MLB Daily Grind Down May 5th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
I took a little flak a week ago for saying Felix Hernandez could get 20 Ks versus the Astros. He ended with 9, a solid total. 20 Ks in a game has only been done 3 times before. Kerry Woods, Randy Johnson, and Tom Cheney are the players who have done it. When I said he could get 20 Ks, I meant that the upside exist. Obviously, it is not very likely if it has happened only 3 times out of all the MLB games in history but Felix Hernandez is the type of player who goes deep into games and gets his fair share of Ks so it was possible to occur with him. It is even more possible to occur with Justin Verlander, today, when he squares off against those same Astros. I am not a fan of overlay but even I will not be fading this matchup.
Minnesota at Cleveland
| Minnesota | Cleveland | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Field | 1:05 PM | ||||||
| Mike Pelfrey – (2-3), 7.66 ERA, 2.85 K/9, 1.93 WHIP | Corey Kluber – (2-0), 2.25 ERA, 8.25 K/9, 1 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (10-34 H/AB) 0.294 BA-A, 0.21 K%, 0.853 OPS-A | PvB | (14-52 H/AB) 0.269 BA-A, 0.17 K%, 0.788 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 12.27 ERA, 2 HRA, 2.5 K/9, 2.318 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 9 ERA, 0 HRA, 9 K/9, 3 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
MIN BvP  | MIN vs R | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9
- Favored CLE -140
Pitchers
- Home Corey Kluber looked good in his last start versus KAN but that is fool’s gold because KAN just missed a lot of those pitches. His career numbers are not great. He faces a MIN team batting .227 on the road, .234 vs. right-handed pitching, .230 in day games, and .245 over the last 7 days. The OU and his low K/9 ratio make me think to look elsewhere. Avoid
- Away Mike Pelfrey has been really bad on the year. What is worse for daily fantasy than his 7.66 ERA and 1.93 WHIP is the fact that he has only 7 Ks in 5 starts. Avoid
Batters
- Home Drew Stubbs and Nick Swisher have positive BvPs. Jason Kipnis has been hot producing 33.75 fp over the last week. This guy was one of the best 2B in baseball are year ago so if his price has dropped jump on him today. CLE has been hot as a team and faces another soft matchup so feel free to load up on them as well.
- Away The BvP numbers are low but Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Trevor Plouffe have positive stats. Morneau has produced well over the last week. Kluber is not as good as his last outing would suggest so I think you can look towards MIN for fp today.
Oakland at NY Yankees
| Oakland | NY Yankees | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankee Stadium | 1:05 PM | ||||||
| Dan Straily – (1-0), 6.35 ERA, 13.78 K/9, 1.15 WHIP | Andy Pettitte – (3-2), 3.86 ERA, 6.99 K/9, 1.32 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (1-3 H/AB) 0.333 BA-A, 0.33 K%, 1.667 OPS-A | PvB | (12-44 H/AB) 0.273 BA-A, 0.32 K%, 0.659 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 2.7 ERA, 0 HRA, 14.9 K/9, 0.75 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 5.84 ERA, 0 HRA, 4.4 K/9, 1.622 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| OAK BvP | OAK vs L | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored NYY -145
Pitchers
- Home Andy Pettitte got hit hard by the Astros in his last start. The Astros hit left-handers very well so that is not all that surprising. Pettitte has been solid outside of that start even if his K/9 totals are on the lower side. OAK is batting .275 on the road, .281 vs. left-handers, .249 in day games, and .262 over the last 7 days. The OU is a little high for me but he should get the win and might be cheap after his last outing. In Play
- Away Daniel Straily is a really good triple A pitcher. NYY is far from a triple A team and destroy right-handed pitching. Avoid
Batters
- Home Robinson Cano because of his history and Lyle Overbay because he is hot are the most notable Yankees but everyone is in play today. Gentleman start your NYY stacks.
- Away Jed Lowrie is 4-10 vs. Pettitte with 1 HR. He is batting .342 vs. left handed pitching. Josh Donaldson has cooled off but just finished a massive hot streak and is batting .344 vs southpaws. Yoenis Cespedes is the hottest A and gains the splits in his favor today. I also like Brandon Moss in this stadium as a threat to go yard.
