MLB Daily Grind Down: April 11th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Yesterday we got our first taste of the MLB version of the late scratch, the rain out, as both MIL/CHI and NYY/CLE were washed away. The weather map for today looks equally bad so be sure to check the local forecast. It will not be so bad since the weather girl is often the only attractive person on the news. Keeping with tradition, I will not lead in with the image of the player I like the best today to avoid the curse that comes with the fame. I offer you an image of my favorite weather girl to take away your rainy day blues. This one comes from a part of the world that lacks America’s fondness for subtlety. I let you use your own geographic skills to figure out just where.
Day Games
Toronto at Detroit
| Toronto | Detroit | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerica Park | 1:05 PM | ||||||
| Josh Johnson (0-0 REC, 4.50 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | Doug Fister (1-0 REC, 5.40 ERA, 6.1 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (8-21) H/AB, 5 XBHA, 0 HRA, 2 KA | PvB | (24-91) H/AB, 8 XBHA, 0 HRA, 12 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 82 IP, 4.94 ERA, 0.27 BAA, 7.1 K/9 | HOME | 81.1 IP, 3.21 ERA, 0.235 BAA, 7.9 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
TOR BvP  | TOR vs R | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Pitchers
- The line for this game opened with an OU line of 4.5 and was listed as a pick’em. Someone probably lost his job on that one and it is now set at the more reasonable total of an OU line at 8 and DET favored at -135.
- Doug Fister is slated by Vegas to get the win in this one. He is coming off a rough outing in which the Yankees hung him for 3 ER in 6 IP. His home ERA was a 3.21 last year and his K/9 ratio of 7.63 put him in play but Toronto’s offense finally seems to be clicking. It is a risky venture to take Fister today. Avoid
- Josh Johnson first outing was also not all that crisp. He did manage to tally 6 Ks in 6 IP, though. His ERA on the road last year was a dismal 4.94 for his price tag, a number that will probably get worse in the AL. At 29, he still has plenty of upside and is capable of GPP winning outings every time he takes the mound. It is just not as safe a proposition as it was a couple of years ago. He is not slated to get the win and is facing a team batting .297 to start the season. Avoid
Batters
- Jose Reyes is looking like he is worth every penny of the huge contract the Marlins gave him. Too bad he now plays for the jays. It is always a good idea to plug in a player producing. I like him, J.P. Arencibia, and Melky Cabrera today. Cabrera has a .300 BAA vs Fister. Also, in play is Jose Bautista who is 3-8 with 2 doubles vs. Dougie fresh.
- What little BvP information there is for this game is positive for DET. Prince Fielder is 4-11 vs. Johnson and Tori Hunter is 2-2. Both of those hits were for extra bases. They are two of the five starters DET has batting over .300 on the season. Miguel Cabrera, Austin Jackson and Omar Infante are the other 3. I like DET to scores some runs here but not a ton. All these guys are in play just not all on the same LU.
San Francisco at Chicago Cubs
| San Francisco | Chicago Cubs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrigley Field | 2:20 PM | ||||||
| Ryan Vogelsong (0-1 REC, 8.44 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP) | Scott Feldman (0-1 REC, 7.71 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (16-55) H/AB, 2 XBHA, 1 HRA, 7 KA | PvB | (0-0) H/AB, 0 XBHA, 0 HRA, 0 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 95.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 0.256 BAA, 7.9 K/9 | HOME | 64.2 IP, 4.73 ERA, 0.3 BAA, 6.1 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| SFG BvP | SFG vs R | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Pitchers
- The OU line for this game is 8.5 and SF is the favorite at -138 so Vegas likes Ryan Vogelsong to get the win. He got lit up by STL in his first outing but did manage 6 Ks in 5.1 IP. His road ERA was a decent 3.87 last year and he faces the Cubs today who are batting .198 on the season. If the wind is not blowing out then… Target
* Scott Feldman did not even make it 5 IP in his last start as ATL torched him with 4 ER. It is hard to recommend taking anyone who has a +4 ERA. It is even harder when they play for a team that scores less than 3 runs a game. Avoid
Batters
- The way the Cubs are batting, you cannot consider taking more than one of them and only one on the flyer that he gets you an HR and a 3-4 day. Alfonso Soriano has gone 5-12 with an HR vs. Vogelsong. He could be a sneaky play if he can connect.
- SF has been really swinging the bats well the last couple of games. Angel Pagan and Pablo Sandoval have been the too hottest hitters and Buster Posey is looking like a line drive machine again. Angel Pagan, Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro have the best numbers vs. Feldman but I think everyone is in play especially if the wind is blowing out.