MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, June 14th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Whiffed on both picks last week. Garrett Crochet was awesome once again, but Cooper Criswell struggled. Wouldn’t have guessed a good offensive night from the White Sox would ruin that bet. Justin Steele had a solid start against Cincinnati, cruising past his strikeout prop. We’re in a bit of a rut here; need a bounce-back night.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-5-1
- Prop Picks: 6-5
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-110 on DraftKings)
It seems like Max Meyer is going to start for Miami. If that’s the case, and we get Meyer vs. MacKenzie Gore, this line should be closer to 3.5.
We only got to see 3 starts from Meyer, but they were excellent. He allowed just 4 ERs across 17 IP, with a solid 14:3 K:BB. Meyer dominated the Braves over 6 innings in his final MLB start (back when Atlanta was a good offense). He was unceremoniously booted back to the minors in an effort to limit his workload. Meyer last pitched on June 7th. Miami hasn’t listed a starter for tonight’s game. Manager Skip Schumaker said in an interview late last week that he expected Meyer to return to the big leagues “soon.” Soon might be tonight.
Gore stumbled in his first start of June but bounced back last time out, with 5 innings of 1-run ball in a win over Atlanta. He’s allowed 3 ERs or less in 12 of his 13 starts this season. Gore has added 1.5 mph to his fastball this season, while mixing in a changeup to righties. He’s also throwing a harder slider that’s become his 2nd-best whiff pitch (behind the changeup). It’s a more well-rounded arsenal that’s led to a career-high strikeout rate, career-low walk rate, and above-average quality-of-contact metrics. Hard contact had been an issue for Gore, but he’s 79th percentile in average exit velocity this season.
Miami has been dreadful against LHP this season, and tonight’s projected lineup has an ugly .096 ISO and .258 wOBA. Washington hasn’t been much better, ranking bottom 10 in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. RHP over the past 30 days.
Tarik Skubal Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150 on FanDuel)
Skubal is one of the better strikeout pitchers in the league, but this is an extremely challenging matchup. The Astros are built to make plenty of contact, especially against Skubal’s primary strikeout pitch.
Houston has the lowest strikeout rate vs. LHP by a decent margin. Their 15.7% mark is nearly 2% lower than the next-closest team (San Diego at 17.5%). Tonight’s projected lineup is down at a silly 13.8% K% across 603 plate appearances against LHP this season. Just 2 hitters are above 17%, and only Chas McCormick could be classified as a vulnerable strikeout bat.
Skubal’s changeup is his best swing-and-miss pitch. It had a ridiculous 50.6% whiff rate last season, and it’s at an elite 44.6% this season. Skubal throws the changeup 26.5% of the time, and it’s responsible for 36 of his 96 strikeouts. Left-handed changeups haven’t been an issue for this Houston lineup though. They’ve struck out just 15.7% of the time on changeups from LHP since the start of last season (363 plate appearances).
It’s a difficult spot for Skubal. Despite his excellent skills, 7 Ks seems like a high bar against this lineup.
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