Seattle at Toronto
| Seattle | Toronto | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers Centre | 1:07 PM | ||||||
| Joe Saunders – (2-3), 5.25 ERA, 3.5 K/9, 1.47 WHIP | Brandon Morrow – (0-2), 5.29 ERA, 7.29 K/9, 1.58 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (42-138 H/AB) 0.304 BA-A, 0.11 K%, 0.79 OPS-A | PvB | (26-99 H/AB) 0.263 BA-A, 0.35 K%, 0.798 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-3), 12.51 ERA, 3 HRA, 3.3 K/9, 2.634 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 4.96 ERA, 4 HRA, 10.5 K/9, 1.653 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| SEA BvP | SEA vs R | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored TOR -160
Pitchers
- Home Brandon Morrow is not pitching well right now. He has given up 6 Hrs in his 6 starts and his fly ball to ground ball ratio is over 2-1 for fly balls. SEA does not scare anyone. They are batting .230 on the road., .234 in day games, .248 vs. right-handers, and .272 over the last 7 days with 11 HRs. Morrow is just too shaky for me to consider but he is the huge favorite in Vegas’s eyes. In Play
- Away Joe Saunders went 9 IP in his last start giving up 2 ER with 2 Ks. He had 20 ground ball outs in that start. His problems have not been at home this but on the road where he has a 12.51 ERA. TOR is batting .226 at home, .248 in day games, .232 versus left-handers, and .235 over the last 7 games. Avoid
Batters
- Home Emilo Bonifacio, Rajai Davis, Adam Lind, and J.P. Arencibia all have nice BvPs versus Saunders. Jose Bautista has been hot this past week. They way Saunders has been pitching on the road everyone is in play.
- Away Michael Saunders has been hot producing 31.25 fp. He draws a righty today and is 3-5 vs. Morrow. Jason Bay has been hot lately also and I like Kendrys Morales to come alive again on the road. He is 3-10 with 1 HR vs. Morrow, also.
Washington at Pittsburgh
| Washington | Pittsburgh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNC Park | 1:35 PM | ||||||
| Gio Gonzalez – (2-2), 5.34 ERA, 10.13 K/9, 1.38 WHIP | Wandy Rodriguez – (2-1), 3.91 ERA, 6.45 K/9, 1.07 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (8-49 H/AB) 0.163 BA-A, 0.18 K%, 0.531 OPS-A | PvB | (25-85 H/AB) 0.294 BA-A, 0.22 K%, 0.729 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 11.25 ERA, 1 HRA, 15.8 K/9, 2.625 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 0 ERA, 0 HRA, 7.2 K/9, 0.293 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| WSN BvP | WSN vs L | PIT BvP | PIT vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored Pick’em
Pitchers
- Home Wandy Rodriguez has always been a great home pitcher. He has yet to give up an ER at home this year. There has been a strong wind blowing in from center field the last couple of days in PNC Park. If that is the case to day then Wandy moves high up on my list of players to target. WAS is batting .219 on the road, .206 in day games, .198 vs. left-handers, and.202 over the last 7 days. The splits favor Wandy no matter what the wind is doing. Target
- Away Gio Gonzalez has struggled to open the season but the Ks have been there so his upside still exist. He draws a team that Ks a lot and takes the mound in a very pitcher friendly park. PIT is batting .266 at home, .254 in day games, .220 vs. left-handers, and .276 over the last 7 days with 17 HR. 17 HRS, yikes! The sample size is small but he has held this team to a .163 BAA. GPP are all about gambles. This is a gamble that could pay off. In Play
Batters
- Home PIT is hot and catching a struggling pitcher so I feel it is safe to use everyone. I really like Andre McCutchen and Russell Martin because the splits are in their favor. Martin has been hot and Andrew comes to life at home.Bith are 2-5 vs. Gonzalez.
- Away Jayson Werth is 5-13 vs. Wandy and Adam LaRoche is 8-23. LaRoche has come around the last 7 days producing 12.75 fp. WAS has really struggled with left-handers this year and the OU is low so I would avoid them. Bryce Harper has a mere .161 average versus left-handed pitching.
NY Mets at Atlanta
| NY Mets | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 1:35 PM | ||||||
| Jonathon Niese – (2-2), 3.31 ERA, 4.75 K/9, 1.47 WHIP | Tim Hudson – (3-1), 3.86 ERA, 6.17 K/9, 1.2 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (40-134 H/AB) 0.299 BA-A, 0.18 K%, 0.806 OPS-A | PvB | (41-166 H/AB) 0.247 BA-A, 0.13 K%, 0.675 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 5.73 ERA, 1 HRA, 3.3 K/9, 1.727 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 2.5 ERA, 1 HRA, 8 K/9, 1.056 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored ATL -115
Pitchers
- Home Tim Hudson has really only had one bad start on the season. His 2.50 home ERA is pretty good but his K/9 totals leave a little to be desired. He is only a slight favorite in this game so I think I will look elsewhere even though the BvPs slightly favor him. NYM is batting .257 on the road, .237 vs right-handers, and .195 over the last 7 days. In Play
- Away Jonathan Niese only two bad starts of the season have been his two start on the road. His BvPs versus ATL are not favorable but he catches ATL at the right time. ATL is batting .235 at home, .238 vs. left-handers and .215 over the last 7 days. In Play
Batters
- Home Chris Johnson is in play every time you see a left-hander. He is batting .448 vs. them. Justin Upton has phenomenal BvPs today. He has cooled off but is still the Braves hottest player with 14.5 fp.
- Away “David Wright and John Buck are the only two Mets producing. Lucas Duda and Miguel Tejad have the best BvPs versus Hudson.