MLB Betting Picks & Predictions: Yankees at Nationals
The MLB season needed less than an inning for a fireworks display with Giancarlo Stanton taking Max Scherzer deep in his first at-bat. The Yankees slugger collected three RBI as the Yankees won a rain-shortened opening game 4-1 behind a “complete” game for newly signed Gerrit Cole. The World Series champions will look to rebound behind Stephen Strasburg and regroup without their star, Juan Soto.
Here are MLB betting lines from online sportsbooks and MLB betting picks for tonight’s game.
Also read: MLB World Series Odds, Tips, & Predictions
MLB Betting Lines for Saturday, July 25
MLB Betting Picks and Predictions
Nationals vs. Yankees (FOX, 7:15 EST)
Starting Pitchers
- Nationals: Stephen Strasburg RHP (18-6, 3.32 ERA)
- Yankees: James Paxton LHP (15-6, 3.82 ERA)
The opening night pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer felt like a dream matchup. Two of the likely, top five pitchers in the MLB squaring off to usher in a new, albeit short, baseball season. While the matchup tonight might not quite reach that lofty billing, a matchup between Stephen Strasburg and James Paxton will certainly qualify as a pitcher’s duel.
Strasburg is coming off a phenomenal season and postseason — recording five wins as the Nationals made a relatively unexpected run to a World Series championship. During the offseason, Strasburg resigned with Washington for 7 years and $245 million after opting out of his other contract. In his final tune-up on July 20th before the regular season, the ace threw five innings against the Baltimore Orioles — striking out six and walking none while surrendering a run. Oft-injured, Strasburg pitched the most innings in a season (209) since 2014. Opposing hitters amassed a putrid .210 BA and .265 wOBA against the hurler. Despite the success, Strasburg did allow the occasional long ball, finishing the season with 1.0 HR/9 (24 HR allowed).
James Paxton underwent spinal surgery in February to remove a peridiscal cyst. The initial news was pretty grim as Paxton seemed slated to miss half the 2020 baseball season. With the late start, Paxton has worked to get in shape and form for the late start and finds himself ready to carry the starting pitching load. On July 20th, Paxton exceeded 80 pitches in a simulated game and should be stretched out enough to handle a full start. Paxton was electric at times in 2019, finishing with 11.11 K/9 — ninth in the MLB for pitchers with at least 150 IP. Despite continuing to strike batters out at a high clip, Paxton’s peripheral stats declined a bit last season. His groundball rate (38.4%) was the lowest of his career while his hard-hit rate was the highest (38%). Couple those undesirable changes with his elevated walk rate (8.7%) and one should not be surprised by his lofty 4.03 xFIP.
Lucky for Paxton, the Nationals lineup is extremely watered down. With Anthony Rendon in Los Angeles, Ryan Zimmerman opting out, and Juan Soto out with a positive test — the Nationals’ projected lineup is punchless — amassing a .174 ISO in 2019. Behind Paxton is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Working back to form from injury, I would not be surprised if Aaron Boone goes to the bullpen early with a lead.
The discrepancy between the potency of the two starting lineups seems far greater than the pitching matchup considering the strength of the New York bullpen. While Strasburg is great, the New York lineup won’t need to score much to win this game. The -130 tag means the Yankees need to win this game better than 56% of the time. While I think it is close, a rested Yankees bullpen against a thin Washington lineup pushes the Bombers over the edge for me. Keep shopping for a better number up until the first pitch.
MLB Betting Pick: New York Yankees -130 (FanDuel)
MLB Game Props and Player Props
New York Yankees Over 4.5 Total Runs -110 (Fanduel)
The Yankees lineup is extremely potent top-to-bottom and can find contributions from a host of power bats. If the Bombers can collect a few runs off of Strasburg, a Nationals bullpen that only accumulated 0.9 WAR in 2019 will be left to dance around a minefield of a lineup. Derek Carty, the curator of The Bat and RotoGrinders contributor, has banged the drum for Washington to be a top ballpark for offense.
Tonight’s weather will be warm and humid. Give me the over.
Players to Hit a Home Run (FanDuel)
After recommending the over on the Yankee run total, one might presume my home run hunt would focus on the New York lineup. Au contraire, as the prices on New York bombs, are not very attractive. Instead, I want to capitalize on the better prices for the Nationals’ bats against James Paxton who yielded a .211 ISO and 45.7 FB% to right-handed bats in 2019. These should be very small bets, for fun.
Howie Kendrick +650
Starlin Castro +550
Both players finished the 2019 season with ISO numbers above .200. If you want to throw a dart, the prices are not horrendous for a micro-unit play.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images