MLB Daily Grind Down May 16th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
Happy Thursday people! Or as I like to call it, the play in game to another great weekend filled with Qualifiers and monster GPPs. With only 8 night games on the schedule, overlay will be a concern so keep that in mind. Lyle Overbay gets my nod as the player of the day as he takes center stage in an NYY offense that seems primed to explode.
NY Mets at St. Louis
| NY Mets | St. Louis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch Stadium | 1:45 PM | ||||||
| Jonathon Niese – (2-4), 5.93 ERA, 4.61 K/9, 1.76 WHIP | Adam Wainwright – (5-2), 2.3 ERA, 8.51 K/9, 0.99 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (15-56 H/AB) 0.268 BA-A, 28.57 K%, 0.768 OPS-A | PvB | (17-58 H/AB) 0.293 BA-A, 22.41 K%, 0.931 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 8.4 ERA, 1 HRA, 4.2 K/9, 2.133 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 1.13 ERA, 0 HRA, 10.1 K/9, 0.688 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
NYM BvP  | NYM vs R | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored STL -220
If you feel the need to play the early start games then Adam Wainwright at home is awesome. You should use him. Jonathon Niese is bad so load up on STL batters.
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
| Milwaukee | Pittsburgh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNC Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Hiram Burgos – (1-1), 6.86 ERA, 5.14 K/9, 1.43 WHIP | Francisco Liriano – (1-0), 1.69 ERA, 15.88 K/9, 1.5 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (4-23 H/AB) 0.174 BA-A, 21.74 K%, 0.652 OPS-A | PvB | (22-88 H/AB) 0.25 BA-A, 25 K%, 0.818 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-0), 4.5 ERA, 1 HRA, 4.5 K/9, 1 WHIP | HOME | NO DATA | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIL BvP | MIL vs L | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored PIT -140
Pitchers
- Home If A.J. Burnett the lefty specialist can revitalize his career in PIT then why cannot Francisco Lirano? Lirano looked like his old self in his first start going 6.1 IP with 1 ER and 9 Ks. He draws a tough opponent today in a MIL team that hits lefties well. MIL is batting .234 on the road, .286 versus left-handers and .256 over the last 7 days. Wandy managed to keep that at bay yesterday and Vegas likes Lirano but do not be surprised if MIL gets it going against him. In Play
- Away Hiram Burgos last start was bad to say the least. He is a low K/9 guy so the benefit of taking him was his competitive ERA and WHIP. The numbers are not so competitive anymore. It was just one bad start, however, so we will give a chance to make amends. His two worst starts of the year have come on the road, though. PIT is batting .246 at home, .249 versus right-handers, and .255 over the last 7 days. Avoid
Batters
- Home Pedro Alvarez took Burgos yard the last time he faced them. I think all the left-handed bats are playable. Andrew McCuthchen has been hot producing 21.75 fp and is batting .312 at home.
- Away Carlos Gomez is the guy you want to look towards today. He is5-8 with 2 HRs versus Liriano and is batting .415 versus left-handers. Ryan Braun is 3-10 vs. him and is batting .438 verus left-handers. Jean Segura has been red hot producing 41.25 fp over the last week and is batting .370 versus left-handers. Norichika Aoki has also been hot producing 28.25 fp. The guy to avoid is Aramis Rameriz. He only has 5.5 fp over the last week and is batting .179 on the road.
Seattle at NY Yankees
| Seattle | NY Yankees | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankee Stadium | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Aaron Harang – (1-4), 7.3 ERA, 8.55 K/9, 1.42 WHIP | Andy Pettitte – (4-2), 3.83 ERA, 6.92 K/9, 1.28 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (26-82 H/AB) 0.317 BA-A, 12.2 K%, 0.878 OPS-A | PvB | (41-123 H/AB) 0.333 BA-A, 26.02 K%, 0.911 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 8.44 ERA, 3 HRA, 9.3 K/9, 1.406 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 5.71 ERA, 2 HRA, 4.2 K/9, 1.615 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| SEA BvP | SEA vs L | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored NYY -170
Pitchers
- Home Andy Pettitte has looked good again in his last two starts. His 5.71 home ERA makes me nervous to take him especially after watching SEA bat around on a much better pitcher yesterday in NYY. SEA numbers are not that good, however, so that outburst could be an aberration. SEA is batting .227 on the road, .249 versus left-handers, and .254 over the last 7 days.
