MLB Daily Grind Down: June 12th, 2013
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
There are 4 early games on the schedule today so we will get to those first and then get into tonight’s action. Hopefully today’s games will be a lot more competitive than the Heat/Spurs game last night. It baffles me how the same two teams can have a 50 point difference in outcomes only two days later. But back to baseball, we’ve done all of the hard research for you, all you have to do is dissect the information and put together an awesome team. Easy enough right?
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
- FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
- K% – Strikeout Percentage
- K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP
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LA Angels vs. Baltimore
| 12:35 PM | LA Angels – ROAD | Baltimore – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.259 | 0.740 | 18.70% | 0.60 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 17.20% | 0.67 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.769 | 18.20% | 0.49 | 0.278 | 0.792 | 17.20% | 0.53 | |
| SP STATS | Williams – RHP | Hammel – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.13 | 2.87 | 6.08 | 6.26 | 1.50 | 5.18 | 6.43 | 8.63 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.24 | 3.86 | 7.27 | 6.53 | 1.40 | 4.58 | 5.76 | 7.73 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
LAA vs R  | LAA BvP | BAL vs R | BAL BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5
- Favored Team – BAL -125
Pitcher Grind Down
BAL – This one isn’t exactly going to be a pitcher’s duel. While Jason Hammel is a decent pitcher, he always seems to give up at least a couple of earned runs. He has really struggled at home this season with an ERA over 7 and a WHIP of 1.670. He draws a really tough matchup against the Angels. Even though the Angels can put up some duds, I’m not taking any chances against them. Avoid
LAA – Jerome Williams is a much better pitcher at home than on the road. This has been the case his whole career. His ERA and WHIP on the road this season aren’t terrible, but the matchup is just too tough to justify taking him today. The Orioles are a solid offense top to bottom. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
BAL – Manny Machado continue to rake and is batting .338 against righties this season. I think he finally breaks out of his one hit per game pattern and gets on base a couple of times. I also like Chris Davis in this one. I expect him to get at least one extra base hit and break out of his mini slump that he is in.
LAA – Mike Trout has homered in back to back games in Camden Yards and when he is hot, you just have to keep rolling with him. It would be nice if he could get some help from his teammates though. Josh Hamilton has been heating up a bit and can still be taken for a decent price. I also like Howie Kendrick who has been swinging a hot bat.
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Detroit vs. Kansas City
| 2:10 PM | Detroit – ROAD | Kansas City – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.283 | 0.785 | 17.00% | 0.66 | 0.258 | 0.682 | 17.40% | 0.53 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.779 | 16.30% | 0.52 | 0.249 | 0.663 | 17.70% | 0.36 | |
| SP STATS | Verlander – RHP | Shields – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.35 | 3.71 | 10.46 | 13.23 | 1.10 | 2.81 | 8.13 | 12.00 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.29 | 3.86 | 10.29 | 16.00 | 1.60 | 4.05 | 6.75 | 8.67 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| DET vs R | DET BvP | KCR vs R | KCR BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – DET -115
Pitcher Grind Down
KC – James Shields has been very good this season. Solid ERA, solid WHIP, and solid K rate. The only problem with Shields is his matchup with the Tigers. It doesn’t take much for the Tigers offense to get going and even though I think he will pitch well, I won’t be taking the risk. In Play
DET – There aren’t many games where Justin Verlander is only a slight favorite. Verlander has been allowing way too many hits, his WHIP is up to 1.350 when it was only at 1.170 last season. I think he has a good matchup today, but like I said yesterday, the Royals do not strike out very often, 2nd least in the league. For that reason, I think Verlander is a bit overpriced. In Play
Batter Grind Down
- With Shields and Verlander on the mound, it might be smart to stay away from the hitters on both teams. But if you have to take somebody, make it be Miguel Cabrera on the Tigers and Billy Butler on the Royals. Miggy is matchup proof and is 14/30 against Shields and Butler has had a great history against Verlander going 23/55.
