MLB Daily Grind Down May 20th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
This Monday features a nice schedule of games with 13 going. Two of those happen early but 11 night games gives us plenty to work with. I consider Mondays practice for the huge tournaments that happen later in the week. It’s important to stay sharp by playing everyday. Here is today’s Grind Down to keep you on top of your own personal game.
The Early Start Action
I personally do not play these games because off days and minor injuries pop up randomly in baseball and I do not like leaving things to chance. If you feel the need to play these games then R.A. Dickey has held TAM to a .152 BAA so he should be a solid play. Hisashi Iwakuma is pitching really well also so there will not be many safe offensive plays to be had early in the day. If you play these games, your best bet is to gamble on the late night bats. A TOR stack is playable versus the young TAM pitcher. Franklin Gutierrez is 7-18 versus Kasmir. Outside of these plays, I think it is best to fade these games and the early start action altogether.
NY Yankees at Baltimore
| NY Yankees | Baltimore | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Yards | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| CC Sabathia – (4-3), 3.19 ERA, 8.22 K/9, 1.28 WHIP | Freddy Garcia – (0-2), 5.51 ERA, 3.35 K/9, 1.16 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (84-289 H/AB) 0.291 BA-A, 23.53 K%, 0.779 OPS-A | PvB | (85-287 H/AB) 0.296 BA-A, 16.03 K%, 0.906 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 2.74 ERA, 2 HRA, 5.9 K/9, 1.304 WHIP | HOME | ( W- L), ERA ERA, HR HRA, SO/9 K/9, WHIP WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
NYY BvP  | NYY vs R | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored NYY -145
Pitchers
- Home The low OU of 8 means Vegas has a ton of faith in Freddy Garcia. I think Vegas is way wrong in this one and fully expect Garcia to get hammered. The .296 BAA that NYY has against him only lays credence to my belief. Avoid
- Away Much has been written about CC Sabathia ‘s home record but his road ERA is better on the year so far. He is a legitimate ace. BAL is a tough opponent at home but Sabathia has proven himself to be a factor no matter what the matchup is. He should get the win today so his floor is very high. Target
Batters
- Home If you are playing the fade then Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy have good BvPs versus Sabathia.
- Away Everyone outside of Curtis Granderson has sick BvPs versus Garcia. If Garcia can give up 4 ER in 3.2 IP versus SDG then what will this NYY offense do to him?
Minnesota at Atlanta
| Minnesota | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Kevin Correia – (4-3), 3.35 ERA, 3.72 K/9, 1.23 WHIP | Julio Teheran – (2-1), 4.57 ERA, 5.69 K/9, 1.48 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (39-124 H/AB) 0.315 BA-A, 15.32 K%, 0.879 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-0), 0 ERA, 0 HRA, 8.6 K/9, 0.955 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 2.89 ERA, 0 HRA, 6.8 K/9, 1.5 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored ATL -170
Pitchers
- Home Julio Teheran is a huge favorite in this game but do not fall into that trap. His low K/9 ratio gives him little room for error and MIN is a much more potent offense than people give credit. Teheran has struggled at home with a 6.10 ERA and has a .365 average and 1.009 OPS to left-handed hitters. MIN two best hitters are lefties. Avoid
- Away Kevin Correia has been good on the year. His K/9 ratio may be low but ATL is like the Astros in the sence that they strikeout so much that it boost any starter’s value. He is a huge dog in this game but I think he gets the win and few Ks despite what Vegas thinks. In Play
Batters
- Home If you are a fan of BvPs then everyone has positive numbers versus Correia. Justin Upton remains hot producing 26 fp over the last 7 days. The rest of the team is cold and I think Correia gets it done today but that is just a hunch.
- Away Mauer and Morneau are both batting over .300 on the year versus right-handers
Philadelphia at Miami
| Philadelphia | Miami | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Cole Hamels – (1-6), 4.61 ERA, 7.53 K/9, 1.29 WHIP | Alex Sanabia – (2-6), 5 ERA, 5 K/9, 1.76 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (61-243 H/AB) 0.251 BA-A, 22.63 K%, 0.786 OPS-A | PvB | (7-29 H/AB) 0.241 BA-A, 17.24 K%, 0.897 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-0), 1.46 ERA, 0 HRA, 14.6 K/9, 0.649 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 0.9 ERA, 0 HRA, 9.9 K/9, 1.4 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| PHI BvP | PHI vs R | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored PHI -180
Pitchers
- Home Just do not play Alex Sanabia today. It is that simple. Avoid
- Away Cole Hamels is a monster favorite in a game with a low OU. He pitches much better on the road and MIA is the worst team in baseball. If you play on a site that lets you select him more than once then select him more than once. Target
Batters
- Home I still like Deitrich and Ozuna as value plays. One or the other ends up in my LU because of where they bat and their price. Tough matchup today, however, so I ill be fading them.
- Away Sanabia has struggled with the long ball so you have to like the PHI big left-handed bats. Howard is most likely out in this game so fade him but PHI should produce and has value.
LA Dodgers at Milwaukee
| LA Dodgers | Milwaukee | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Park | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Clayton Kershaw – (4-2), 1.4 ERA, 9.41 K/9, 0.87 WHIP | Yovani Gallardo – (3-3), 4.5 ERA, 6.23 K/9, 1.46 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (25-91 H/AB) 0.275 BA-A, 27.47 K%, 0.681 OPS-A | PvB | (36-141 H/AB) 0.255 BA-A, 29.08 K%, 0.709 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (3-1), 5.4 ERA, 2 HRA, 7.9 K/9, 1.292 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 2.29 ERA, 2 HRA, 9.6 K/9, 1.068 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| LAD BvP | LAD vs R | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored LAD -145
Pitchers
- Home Yovani Gallardo has run into trouble on the road but he has been his usual dominant self at home this year. He gets a little help today from a LAD team that is not swinging the bat all that well. LAD is batting .252 on the road, .238 and .222 over the last 7 days. I like Gallardo as a nice against the grain pick. In Play
- Away Clayton Kershaw is a stud. You do not need me to tell you that fact. He has a 1.40 ERA and 0.87 WHIP on the year. He is capable of GPP winning performances every time he takes the mound. He is a risky proposition today versus a MIL team that crushes at home. MIL is batting .283 at home, .279 versus left-handers, and .247 over the last 7 days. MIL has a .275 BAA vs. him but his upside is huge so he is always in play. In Play
Batters
- Home Rickie Weeks is 4-9 versus Kershaw with 3 doubles. Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez have positive BvPs as well. Norichika Aoki and Jean Segura have been very hot each producing over 30 fp in the last 7 days.
- Away Adrian Gonzalez has the best set of BvPs versus Gallardo. He happens to be the LAD best hitter and is playable. I would not look to far down this LU because they are trending down and Gallardo seems to be trending upward.