- Away Aaron Harang is bad right-hander facing a loaded left-handed hitting team that crushes the ball at home. Danger Will Robinson! Danger! Avoid
Batters
- Home Gentlemen start your NYY stacks. Lyle Overbay ‘s numbers are notable. He is 11-24 with 5 doubles versus Harang.
- Away Jason Bay is 14-35 versus Pettite with 1HR. He is batting .325 versus left-handers. Jesus Montero has been known to hit lefties well also and is comfortable hitting in this park. Kyle Seager has been hot again producing 25.25 fp.
Cincinnati at Miami
| Cincinnati | Miami | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Mat Latos – (4-0), 3.04 ERA, 8.44 K/9, 1.27 WHIP | Jose Fernandez – (2-2), 3.65 ERA, 9.49 K/9, 1.16 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (22-76 H/AB) 0.289 BA-A, 27.63 K%, 0.789 OPS-A | PvB | (6-15 H/AB) 0.4 BA-A, 26.67 K%, 1.067 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-0), 2.66 ERA, 1 HRA, 8 K/9, 1.352 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 1.8 ERA, 1 HRA, 8.1 K/9, 1 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CIN BvP | CIN vs R | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored CIN -180
Pitchers
- Home Jose Fernandez has had a great season. He is only 20 years old and he is proving that he belongs in the majors. He has run into trouble on the road where he is a 4.33 pitcher. CIN spotted him for 5 ER in CIN this year. CIN is batting .233 on the road, .244 versus right-handers, and .279 over the last 7 days. Avoid
- Away MIL got to Mat Latos in his last outing ended his sick run to start the season. MIA is a far cry from MIL so look for him to get back on track today against an easy opponent. Matt Latos ‘s road ERA is 2.66 on the year. MIA is batting .217, .227 versus right-handers, and .214 over the last 7 days. Target
Batters
- Home Derek Dietrich and Marcell Ozuna offer value if you need to free up salary. Both are batting at the top of the order and are cheap.
- Away The left-handed bats are in play including Xavier Paul who should get the start. Shin-Soo Choo is batting .392 versus left-handers, and has produced 29.25 fp over the last 7 days.
Boston at Tampa Bay
| Boston | Tampa Bay | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropicana Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Felix Doubront – (3-1), 6.4 ERA, 9.81 K/9, 1.82 WHIP | Alex Cobb – (4-2), 3.09 ERA, 8.96 K/9, 1.22 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (22-73 H/AB) 0.301 BA-A, 17.81 K%, 0.904 OPS-A | PvB | (14-64 H/AB) 0.219 BA-A, 26.56 K%, 0.703 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 7.24 ERA, 1 HRA, 9.9 K/9, 2.195 WHIP | HOME | (3-0), 1.95 ERA, 3 HRA, 9.4 K/9, 1.048 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BOS BvP | BOS vs R | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored TAM -147
Pitchers
- Home Alex Cobb ‘s 13 Ks in 4.2 5 IP is not going to happen again. He is around an 8 K/9 guy but there is no doubting that he is off to a great start to the season. BOS got to him earlier in the year for 3 ER but that was on the road. Cobb has been a 1.95 pitcher at home so far this year. BOS is batting .261 on the road, .282 versus right-handers, and .256 over the last 7 days. In Play
- Away You remember how high everyone was on Felix Doubront at the start of the season? Well the ERA is way up and the K/9 is way down. As bad as he has been at home, he has completely fallen apart on the road. TAM has hit him very hard in the past, which seals the deal. TAM is batting .271 at home, .286 versus left-handers, and .289 over the last 7 days. Avoid
Batters
- Home Gentlemen start your TAM stacks! Luke Scott has 2 HRs in 6 AB versus Doubrount.
- Away The BvPs are low but the OU in this game is a decent 8.5 which means some runs should be scored. The left-handed bats are an option. Stephen Drew has been hot and has good numbers versus Cobb.