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Cincinnati vs. Chicago Cubs
| 2:20 PM | Cincinnati – ROAD | Chicago Cubs – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.253 | 0.733 | 20.00% | 0.60 | 0.245 | 0.712 | 20.00% | 0.56 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.260 | 0.750 | 19.70% | 0.48 | 0.249 | 0.718 | 19.30% | 0.45 | |
| SP STATS | Leake – RHP | Wood – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.33 | 2.93 | 6.52 | 10.18 | 1.01 | 2.65 | 6.46 | 10.92 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.11 | 1.96 | 7.46 | 11.03 | 1.08 | 2.25 | 9.00 | 12.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| CIN vs L | CIN BvP | CHC vs R | CHC BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
- Favored Team – CIN -118
Pitcher Grind Down
CHI – Travis Wood just keeps on rolling along. He had a couple of bad starts in a row, but has bounced back with good outings against the White Sox and the Pirates. I still can’t decide if I’m a believer or if I think that he is just pitching over his head. Today’s matchup against this tough Reds offense will be telling. The value is there. In Play
CIN – A lot of people were big on the Cubs offense last night and I’m not really sure why. They are terrible against lefties and it showed. Today they face Mike Leake who isn’t a lefty, but he is a solid RHP. Leake has managed to stay out of trouble on the road this season and can be taken for around the same price as Wood. In Play
Batter Grind Down
CHI – The Cubs have had some good success against Leake, Rizzo is 6/11, Valbuena is 6/11, and Schierholtz is 7/13. Decent spot for the Cubs offense, but don’t waste too many roster spots on them.
CIN – The Reds seem to have Wood’s number. Jay Bruce has 2 HR’s off of Wood, Frazier is 5/10, Hanigan is 4/8. The only Reds that struggle against him are the lefties Votto and Choo. If you are going to take a batter here, make it Frazier.
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Atlanta vs. San Diego
| 3:40 PM | Atlanta – ROAD | San Diego – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.246 | 0.738 | 23.90% | 0.61 | 0.251 | 0.704 | 20.10% | 0.58 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.253 | 0.754 | 24.80% | 0.51 | 0.251 | 0.712 | 19.20% | 0.44 | |
| SP STATS | Maholm – LHP | Volquez – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.21 | 3.46 | 6.51 | 10.40 | 1.66 | 6.33 | 6.37 | 6.55 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.15 | 3.72 | 4.71 | 8.37 | 1.93 | 8.40 | 7.80 | 6.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| ATL vs R | ATL BvP | SDP vs L | SDP BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – ATL -113
Pitcher Grind Down
SD – Edison Volquez got absolutely hammered in his last start in Coors Field. He has given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, yet he is favored? Vegas has a lot more faith in Volquez than I do, but sometimes you just have to trust that they know what they are doing. The Braves do strike out the second most in the majors and Volquez is dirt cheap. In Play
ATL – Paul Maholm isn’t a guy that will get you double digit strikeouts, but he is pretty good at staying away from trouble and he typically doesn’t give up many runs. Between the two starters, I think Maholm has a better shot at having a good game, but the Padres are good against lefties so you never know. In Play
Batter Grind Down
SD – Everth Cabrera is stealing bases like nobody’s business and is batting over .400 against lefties this season. I love the matchup for him. All he needs to do is get on base once and get a steal and he has pretty much made value. Kyle Blanks is another guy to look out for, he is batting .340 with 4 HR’s against lefties this season.
ATL – You would think this is a great matchup for the Braves. Volquez has been awful and they have had good history against him. Justin Upton is 7/12 with 4 doubles. I also think Freddie Freeman is in a good spot.
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San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh
| 7:05 PM | San Francisco – ROAD | Pittsburgh – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.267 | 0.720 | 16.20% | 0.57 | 0.235 | 0.677 | 22.50% | 0.52 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.692 | 16.60% | 0.38 | 0.224 | 0.663 | 21.60% | 0.40 | |
| SP STATS | Zito – LHP | Liriano – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.54 | 4.06 | 5.15 | 7.68 | 1.17 | 1.75 | 11.75 | 15.33 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.58 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 8.00 | 1.22 | 2.50 | 11.00 | 13.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| SFG vs L | SFG BvP | PIT vs L | PIT BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – PIT -174
Pitcher Grind Down
PIT – What a story Francisco Liriano has been this season. He has been dominant this season with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.220 WHIP, and my favorite, averaging 11 K’s per 9 innings. While the Giants are a tough team, I think you have to roll with Liriano while he is hot. Vegas has him as a huge favorite and I’m on board. Target
SF – Never trust Barry Zito on the road. Just don’t do it. On the road this season, Zito’s ERA is 10.19 and his WHIP is 2.490. Just awful. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
PIT – Andrew McCutchen is one of my favorite plays today. Not only does he crush lefties, but Zito’s terrible road numbers should have the Pirates hitters salivating. Starling Marte also looks like a solid play.
SF – Liriano is striking everyone out right now. Maybe take a shot on Buster Posey if you can get him at a discount, but I’m not a big fan of the Giants today.
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