MLB Daily Grind Down May 21st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
Well, um, I actually have a pretty nice little Tuesday planned, we’re going to go to Home Depot. … Maybe Bed, Bath, & Beyond, I don’t know, I don’t know if we’ll have enough time because I have to get into all of these major qualifiers all across the industry. I’m hoping Frank the Tank can carry us grinders to a win in these qualifiers.
NY Yankees at Baltimore
| NY Yankees | Baltimore | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Yards | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Phil Hughes – (2-3), 5.88 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.55 WHIP | Miguel Gonzalez – (2-2), 4.58 ERA, 5.64 K/9, 1.42 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (57-200 H/AB) 0.285 BA-A, 17.5 K%, 0.83 OPS-A | PvB | (13-60 H/AB) 0.217 BA-A, 21.67 K%, 0.617 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 5.94 ERA, 2 HRA, 7 K/9, 1.5 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 5.4 ERA, 4 HRA, 3.9 K/9, 1.543 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
NYY BvP  | NYY vs R | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.0
- Favored BAL -117
Pitchers
- Home Miguel Gonzalez is an average right hand pitcher which is what the Yankees tend to eat for dinner. The Yankees are loaded up with left handed bats and this should really be a tough spot for Gonzalez. He has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts and I expect that trend to continue tonight against the Yanks. Avoid
- Away Phil Hughes had strung together a few nice starts in a row before getting pummeled by the Mariners in only 2/3’s of an innings. Hard to see him bouncing back tonight against the Orioles in Baltimore. Vegas expects this to be a high scoring game and the Orioles are tough outs. I just don’t see the value here with all of the other options today. Avoid
Batters
- Home Hughes actually has pretty good BvP numbers against the big Orioles bats, but I think their luck changes a bit tonight. Chris Davis has been a beast this year and is batting .344 with 8 HR’s against RHP. He is in play today so ignore the BvP numbers there. But if you do need a BvP play, take a look at Nate McLouth, he is 7/9 against Hughes and can steal bases as well.
- Away Just like last night, load up on the left hand bats of the Yankees. I really don’t see any of the left hand bats being bad plays. Gardner, Cano, Hafner, Overbay, and Ichiro could all have a good game today against Gonzalez.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
| Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNC Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Matt Garza – | Wandy Rodriguez – (4-2), 3.25 ERA, 6.53 K/9, 1.06 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (30-98 H/AB) 0.306 BA-A, 26.53 K%, 0.939 OPS-A | PvB | (36-161 H/AB) 0.224 BA-A, 19.88 K%, 0.615 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | NO DATA | HOME | (3-1), 1.35 ERA, 2 HRA, 7.8 K/9, 0.675 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CHC BvP | CHC vs L | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored PIT -141
Pitchers
- Home Wandy Rodriguez has excellent numbers against the Cubs in the past holding them to a .224 batting average. He has also been very good at home this season with a WHIP of only 0.680. The only downside with Wandy is that his strikeout rate is only about 6 K’s per 9 innings pitched, but it could certainly be worse. The Cubs are only batting .218 on the road this season. Everything is adding up for Wandy to have a solid game. Target
- Away Matt Garza is back from the DL to make his first start of the season. He has looked fairly good in his minor league rehab starts and should be able to throw around 6 innings tonight. While I wouldn’t pay close to full price for Garza, if he is on any sites that have him at minimum salary, I think he is worth a shot against this Pirates offense. In Play
Batters
- Home Andrew McCutchen has really hit the ball well at home this season. He is also on a fantasy tear right now with 31.5 fantasy points over his last 5 games. I think he is in play today against Garza, especially since we aren’t sure what we can expect from him in his first start back. Pedro Alvarez is 5/10 against Garza and is always capable of a HR.
- Away The Cubs have not hit Rodriguez well in the past and all of the statistics you look at point toward Rodriguez having another good game against them. Starlin Castro could be deep sleeper pick, but he is only 4/22 lifetime against him.
