MLB Daily Grind Down: Monday, August 19th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-08-19 19:58:35

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore

7:05 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					Baltimore – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.263	0.749	18.60%	0.63		0.265	0.757	18.30%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.251	0.733	18.80%	0.48		0.249	0.705	19.00%	0.44
SP STATS	Price – LHP					Tillman – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.06	3.17	7.03	11.42		1.29	3.73	7.59	11.13
LAST 14 DAYS	0.81	0.56	5.06	12.00		1.22	4.73	9.62	12.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs R		TBR BvP			BAL vs L		BAL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – TAM -130

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home You do not luck into a 14-3 record Chris Tillman has been good all year and the offense he plays in front of has been great. He draws a tough TAM team and a sick opponent on the hill in David Price. Plus, he has been slightly worse at home with an ERA over 4.00. TAM is batting .259 on the road, .251 versus right-handers, and .240 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away David Price has returned to fantasy ace status after a rough start to the year. He has a 2.14 ERA and .186 BAA since the All-Star Break. He has been a tick better on the road this year but BAL is a tough place to pitch. He is high risk/reward play today versus this BAL team that is tough but also Ks a fair amount. BAL is batting .259 at home, .250 versus left-handers, and .260 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Matt Wieters is 11-29 with 1 HR versus Price. Nick Markakis has positive BvPs as well. Chris Davis has been very hot with 33.5 fp over the last 7 days. Brian Roberts has been hot as well and hit left-handers for a high average. RG Stack Rating

• Away Evan Longoria is a sick 9-21 with 3 HRs versus Tillman. He has been hot with 27.5 fp over the last 7 days as well. RG Stack Rating 4

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Colorado vs. Philadelphia

7:05 PM	Colorado – ROAD					Philadelphia – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.734	19.80%	0.60		0.253	0.704	19.90%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.267	0.754	19.90%	0.49		0.254	0.698	19.60%	0.41
SP STATS	Manship – RHP					Martin – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.70	7.20	3.60	3.00		1.84	6.28	10.21	8.03
LAST 14 DAYS	1.70	7.20	3.60	3.00		1.84	6.28	10.21	8.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	COL vs R		COL BvP			PHI vs R		PHI BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5

• Favored Team – PHI -120

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Ethan Martin ‘s ERA after 3 games is all we need to about his bad side. The good side of Ethan Martin is that he is a high K pitcher and the PHI have allowed him to throw around a 100 pitches in his starts so he has upside if he can pull it together. COL is not as good on the road. I have seen worse plays in GPPs and Vegas has him slated to walk away with the W. COL is batting .282 at home, .266 versus right-hander, and .292 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Jeff Manship got bombed on COL his last time out but we all know that is a tough place to pitch. He pitched well on the road versus NYM the outing before that and the PHI are not that potent of an offense. He is listed as the dog and does not get that many Ks. However, I think he is in play on a multiple pitcher site tonight because of his low cost and the limited number of options. RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home Manship’s troubles last game came from the left-handed bats. Domonic Brown, Chase Utley and Cody Asche are your best plays. Darin Ruf has been productive over the last 7 days. RG Stack Rating 4

• Away Martin is allowing a 1.045 OPS to left-handers. Todd Helton, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson are your best bets but Martin is getting hit hard by everyone. RG Stack Rating 8

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Arizona vs. Cincinnati

7:10 PM	Arizona – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.257	0.713	18.50%	0.55		0.250	0.723	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.256	0.715	19.10%	0.45		0.247	0.714	20.30%	0.46
SP STATS	Delgado – RHP					Arroyo – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.26	3.52	6.19	9.02		1.15	3.51	5.34	9.49
LAST 14 DAYS	1.22	5.50	5.50	7.33		1.28	6.75	10.59	9.10
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ARI vs R		ARI BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – CIN -165

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I keep waiting for the bubble to burst on Bronson Arroyo season but he keeps pitching well. He has been great at home all year and has cost me quite a bit of money on the season because I have not taken him once all year and sometimes even stacked against him. I am a slow learner. I do not like him today even though he is the nice sized favorite because ARI owns a .361 BAA versus him as a team and I hold true to my take on him that his low K/9 make him only useful as a matchup play. I will not fault you for wanting to ride the hot hand if you want to use him. ARI is batting .262 on the road, .256 versus right-handers, and .273 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Randall Delgado has struggled with left-handers on the year giving up a .299 BAA. He also has allowed 12 HRs in 11 starts. These trends can only spell trouble for him today versus this CIN team that is much better offensively at home. CIN is batting .250 at home, .248 versus right-handers, and .205 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

