MLB Daily Grind Down: April 6th Day Games

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-06 17:13:11

Much like Mike Trout, the MLB Daily Grind Down has come into the season a little too heavy and it has effected our production. The article is so popular it is crashing our site. So we are offering a leaner version of the article today without all the bells and whistles. Do not worry you can still find all that info on Daily Research page. We are working diligently to change the format and things should be full swing again soon.

I was right yesterday about Barry Zito. He pitched well for me so he gets his photo featured today. This selection also serves to avoid the well documented curse that comes with being featured as the lead in image to the Grind Down

Washington at Cincinnati

• Vegas has the OU of this game at 8 so one of them could make a decent cheap 2nd starter. Vegas give the slight advantage to the Reds at -125 so I guess I would lean towards Leake over Detwiler but neither excites me because of the lackluster K/9.

• I advised a wait a see approach for the Red’s big hitters yesterday. Boy did we ever see. The Red’s exploded for 15 runs off of Dan Haren. They draw a lefty today, which historically is not god for Votto and Bruce. Todd Frazier has been on a tear lately. He hit two more homeruns yesterday. Zack Cozart, who hit 2 HR also yesterday, is batting .667 vs. Detwiler. Brandon Phillips is batting .333 against him. The Red’s are batting .302 vs. Detwiler.

• Mike Leake has one of the worst HR/9 totals in the league so you have to like the Nat’s big bats in this one. The team has a .309 BAA vs. Leake. The only guy that has down numbers towards him is Danny Espinosa. Adam LaRoche is still hitless on the season.

Boston at Toronto

• Vegas has the OU of this game at 9.5 with TOR at -150. John Lackey has looked well in the spring but I am always wary of the comeback. J.A. Happ’s K/9 rate ballooned to over 10 after his trade to TOR last year. He get’s more than enough Ks to be considered and Vegas thinks he will get the win.

• Tor as a team is batting .331 vs. Lackey. If Bautista sits again, Then Raja Davis could get the start and he is 10-26 vs. the man on the hill. Adam Lind is also 14-26 vs. Lackey but he has started the season 0-13. Melky Cabrera is also 10-29 vs. him.

• Dustin Pedroia is 3-3 vs. Happ. The hottest hitter on BOS has been Jose Iglesias. If he is still cheap on your site then ride the hot streak. Victorino is another hot hand, 7-20. BOS has hit just 2 HR to start the season. The lack of power is a little concerning.

Miami at NY Mets

• Vegas expects a low scoring game. The OU is at 7 with the Mets listed at -149. Nolasco went 6 giving up 3 and striking out 5 in his last start. Niese had a line 6.1, 4 H and 2 ER but manage to get the win. I expect a line similar to that and for to squeak out another one.

• David Wright and Daniel Murphy have some nice BvPs today. Lucas Duda has started off the season batting .273 and draws another righty today. Byrd has been pretty cheap on some sites if you are looking for a low salary guy. He has batted as high as 5th for them.

• Placido Polanco has a good track record vs. Niese so does Austin Kearns if he gets the start. Justin Ruggiano has been the Marlins only hot hitter and he has decent BvPs also. “Mike” Stanton is batting .143 with no HRs. I think the lack of protection around him is hurting him.

Seattle at Chicago White Sox

• Vegas has the OU line at 7.5 and SEA at -135. Might not be a whole lot of FPs in this one. Felix Hernandez pitched outstanding to start the season. His road ERA from a year ago though was a slightly better than average 3.43. David Axelrod gets his fair share of Ks but he throws to many pitches. Most likely he will not get you enough innings to matter even if he can land on the low end of his high ERA.

• A few of the White Soxs have okay stats vs. Felix. Paul Konereko and Alexi Ramirez are each batting around .280 vs. him. Gordon Beckham who has started of the season hot has 2 HR vs. Felix and could be a sneaky play today at 2nd.

• David Axelrod had a 9.13 ERA at home a year ago. There should be a few runs scored in this one for the Mariners. Mike Morse has been real hot but I think all of the starters have value here. I like Kendry Morales if the price is right because of his upside.

St. Louis at San Francisco

• Vegas has the OU line at 7 and SF favored at -135. Shelby Miller is considered one of the best prospects in baseball. He could develop into a strikeout per inning guy. He draws SF lackluster LU if you want to gamble and Vegas thinks he will pitch well enough to keep it close. Ryan Vogelsong had a great spring and he pitched really well at home last year with a 2.87 ERA. His K/9 ratio is solid enough and Vegas thinks he will get the win.

• Beltran’s is batting .364 vs. Vogelsong. The entire top of the order has great numbers. The team as a whole is batting .273 vs. him. Daniel Descalso is leading the team and batting at .297 and is still getting playing time. Cheap option.

• SF is batting .210 with no HRs on the season and only 9 R. I might be tempted to play some righty/lefty splits but they just are not swinging the bat well enough to be good plays.

LA Angels at Texas

• The OU line for this game is at 9.5 with TEX the slight favorite at -121. So a reasonable outcome for the final score is something like 6-4, which does not excite me to take either pitcher. Harrison does not get enough Ks to be a factor and he got roughed up in his last outing by the Astros….BY THE ASTROS! Hanson K/9 ratio is solid if you think he can navigate his way through the Ranger’s order. Not sure how much the shift in leagues will affect his numbers.
• Lance Berkman, Nelson Cruz, A.J. Pierzynski, and Craig Gentry are all to hot starts for TEX. David Murphy and Mitch Mooreland could be a factor vs. the righty today also. Most of the Rangers have yet to face Hanson but I think they will manage a few runs at home. They average almost 5 runs a game last year in Arlington.

• Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick both have an OPS over 1 verses Harrison. Pujols historically crushes left-handed pitching but is also a historically slow starter. It might be best to avoid him and an ice cold Josh Hamilton today since he is facing a southpaw. Trout hits righties better also and is batting only .200 vs. the man on the hill.

NY Yankees at Detroit

• Vegas has the OU at 8.5 with DET the strong favorite at -200. Max Scherzer came to life in the second half of the year and is a high K guy that can win a GPP. Everyone is hating on the Yankees LU but I am not convinced that they are as bad as many people think they are. The park produces power at HR are something Max has struggled with in the past. Might be too much of a risk for me at his price. Phil Hughes is coming back from an injury and is the type of starter you can only play when the matchup is right. The matchup is not right today.

• I think you can fire at will at this one. Cabrera, Dirks, Hunter, Martinez and Peralta all have great BvPs versus Hughes and Fielder normally smokes right-handed pitching. DET has one of the better orders in baseball and they are facing a subpar pitcher. Sometimes daily fantasy is that easy.

• NYY is batting just .211 as a team vs. Mad Max. The only bright spot is Travis Hafner who has .368 BAA. He is still very cheap on some site and batting 4th.