Detroit at Cleveland
| Detroit | Cleveland | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Field | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Max Scherzer – (5-0), 3.98 ERA, 11.31 K/9, 0.99 WHIP | Corey Kluber – (3-2), 5.4 ERA, 8.01 K/9, 1.41 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (35-158 H/AB) 0.222 BA-A, 25.32 K%, 0.665 OPS-A | PvB | (22-64 H/AB) 0.344 BA-A, 20.31 K%, 0.969 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 1.23 ERA, 1 HRA, 12.7 K/9, 0.818 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 5.4 ERA, 1 HRA, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| DET BvP | DET vs R | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored DET -118
Pitchers
- Home I generally like to stay away from any pitcher that faces the Detroit Tigers, especially when that pitcher’s name is Corey Kluber. Kluber faced this same team a little over a week ago and allowed 8 earned runs. Avoid
- Away Max Scherzer has been very good on the road this season with a 1.23 ERA and 12.7 K’s per 9 innings. I think he is a safe bet to get you 7+ strikeouts, but this Indians offense has been really good lately and now has Michael Bourn back which only makes their offense better. Expect Scherzer to pitch well, but to allow a couple of runs. In Play
Batters
- Home The Tigers knocked around Kluber a week ago and I don’t know why they wouldn’t do the same again tonight. Miguel Cabrera continues to rake and is a great play today if you can afford him. Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta are also both in play. Just don’t overpay for any of these guys.
- Away The Indians offense is a tough one to predict. While you can usually predict when they will score runs, it’s hard to predict where the production will come from. The lineup is stacked from top to bottom. I think they will score a few runs today, but I’m not sure where they will come from and there will likely be plenty of K’s as well.
Tampa Bay at Toronto
| Tampa Bay | Toronto | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers Centre | 7:07 PM | ||||||
| Alex Cobb – (4-2), 2.89 ERA, 8.83 K/9, 1.17 WHIP | Ramon Ortiz – (1-1), 2.35 ERA, 2.38 K/9, 1.43 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (4-24 H/AB) 0.167 BA-A, 20.83 K%, 0.375 OPS-A | PvB | (4-13 H/AB) 0.308 BA-A, 7.69 K%, 1 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 4.74 ERA, 4 HRA, 8.1 K/9, 1.474 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 2.61 ERA, 0 HRA, 2.6 K/9, 1.258 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| TBR BvP | TBR vs R | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.5
- Favored TB -130
Pitchers
- Home Ramon Ortiz has made two solid starts in a row, but I am not buying it and neither is Vegas. Ortiz is 39 years old and has had an ERA over 5 over the last 3 seasons. I’m certain that he can’t keep up these type of numbers, he’s just not that good of a pitcher. The Rays have been hot and should knock him around a bit. Avoid
- Away Alex Cobb has really been good this year, but most of his great starts have been at home. On the road his ERA jumps all the way up to 4.74 and his WHIP jumps up to 1.474. He also runs into a Rays offense that is starting to find a rhythm. Vegas expects this to be high scoring and so do I. Avoid
Batters
- Home I like the Jays bats tonight, Melky Cabrera has been on a tear, Edwin Encarnacion has been on fire, Brett Lawrie is starting to hit the ball better, and oh I forgot about Jose Bautista. Feel free to use a few Jays in your lineup tonight.
- Away While I like the Jays bats, I love the Rays bats tonight. Ramon Ortiz is not anywhere near the type of pitcher that his numbers suggest and I fully expect the Rays offense to help fix that problem. The left hand bats of Matt Joyce, Kelly Johnson, and James Loney look like good plays as do the right hand bats of Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings.
Minnesota at Atlanta
| Minnesota | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Mike Pelfrey – (3-4), 6.57 ERA, 4.25 K/9, 1.77 WHIP | Tim Hudson – (4-3), 5.12 ERA, 6.88 K/9, 1.31 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (49-120 H/AB) 0.408 BA-A, 13.33 K%, 1.167 OPS-A | PvB | (6-56 H/AB) 0.107 BA-A, 19.64 K%, 0.339 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 7.43 ERA, 2 HRA, 6.1 K/9, 1.65 WHIP | HOME | (3-0), 2.84 ERA, 2 HRA, 8.2 K/9, 0.987 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.0
- Favored ATL -180
Pitchers
- Home Tim Hudson gets the start tonight and I think he makes a great play just because I think he is guaranteed to get the win tonight. Yes that’s right, I am guaranteeing the win for Hudson. If you have any ideas as to what I will have to do if he doesn’t get the win, feel free to post a comment! Hudson is good at home and has the BvP stats in his favor. Target
- Away Mike Pelfrey is just not very good folks. His ERA is over 7 on the season and not only does he have trouble getting out, but he has trouble getting strikeouts as well. Avoid Avoid Avoid
Batters
- Home All of the Braves bats are in play today against Pelfrey. Too bad we can’t take Hudson’s offensive statistics because even he makes a great play. Load up on the Braves, even B.J. Upton.
- Away The Twins have a fairly underrated offense, but they can disappear at times as well. I’m not a huge fan of them today.
