MLB Daily Grind Down June 11th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
We have a new look to the Grind Down with some great new statistics and some great new tables that are much more user friendly. Make sure to thank Ethan if you like them. Another Tuesday night in the industry and everyone knows how big Tuesday nights are. Let’s skip the cheesy intro and get straight into the action:
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
- FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
- K% – Strikeout Percentage
- K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP
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LA Angels vs. Baltimore
| 7:05 PM | LA Angels – ROAD | Baltimore – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.259 | 0.740 | 18.70% | 0.60 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 17.20% | 0.67 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.769 | 18.20% | 0.49 | 0.252 | 0.738 | 16.90% | 0.48 | |
| SP STATS | Vargas – LHP | Gonzalez – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.44 | 3.71 | 6.06 | 9.77 | 1.30 | 4.05 | 7.05 | 9.20 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.67 | 5.25 | 7.50 | 9.50 | 1.34 | 3.57 | 10.47 | 11.40 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
LAA vs R  | LAA BvP | BAL vs L | BAL BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5
- Favored Team – BAL -123
Pitcher Grind Down
BAL – Miguel Gonzalez has been pitching pretty well lately and has only allowed more than 3 earned runs once in his last 5 starts. He draws a tough matchup against the Angels though. Those Angels bats can get hot at any time and I just think there are better plays out there. Avoid
LAA – Right when I though Jason Vargas was putting it all together, he goes out and puts up a dud against the Chicago Cubs at home. Everything is saying to stay away from him today. Vargas has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.670 WHIP on the road and faces a tough Baltimore offense.
Batter Grind Down
BAL – There are a few Orioles that really hit lefties well. J.J. Hardy and Matt Wieters both have much more power when facing lefties and even though their BvP isn’t great, it’s not bad either. Vegas like the Orioles to score some runs and I do as well. Adam Jones and Manny Machado also get the lefty/righty splits in their favor.
LAA – The Angels bad season just won’t let up. Their offense should be one of the best in the big leagues, but they continue to struggle to score runs. They have a decent matchup today, but I wouldn’t take more than one bat here. Josh Hamilton has been heating up and is worth a look if he is fairly cheap.
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San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh
| 7:05 PM | San Francisco – ROAD | Pittsburgh – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.267 | 0.720 | 16.20% | 0.57 | 0.235 | 0.677 | 22.50% | 0.52 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.266 | 0.731 | 16.10% | 0.46 | 0.238 | 0.681 | 22.70% | 0.40 | |
| SP STATS | Lincecum – RHP | Cole – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.39 | 4.75 | 9.25 | 10.33 | |||||
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.35 | 4.76 | 8.11 | 9.55 | |||||
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| SFG vs R | SFG BvP | PIT vs R | PIT BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – PIT -125
Pitcher Grind Down
PIT – Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Pirates tonight and Vegas has a lot more faith in him than I do. Cole is making his major league debut and while he has posted a good ERA in the minors (2.91), he has only struck out 47 batters over 68 innings. My philosophy is to wait a few games before trusting these rookie pitchers. Avoid
SF – Tim Lincecum is coming off of one of his better starts of the season, but his numbers on the road have really been bad this season. A 5.67 ERA and 1.670 WHIP just aren’t numbers that I like to see for my starting pitcher. Plus the Pirates have had quite a few HR’s off of him in the past. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
PIT – Walker, McCutchen, Jones, and Barmes have all homered off of Lincecum in the past and this could be a good spot for the Pirates offense to get rolling again. I really like McCutchen today and I think Starling Marte could be a solid sleeper.
SF – Like I said, I like to wait and see how a young pitcher does in his first few starts before I take him, but that doesn’t mean that I won’t take hitters against him. Buster Posey and Hunter Pence both have a good matchup and could welcome the youngster to the big leagues with HR’s.
