MLB Daily Grind Down: Friday, September 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-20 21:51:36

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

Atlanta vs. Chicago Cubs

2:20 PM	Atlanta – ROAD					Chicago Cubs – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.252	0.731	22.40%	0.59		0.240	0.702	20.10%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.252	0.735	22.60%	0.48		0.230	0.687	21.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Maholm – LHP					Baker – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.43	4.35	6.16	8.68		0.55	0.82	4.09	7.50
LAST 14 DAYS	1.67	3.00	7.50	9.00		0.55	0.82	4.09	7.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ATL vs R		ATL BvP			CHC vs L		CHC BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Paul Maholm – This is the lone day game on Friday so I doubt there will be many leagues that include this game, but why not break it down just in case? Maholm has a good matchup at first glance, but he has not pitched well on the road at all this season. He has a 5.86 ERA on the road while giving up a .291 batting average. I think he is an average option, even against the Cubbies. Rating = 4

• Scott Baker – Scott Bakers has good numbers on the season with a 0.82 ERA, but he’s only had two starts and he hasn’t been a dominant pitcher in his career. His ERA will catch up to him sooner or later. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

ATL – Over the last 3 years, Baker is giving up an OPS close to .800 against left hand hitters. This means you should be targeting Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman. If of course, the price is right.

CHC – I think the Cubs should do some damage against Maholm, but I’m not sure where the production is going to come from. Donnie Murphy has been good against lefties and is capable of hitting a HR, but I feel like there are better options with a full slate of games.

Miami vs. Washington

7:05 PM	Miami – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.231	0.623	19.80%	0.43		0.247	0.700	20.20%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.230	0.613	19.70%	0.31		0.258	0.734	19.90%	0.46
SP STATS	Turner – RHP					Zimmermann – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.44	3.51	5.94	8.12		1.13	3.33	6.85	11.54
LAST 14 DAYS	2.22	8.00	9.00	5.00		1.50	3.75	8.25	13.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIA vs R		MIA BvP			WSN vs R		WSN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jacob Turner – Many people expected Turner’s hot start to the season to eventually come to an end. He’s had an ERA over 5 over the last 2 months and is not trending in the right direction. The Nationals offense has been clicking lately and it’s looking like this one could be a big win for the Nats. Rating = 2

• Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmerman is sitting as a -250 favorite for tonight’s game and surprisingly that isn’t even the biggest favorite of the day. Zimmerman has a 2.82 ERA at home and almost always lasts 7 innings. He doesn’t strike out as many batters as some of the other aces, but he should get the win and keep the earned runs to a minimum. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

MIA – Turner’s splits are pretty even against left and right hand hitters so hitters from both sides of the plate are in play. Bryce Harper has been swinging a hot bat and Ryan Zimmerman is on a tear as well. I also like Ian Desmond batting 5th. One of the few SS’s with some power.

WAS – The Marlins bats have struggled with Zimmerman in the past and I don’t see anything to thing that would change this time around.

NY Mets vs. Philadelphia

7:05 PM	NY Mets – ROAD					Philadelphia – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54		0.248	0.694	19.90%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.241	0.678	23.20%	0.39		0.253	0.701	19.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Matsuzaka – RHP					Hamels – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.40	6.12	7.56	6.60		1.15	3.48	8.17	11.19
LAST 14 DAYS	0.74	1.42	6.64	11.60		1.07	3.21	9.00	15.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYM vs L		NYM BvP			PHI vs R		PHI BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Daisuke Matsuzaka – Believe it or not, Dice-K has had two straight starts in which he has only given up 1 earned run. Has he turned a corner? I surely don’t think so. I’m waiting for him to blow up again. The over/under in this game is low, but I think the Phillies could reach that number by themselves. Rating = 3

• Cole Hamels – Hamels has really pitched well in the second half of the season and he is facing a Mets team that is only batting .241 against lefties on the season. Hamels should have no problem with this lineup and should get some run support to put him in line for the win. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

NYM – Josh Satin and Eric Young are both good from the right side of the plate, but none of the Mets are recommended options today against Hamels.

PHI – If you play on a site that allows stacking you may want to throw a team in a GPP with a Phillies stack. I’m not convinced in Dice-K and I think the Phillies bats will have a big game. Domonic Brown, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Darin Ruf all should be on your radar.

Houston vs. Cleveland

7:05 PM	Houston – ROAD					Cleveland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	25.60%	0.54		0.253	0.732	21.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.239	0.679	25.20%	0.41		0.270	0.768	19.50%	0.52
SP STATS	Oberholtzer – LHP					McAllister – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.10	2.98	5.84	8.65		1.35	3.96	6.84	8.95
LAST 14 DAYS	1.25	3.75	6.75	8.00		1.43	3.86	5.63	8.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	HOU vs R		HOU BvP			CLE vs L		CLE BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brett Oberholtzer – Oberholtzer hasn’t been bad this season. He has a 2.98 ERA and is averaging almost 6 K’s per 9 innings. The problem is that he plays on the Astros and faces an Indians team that still cares about the outcome of the game. Rating = 3

• Zach McAllister – I didn’t think I would ever see this, but McAllister is a -240 favorite against the Astros. The Astros haven’t been bad offensively over the last month, but this line has me sold on McAllister. He is cheap and has good upside for his price. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

HOU – If you want to take the contrarian route, I suppose you could take a few Astros against McAllister who hasn’t exactly been unhittable lately. However, for H2H and 50/50’s, I would stay far away from the Astros.

CLE – The Indians have a lot of left handed bats in their lineup and I don’t love the lefty/lefty matchup unless the pitcher has reverse splits. But guess what? Oberholtzer gives up a .319 batting average to lefties and only a .213 batting average to righties. Stats like these really come in handy. Target Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley.

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh

7:05 PM	Cincinnati – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58		0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.242	0.709	20.30%	0.43		0.242	0.700	21.80%	0.42
SP STATS	Latos – RHP					Liriano – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.21	3.14	8.17	12.11		1.23	2.92	9.00	13.00
LAST 14 DAYS	1.52	5.27	4.77	6.10		1.25	2.25	6.75	11.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CIN vs L		CIN BvP			PIT vs R		PIT BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mat Latos – Latos is a very good pitcher, but he has a few things going against him in this one. First of all, I don’t like taking pitchers against the Pirates, they are a scrappy team that always finds a way to score runs. The second reason is that the opposing pitcher is Liriano who has been lights out this season. It will be tough for Latos to make his value tonight. Rating = 5

• Francisco Liriano – Liriano has had a few bad starts here and there, but he has been absolutely untouchable at PNC Park this season. He has a 1.37 ERA at home with a K rate of 9 per 9 innings. I like the matchup and the price tag. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

CIN – I think Liriano dominates at home once again which means I will be fading the Reds bats.

PIT – There are a couple of lefties on the Pirates that will have the splits in their favor. Justin Morneau and Pedro Alvarez both hit right hand pitching very well. I also like Andrew McCutchen who continues to put up numbers each night.

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