MLB Daily Grind Down April 25th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Lots of great pitching going today so that makes finding the right batter all the more important. Miguel Cabrera gets my nod as player of the day today as his Detroit Tigers return home today were the are batting a sick .340 on the season. Thursday offers a nice 12 game schedule with 4 day games. Here is todays grind down to get you ready and running hot leading into another big Friday.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Bank Park | 1:05 PM | ||||||
| James McDonald (2-2 REC, 4.12 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP) | Cliff Lee (2-1 REC, 2.83 ERA, 6.1 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | 13-45 (0.289) H/AB, 1 OPS, 4 HR, 12 Ks | PvB | 27-95 (0.284) H/AB, 0.832 OPS, 4 HR, 25 Ks | ||||
| ROAD | 5 IP, 7.2 ERA, 0.222 BAA, 9 K/9 | HOME | 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 0.273 BAA, 7.2 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
PIT BvP  | PIT vs L | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored PHI -170
Pitchers
- Home Cliff Lee got hit pretty hard by the Cardinals in his last start but his line to start the season is pretty solid. He is 2-1 with 23 Ks and 9 ERs in 28.2 IP. His 0.91 WHIP is super impressive. He catches a PIT team batting .256 over the last 7 days, .178 on the road and only .187 versus left-handed pitching. Target
- Away James McDonald had a really solid outing last time out versus ATL going 6.0 IP with 9 Ks and 1 ER. The thing you have to worry about with him is that he is a horrible pitcher on the road. His road ERA a year ago was 5.95. This year, it is 7.20. Also, he has failed to eclipse 100 pitches thrown in any of his starts this season. Avoid
Batters
- Home The Phillies hit right-handers and hit at home at a much better clip than they do Left-handers and on the road. A McDonald implosion could happen so I think everyone is in play. Chase Utley .667 BAA in 6 AB with an HR and Ryan Howard .750 BAA in 4 AB with 1 HR look awful tasty considering their other favorable splits of at home and versus a righty. Jimmy Rollins BvPs are good as well and he has been trending upwards.
- Away I cannot recommend any players from PIT today. Even Andrew McCuthchen is batting .158 vs. Left-handers on the year and no one outside of Brandon Inge has any positive BvPs. If for some reason he plays he is 16-43 with 3 HRs vs. Lee.
Kansas City at Detroit
| Kansas City | Detroit | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerica Park | 1:05 PM | ||||||
| James Shields (1-2 REC, 3.00 ERA, 6.2 Avg IP) | Justin Verlander (2-2 REC, 2.13 ERA, 6.1 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | 62-185 (0.335) H/AB, 0.876 OPS, 5 HR, 47 Ks | PvB | 65-245 (0.265) H/AB, 0.727 OPS, 5 HR, 54 Ks | ||||
| ROAD | 18 IP, 3 ERA, 0.306 BAA, 11 K/9 | HOME | 7.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 0.25 BAA, 4.9 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| KCR BvP | KCR vs R | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored DET -165
Pitchers
- Home Justin Verlander is the heavy favorite. He is eating up IPs and churning out Ks again this year. He has gotten touched up a little at home so far this year but last year his home ERA was 1.65. He runs into a KAN team batting .257 on the road, .249 vs. right-handers and .251 over the last 7 days. All of those totals represent drops in splits. The BvP numbers are in favor of KAN. As we saw last night with Max, those numbers can make a difference.
- Away James Shield has been good so far this and his splits are positive but can you really consider taking him versus a DET team batting .340 at home. DET cooled of on the road over the last 7 days batting only .202 on their road trip but they have a .335 BAA as team versus Shields and are far too scary. Avoid
Batters
- Home Miguel Cabrera ‘s line of 13-26 with 6 XBH and 1 HR is strong. Austin Jackson , Victor Martinez , Jhonny Peralta , and Tori Hunter ‘s numbers are all positive as well. Prince Fielder does not have good BvPs but he does have the splits in favor of him.
- Away Low OU typically scare me away from taking hitters in a game but KAN does have some nice BvPs today. Billy Buttler, Salvador Perez and Alex Gordans numbers are all encouraging. Billy Butlers line stands out the most. He is 21-53 with 6 XBHs and 2 HRs.
LA Dodgers at NY Mets
| LA Dodgers | NY Mets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citi Field | 1:10 PM | ||||||
| Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-1 REC, 4.01 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | Jeremy Hefner (0-2 REC, 7.07 ERA, 5.0 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | 0-0 (0) H/AB, 0 OPS, 0 HR, 0 Ks | PvB | 2-9 (0.222) H/AB, 0.778 OPS, 0 HR, 1 Ks | ||||
| ROAD | 12 IP, 6 ERA, 0.298 BAA, 11.3 K/9 | HOME | 10 IP, 3.6 ERA, 0.243 BAA, 4.5 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| LAD BvP | LAD vs R | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored LAD -115
Pitchers
- Home Jeremy Hefner has more ERs on the season than he has Ks at 11-8. Those are not good numbers after four starts. He has limited upside and is not pitching well. Plus, he is not the favorite to win at home. Avoid
- Away Hyun-Jin Ryu had a couple of good starts at home to start the season and then has run into a little trouble on the road in his last two. He is on the road today against a NYM team that is batting .236 at home, .262 versus left-handers and only .214 over the last 7 days. He gets enough Ks to be in play and Vegas has him as the slight Favorite versus a cold team.
Batters
- Home Neither David Wright or John Buck have hit lefties well to start this year. That does not scare me because both have been hot and both have good career splits. Ryu has been sharp so I would not look to far down the Mets unless you can find some value.
- Away Not much BvP data is out there for this game. The righty is struggling so everyone is in play for a Dodger team that bats better on the road. Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crwaford look like the strongest plays. Matt Kemp is batting .429 over the last 7 days but his .191 batting average versus right-handers is not promising.
Houston at Boston
| Houston | Boston | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenway Park | 6:30 PM | ||||||
| Philip Humber (0-4 REC, 6.63 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | Clay Buchholz (4-0 REC, 0.90 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | 10-46 (0.217) H/AB, 0.717 OPS, 3 HR, 11 Ks | PvB | 6-35 (0.171) H/AB, 0.571 OPS, 1 HR, 9 Ks | ||||
| ROAD | 13 IP, 3.46 ERA, 0.245 BAA, 4.2 K/9 | HOME | 23 IP, 0.78 ERA, 0.169 BAA, 9.8 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| HOU BvP | HOU vs R | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored BOS -260
Pitchers
- Home Clay Buchholz is your lock of the day. This game might be included in some of your late start GPP for today. It is probably better if it is not because the overlay for this gentleman is going to be huge. His ERA is 0.90 and his whip is 1.00 on the year. He has 29 Ks on the year and the Astros have 207 Ks as a team on the season. That number is not from their pitching staff. Target
- Away Philip Humber were thought to be mostly mental by the White Sox a year ago. If that is true then he might be in line for another beating after giving up 8 ER in 1.1 IP of work last time out. His splits are not positive and he has a tough matchup. Avoid
Batters
- Home Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the best option here. He is 3-8 with 3 XBHs and 2 HRs versus Humber. Mike Napoli has also taken him yard in 3 AB. I like the left handed bats more than the rest because left-handers are batting .474 versus Humber but I think everyone is in play.
- Away If you take out that one explosion in SEA the Astros have been a pretty weak hitting team on the road and Clay is on fire. Look elsewhere my friends.