Batter Grind Down

• Home CIN owns a .308 BAA as a team versus Delgado. Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, and Joey Votto have been hot for CIN. Shin-Soo Choo is batting .311 at home. RG Stack Rating 7

• Away Arroyo has manhandled right-handers at home this year but left-handers have had success versus him so Eaton, Kubel, Parra and Gregorius are worth a look. If you are a fan of BvPs then everyone is playable. Martin Prado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Aaron Hill have been hot for ARI over the last 7 days. RG Stack Rating 6

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LA Dodgers vs. Miami

7:10 PM	LA Dodgers – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.266	0.724	18.40%	0.56		0.231	0.622	19.50%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.272	0.732	18.00%	0.44		0.224	0.632	21.80%	0.34
SP STATS	Ryu – LHP					Fernandez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.23	2.91	7.35	11.70		1.02	2.45	9.63	12.27
LAST 14 DAYS	1.15	1.40	7.54	14.70		0.85	0.90	11.25	15.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAD vs R		LAD BvP			MIA vs L		MIA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 6.5

• Favored Team – LAD -130

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I love Jose Fernandez a little less now that his price has elevated and everyone is hip to the play. He has been an absolute beast at home with a 1.39 ERA and is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and .172 BAA since the All-Star Break. He runs into a tough draw in a super hot LAD team but the way he is pitching I do not think it matters. LAD is batting .274 on the road, .272 versus right-handers, and .277 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

• Away Hyun-Jin Ryu is having a great season. His number take a huge dip on the road where his ERA jumps up to 4.09 but he draws an easy matchup today in MIA who has struggled to score runs all year. He is 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA since the Break and plays in front of the hottest team in baseball. MIA is batting .235 at home, .225 versus left-handers, and .258 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

Batter Grind Down

• Home Justin Ruggiano and Donovan Solano have been hot for MIA. Giancario Stanton is batting .297 at home. RG Stack Rating 1

• Away Carl Crawford went 3-3 versus Fernandez the last time he pitched against them and Adrian Gonzalez hit a HR. Gonzalez, Crawford, Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig are batting over .300 versus right-handers. RG Stack Rating 2

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Houston vs. Texas

8:05 PM	Houston – ROAD					Texas – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.237	0.675	25.60%	0.53		0.263	0.742	16.90%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.234	0.669	25.30%	0.40		0.260	0.737	16.90%	0.47
SP STATS	Lyles – RHP					Garza – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.50	5.13	6.14	7.32		1.11	3.23	7.73	12.14
LAST 14 DAYS	1.64	6.23	7.37	7.70		1.13	4.80	7.80	12.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	HOU vs R		HOU BvP			TEX vs R		TEX BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – TEX -320

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Matt Garza takes the hill as the monster sized favorite. He gets the added bonus of playing the Astros so his K totals will get a serious bump. He did just get roughed up by this Astros team for 4 ER not that long ago in HOU. They hit 2 HRs versus him in that game. HRs have been a problem for Garza since moving to the AL. With plays like this that I know everyone will be using, I just need one reason to get off of them. That’s my reason but he is the obvious best play at SP. HOU is batting .249 on the road, .234 versus right-handers, and .253 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 10

• Away Lucas Harrell was a hot play at SP to start the season. He has fallen out of favorite with the gambling community. The massive line is les about Matt Garza then it is about Lucas Harrell. I have always though that if a player was able to do something once than he is capable of doing it again, barring injury of course. It is not out of the realm of possibility for me that Harrell pitches well today. I will not be using him but I also do not think that a TEX stack is a sure play. TEX is batting .268 at home, .259 versus right-handers, and .242 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

Batter Grind Down

• Home Fire up your TEX stacks. The big line means everyone will be sitting on them, though. Adrian Beltre is 6-12 with 1 HR versus Harrell. David Murphy has 2 HRs in 11 AB. RG Stack Rating 8

• Away Jason Castro is 3-9 with 2 HRs versus Garza. Brandon Barnes, and Chris Carter have a HR versus him as well in limited AB. RG Stack Rating 1

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