MLB Daily Grind Down June 4th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
Another full Tuesday for us Grinders. There are plenty of solid pitching options tonight so the key to winning is going to be who can manage to avoid the ace that ends up having a bad game. Hopefully today’s Grind Down can help you do that by breaking down the matchups one by one:
Cleveland at NY Yankees
| Cleveland | NY Yankees | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankee Stadium | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Scott Kazmir – (3-2), 5.13 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.596 WHIP | David Phelps – (3-3), 4.65 ERA, 8.98 K/9, 1.357 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (65-262 H/AB) 0.248 BA-A, 26.72 K%, 0.805 OPS-A | PvB | (6-33 H/AB) 0.182 BA-A, 33.33 K%, 0.758 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 6.87 ERA, 5 HRA, 8.3 K/9, 1.909 WHIP | HOME | (2-2), 5.18 ERA, 1 HRA, 11.5 K/9, 1.521 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
CLE BvP  | CLE vs R | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.0
- Favored NYY -145
Pitchers
- Home David Phelps got rocked by the Mets in his last start and it sure took a toll on my bankroll. He didn’t even make it out of the first inning. But he had been pitching well before that, so I think we can give him a pass for that bad performance. The bad news for Phelps though, is that his matchup is much more difficult tonight. The Indians have firepower all the way down the lineup and I just don’t think it’s a great spot for Phelps. Avoid
- Away Scott Kazmir started off the season hot, then had a couple of bad starts, and is now coming off of a great performance against the Reds. For me, Kazmir is a big question mark at this point in the season and I don’t like taking pitchers that I don’t have any confidence in. Yes, the Yankees have a lot of left hand bats, but it’s hard for me to see Kazmir having a good game. Avoid
Batters
- Home I think both teams hitter’s are in play today. However, I would probably stay away from the left hand bats of the Yankees unless you can really find a cheap salary on a guy like Cano or Gardner. The solid plays here are Mark Teixeira and Vernon Wells.
- Away Phelps got blown up in his last start and I expect the Indians to put up a few runs today. Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana have been good lately and I think they are in play tonight.
Tampa Bay at Detroit
| Tampa Bay | Detroit | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerica Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Matt Moore – (8-0), 2.18 ERA, 8.27 K/9, 1.081 WHIP | Anibal Sanchez – (5-5), 2.79 ERA, 11.28 K/9, 1.127 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (3-25 H/AB) 0.12 BA-A, 16 K%, 0.6 OPS-A | PvB | (23-111 H/AB) 0.207 BA-A, 17.12 K%, 0.73 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (4-0), 2.32 ERA, 4 HRA, 8.1 K/9, 1.161 WHIP | HOME | (4-1), 1.7 ERA, 0 HRA, 13.1 K/9, 0.811 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| TBR BvP | TBR vs R | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.0
- Favored DET -137
Pitchers
- Home Anibal Sanchez has been a beast at home. He is 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA and a WHIP of only 0.810. He is a great option today against the Rays and has had some success against the big bats of the Rays in the past. Sanchez is a high strikeout pitcher that is always a threat to get you double digit K’s and I’m thinking that he gets some run support early. Target
- Away Matt Moore has really been solid this year, but his strikeout numbers have been really low over his last few starts. He also has to play in Detroit against the Tigers. While he could certainly have a good game, the more likely scenario is for him to allow 4-5 runs over 5-6 innings. Avoid
Batters
- Home Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta are both batting over .400 against lefties on the season so this could be a tough night for Moore. I don’t expect the Tigers to have a huge night, but both of these guys are in a good spot against the lefty.
- Away The Rays have struggled with Sanchez in the past and Sanchez is a high strikeout pitcher. Maybe take a shot on Evan Longoria, but other than that I would steer clear.
Miami at Philadelphia
| Miami | Philadelphia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Bank Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Ricky Nolasco – (3-6), 3.69 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.157 WHIP | Jonathan Pettibone – (3-1), 3.64 ERA, 6.13 K/9, 1.426 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (55-210 H/AB) 0.262 BA-A, 17.62 K%, 0.833 OPS-A | PvB | (5-22 H/AB) 0.227 BA-A, 13.64 K%, 0.636 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-3), 3.16 ERA, 5 HRA, 7.5 K/9, 1.162 WHIP | HOME | (2-1), 2.97 ERA, 4 HRA, 6.2 K/9, 1.22 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIA BvP | MIA vs R | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored PHI -160
Pitchers
- Home Jonathan Pettibone aka “Pettibone Junction” as named by the guys on GrindersLive has been pretty average of late after a solid start. Hitters seem to be figuring him out a little bit. However, he does face the Marlins who just let Kyle Kendrick throw a complete game against them. I think Pettibone is a solid value play, but I also think this is a decent spot for the Marlins. In Play
- Away Ricky Nolasco has posted some solid stats this season, but he does play on the Marlins so he is only 3-6. I expect him to pitch pretty well in this one, but he will have to watch out for those powerful lefties in Ryan Howard and Domonic Brown. In Play
Batters
- Home Ryan Howard and Domonic Brown both have good numbers against Nolasco and Brown is riding one of the hottest streaks we have seen in a long time. He now has 9 HR’s in his last 10 games. Howard and Brown both homered against Nolasco earlier in the year.
