rate). He’s probably due for some home run regression (1 HR in 37.1 IP), but it shouldn’t be a big issue as long as he continues to limit hard contact.
Both of these offenses have struggled against right-handed pitching, ranking bottom in the 10 in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past 30 days. Cincinnati has been more subpar, while Detroit has been downright dreadful. Only the Marlins have been worse than the Tigers vs. RHP in that span. The Reds face the more proven pitcher, which should balance things out. It’s not an ideal spot for either one of these offenses.
Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-156 on FanDuel)
Definitely pay attention to the price here. I wouldn’t play it past -170 or so. I think it will likely keep moving that way, so keep an eye on it. It might be one to skip if the price gets out of hand.
Freeland has pitched well since returning from an extended injury absence, allowing just 2 ERs across a pair of outings. The matchups couldn’t have been much easier, though. Freeland faced the Nationals on the road and the White Sox at home. Even with the solid run prevention numbers, he only managed 7 Ks in 12.2 IP. Freeland’s strikeout rate is down to a career-low 11.9%, which ranks in the 1st percentile.
Freeland’s strikeout numbers have ticked down for three straight seasons. He’s only thrown 28.2 innings this year, but he posted a 13.9% K% (2nd percentile) across 155.2 innings in 2023. Righties were a big problem for Freeland last season, mashing him for a .234 ISO and .387 wOBA to go with a 12.5% K%.
Kansas City has the 3rd-lowest strikeout rate (18%) in the league against lefties since the start of May. They’re also top 10 in OPS and wOBA. Tonight’s projected lineup has just a 16.3% K% across 511 plate appearances vs. LHP this season. The group has just one left-handed hitter, and it’s one of their best contact guys (Vinnie Pasquantino – 16.9% K% vs. LHP). It’s just a brutal matchup for one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball.
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