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Boston vs. Tampa Bay
| 7:10 PM | Boston – ROAD | Tampa Bay – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.275 | 0.804 | 21.40% | 0.73 | 0.259 | 0.745 | 18.20% | 0.64 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.840 | 20.40% | 0.62 | 0.287 | 0.786 | 18.10% | 0.51 | |
| SP STATS | Lester – LHP | Hernandez – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.19 | 3.60 | 7.31 | 11.08 | 1.35 | 5.03 | 8.10 | 8.65 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.65 | 5.11 | 6.69 | 7.05 | 1.00 | 2.57 | 7.07 | 12.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| BOS vs R | BOS BvP | TBR vs L | TBR BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
- Favored Team – BOS -111
Pitcher Grind Down
TB – Roberto Hernandez has been very up and down this season. In his last 4 starts he has allowed 5, 4, 0, and 4 earned runs. He is not a consistent fantasy option and faces a tough Red Sox team that put up 6 innings in one run against the much better pitcher Alex Cobb. Avoid
BOS – Jon Lester has had some pretty decent success against the Rays over the years, but has allowed an average of 4 earned runs in his last 4 starts. The Rays have an offense that can put up runs in a hurry. Of the two pitching options, I would definitely prefer Lester, but I still think there are much better options out there. In Play
Batter Grind Down
TB – Ben Zobrist is on fire right now. He is riding a 7 game hit streak and has 9 hits in his last 3 games. Sure he only has 8 hits against Lester while striking out 17 times, but sometimes you have to ignore the BvP and ride the current hot streak. Desmond Jennings is another guy that could be in for a good night, he has an OPS of .868 against lefties.
BOS – Don’t be afraid to take a few Red Sox bats today. The fact is that Roberto Hernandez just can’t be relied on and it could be one of those nights where he blows up early. Jacoby Ellsbury is stealing bases like nobody’s business and I’ve got a feeling that Big Papi will take Roberto deep.
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St. Louis vs. NY Mets
| 7:10 PM | St. Louis – ROAD | NY Mets – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.275 | 0.742 | 17.90% | 0.61 | 0.227 | 0.666 | 22.90% | 0.52 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.765 | 18.40% | 0.49 | 0.231 | 0.677 | 23.30% | 0.42 | |
| SP STATS | Wacha – RHP | Hefner – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.16 | 5.40 | 8.04 | 7.10 | 1.23 | 4.36 | 6.89 | 7.17 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.16 | 5.40 | 8.04 | 7.10 | 1.08 | 2.77 | 8.31 | 12.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| STL vs R | STL BvP | NYM vs R | NYM BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – STL -125
Pitcher Grind Down
NYM – Jeremy Hefner last 3 starts have been very solid. 19 K’s over 19 innings pitched while only giving up a combined 6 earned runs. The problem is that he faces the Cardinals. Even taking top Aces against the Cardinals makes me nervous, let alone taking Hefner. Sure the line is low, but why take an underdog if you don’t have to? Avoid
STL – Michael Wacha got blown up in his last start. I tried to warn everyone not to go too crazy about a guy that only had one start under his belt. I think the rookie has great promise, but again, he is a rookie and will be making his first career road start. I think this is a decent spot for the Mets offense. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
NYM – With Wacha making his first career road start, you can’t really be sure what to expect from him, especially after he got lit up in his last start. I’m taking a few Mets tonight in the various qualifiers, David Wright and Lucas Duda will be the most used.
STL – The Cardinals are a tough team. They get production out of their lineup from hitters 1-7. They are going to be playing in a pitcher’s ballpark so I don’t expect them to score a ton of runs, but I expect guys with high averages like Carpenter and Craig to have solid games.
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Milwaukee vs. Miami
| 7:10 PM | Milwaukee – ROAD | Miami – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.258 | 0.719 | 19.50% | 0.56 | 0.226 | 0.605 | 18.70% | 0.40 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.249 | 0.698 | 18.60% | 0.41 | 0.233 | 0.604 | 17.50% | 0.29 | |
| SP STATS | Peralta – RHP | Turner – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.73 | 6.16 | 5.54 | 6.09 | 1.08 | 0.69 | 4.85 | 11.50 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.77 | 5.29 | 5.82 | 7.33 | 1.08 | 0.69 | 4.85 | 11.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| MIL vs R | MIL BvP | MIA vs R | MIA BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – MIL -105
Pitcher Grind Down
MIA – Jacob Turner has pitched really well in his first two starts this season. He’s only allowed one earned run through 13 innings and will be pitching at home which is a pitcher friendly park. You can’t really expect too much when it comes to run support, but I think this could be a decent spot for Turner as the Brewers will be without Ryan Braun. In Play
MIL – Something has to give in this matchup. Wily Peralta and the Marlins offense have been equally terrible this year and now they get to face off tonight. I have a real tough time throwing the Wily out there but I think that’s the side I’m leaning on. For his price, he doesn’t have to do much. In Play
Batter Grind Down
MIA – The Marlins could be in for a big night offensively against Peralta, or it could be the other way around. I would maybe take a chance on Marcell Ozuna but I wouldn’t look too deep into the Marlins when you are selecting your hitters.
MIL – Turner has pitched well so far and the Brewers offense has disappeared many times this season. I expect a low scoring game in this one without many great fantasy options. Norichika Aoki has been hot though so he could be a solid value play.
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