- Away I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the Marlins score at least 4 runs tonight. Whether that is enough to get them a win, I don’t know, but I think they are in a good spot. Marcell Ozuna, Chris Coghlan, and Derek Dietrich all keep racking up the hits. Don’t be afraid to take them tonight.
NY Mets at Washington
| NY Mets | Washington | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Jeremy Hefner – (1-5), 4.74 ERA, 6.63 K/9, 1.298 WHIP | Jordan Zimmermann – (8-3), 2.37 ERA, 5.57 K/9, 0.947 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (20-68 H/AB) 0.294 BA-A, 16.18 K%, 1.029 OPS-A | PvB | (34-138 H/AB) 0.246 BA-A, 21.74 K%, 0.754 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-3), 6.11 ERA, 5 HRA, 6.8 K/9, 1.429 WHIP | HOME | (5-0), 1.5 ERA, 1 HRA, 4.3 K/9, 0.944 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| NYM BvP | NYM vs R | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored WAS -175
Pitchers
- Home Jordan Zimmerman takes the mound tonight against the Mets as he looks to add another great start to his Cy Young resume. Zimmerman has been solid all season long, espeically at home where he is 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.944 WHIP. The best thing about Zimmerman is that he is able to keep his pitch count down and is averaging over 7 innings pitched per start. Great play today. Target
- Away When it comes to Jeremy Hefner, my thoughts are just to stay away, regardless of matchup. He is a low strikeout pitcher that struggles on the road. Oh and he plays for the Mets who rarely give any of their pitchers any run support. Avoid
Batters
- Home The Nats offense has been bad, but I will take a bad offense against a bad pitcher rather than going the other route. Danny Espinosa is likely going to be a popular pick today, he is close to minimum salary on almost every site, will probably be batting 7th, and has a great history against Hefner (5/10 with 2 HR’s). I also like Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman.
- Away The Mets haven’t hit Zimmerman well in the past and I don’t expect that to change tonight, just make the smart play and avoid them.
Texas at Boston
| Texas | Boston | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenway Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Justin Grimm – (5-3), 3.93 ERA, 7.59 K/9, 1.456 WHIP | Ryan Dempster – (2-6), 4.45 ERA, 10.27 K/9, 1.399 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (1-1 H/AB) 1 BA-A, 0 K%, 2 OPS-A | PvB | (31-113 H/AB) 0.274 BA-A, 26.55 K%, 0.991 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-2), 4.94 ERA, 4 HRA, 6.9 K/9, 1.573 WHIP | HOME | (1-5), 4.21 ERA, 8 HRA, 10.9 K/9, 1.213 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| TEX BvP | TEX vs R | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.0
- Favored BOS -138
Pitchers
- Home Ryan Dempster is your ultimate risk/reward pitcher tonight. He is a pitcher that has a very high strikeout rate, but he also gets in trouble often and will give up a good amount of runs. He has been better at home than he has on the road, but has to face that tough Rangers offense. You make the call, he is probably a better GPP play than a H2H play though. In Play
- Away Justin Grimm is a solid young pitcher, but he has an ERA close to 5.0 on the road and draws a really tough matchup against the Red Sox. The over/under on this game dropped from 10.0 to 9.0, but I personally think they had it right the first time. Grimm won’t last 5 innings tonight. Avoid
Batters
- Home I think this is a great spot for the Red Sox bats. Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Mike Napoli all hit lefties well and should be on your radar. I also like the sneaky play of Stephen Drew, he will occasionally get bumped up to that 6 spot in the lineup against right hand pitchers. If he is, his value gets a bump.
- Away I think what we expect to happen with Dempster is going to happen. He will pitch around 5 innings, strikeout 7-8 batters, and give up 3-4 runs. The trick is to find where those runs will come from. Adrian Beltre has really struggled against Dempster in the past so I’m avoiding him. Elvis Andrus is batting .283 against RHP and doesn’t strike out a lot. Mitch Moreland hasn’t been great away from home, but I could see him taking one deep.
