MLB Daily Grind Down: Monday, September 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-23 19:13:34

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

NY Mets vs. Cincinnati

7:10 PM	NY Mets – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.238	0.679	21.90%	0.41		0.254	0.730	19.80%	0.47
SP STATS	Harang – RHP					Cueto – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.34	5.69	7.21	7.21		1.09	3.02	7.78	10.12
LAST 14 DAYS	1.27	4.91	14.73	11.50		1.20	0.00	9.00	14.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYM vs R		NYM BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Aaron Harang – Harang has been pretty bad all season. He owns a 5.69 ERA and has given up at least 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. While he has struck out 18 batters over his last 2 starts, that’s not going to last. He’s a below average pitcher with a below average matchup against the Reds. Rating = 3

• Johnny Cueto – Cueto looked good in his first start since coming back from injury, but he is still going to be on a pitch count as the Reds get ready for the playoffs. In his last start, Cueto only threw 82 pitches and I highly doubt he tops 90 pitches today. So while the matchup is good, the upside is hurt a little by the pitch count. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

SEA – Cueto is holding opponents to a .218 batting average on the season and the Mariners haven’t been tearing the cover off the ball lately. Even though they are playing in a hitter’s park, I don’t see any value in the M’s bats.

CIN – The Reds are a great option against Harang today. Harang gives up a lot of runs and allows a high average to both left and right handed hitters. I like Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto.

Milwaukee vs. Atlanta

7:10 PM	Milwaukee – ROAD					Atlanta – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.254	0.714	19.70%	0.57		0.252	0.731	22.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.265	0.731	21.30%	0.44		0.252	0.735	22.60%	0.48
SP STATS	Estrada – RHP					Minor – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.15	4.26	8.21	9.89		1.08	3.19	7.96	11.47
LAST 14 DAYS	0.76	2.63	8.86	11.10		1.21	4.26	7.58	8.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIL vs L		MIL BvP			ATL vs R		ATL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Marco Estrada – In the last two months Estrada has an ERA under 3 while striking out close to a batter per innings. He’s been very useful because most people are afraid to play him. I don’t love the matchup against the Braves tonight though. They are good against right hand pitching and usually play well at home. Rating = 4

• Mike Minor – Minor has had an ERA of about 4.50 over the last two months which isn’t exactly how the Braves want him to be pitching heading into the playoffs. He’s been giving up a ton of hits. That said, the Brewers are the Brewers and they are only batting .235 as a team this month. Minor has decent value, but he’s likely going to give up a couple runs. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

MIL – Aramis Ramirez has been playing well lately and is 6/14 with a HR off of Minor in his career. Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy also hit lefties well but it’s not exactly a favorable matchup.

ATL – The Braves are facing Estrada who has really pitched well lately. I think the left hand bats of Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann are in play, but I don’t expect them to score a ton of runs.

Philadelphia vs. Miami

7:10 PM	Philadelphia – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.248	0.694	19.90%	0.52		0.231	0.623	19.80%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.701	19.90%	0.41		0.230	0.613	19.70%	0.31
SP STATS	Halladay – RHP					Eovaldi – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.45	6.71	7.50	6.85		1.37	3.79	6.64	8.33
LAST 14 DAYS	1.58	4.35	7.13	8.55		2.13	7.88	7.88	4.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PHI vs R		PHI BvP			MIA vs R		MIA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Roy Halladay – Even though Halladay has only allowed 5 earned runs combined over his last 3 starts, I will not be recommending him as a good play. He’s lost most of his velocity. Even though he is facing the Marlins in the very pitcher friendly Marlins Park, I think you can find better options. Rating = 4

• Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi is 1-1 against the Phillies this season with a 3.60 ERA. His numbers actually aren’t bad as he has a 3.79 ERA and almost 7 K’s per 9 innings. If you don’t mind taking a pitcher on the Marlins, I think Eovaldi could actually pitch well here and possibly pick up the win with Halladay pitching. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

PHI – Eovladi has been consistent against both left and right handed hitters. He’s kept his batting average against him fairly low. That said, if you don’t trust him I would look into a lefty/righty matchup for either Chase Utley or Domonic Brown.

MIA – Marlins Park is a huge ballpark so I don’t really love taking HR hitters when they play there. But the good news here is that most of the Marlins don’t hit many HR’s. They are singles and doubles hitters. There is definitely value here.

Houston vs. Texas

8:05 PM	Houston – ROAD					Texas – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	25.60%	0.54		0.262	0.740	16.80%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.256	0.707	25.60%	0.42		0.261	0.731	17.10%	0.46
SP STATS	Lyles – RHP					Holland – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.48	5.32	5.93	6.74		1.30	3.48	7.96	10.78
LAST 14 DAYS	1.98	8.68	4.95	4.55		1.76	8.59	5.07	2.73
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	HOU vs L		HOU BvP			TEX vs R		TEX BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jordan Lyles – Lyles has a 5.32 ERA while only striking out 5.98 batters per 9 innings. So if you want to take a pitcher that is going to give up as many earned runs as the number of batters he strikes out, Lyles is your guy. If you want to put together a winning team, Lyles is not your guy. Rating = 1

• Derek Holland – This could be a really nice spot for Holland to get his groove back. In his 4 September starts he has an ERA close to 8 while giving up a .341 batting average. The Rangers need a big start from him tonight and maybe a matchup against the Astros can get him going. He’s definitely underpriced across the board. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

HOU – Altuve and Villar both hit lefties well if you want to take a couple hitters against the struggling Holland. For me, I’ll be taking the other side of this matchup.

TEX – David Murphy, Geovany Soto, and Adrian Beltre all have a pretty good history against Lyles but I think Ian Kinsler and A.J. Pierzynski are also in play. Lyles gives up a lot of runs and this is a very hitter friendly park.

Toronto vs. Chicago White Sox

8:15 PM	Toronto – ROAD					Chicago White Sox – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.252	0.733	18.00%	0.62		0.251	0.683	19.30%	0.51
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.241	0.682	17.80%	0.42		0.243	0.659	19.70%	0.38
SP STATS	Happ – LHP					Quintana – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.49	4.82	7.64	7.57		1.24	3.49	7.48	9.65
LAST 14 DAYS	1.35	2.12	9.00	11.33		1.25	1.80	6.75	11.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs L		TOR BvP			CHW vs L		CHW BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• J.A. Happ – Happ is one of those frustrating fantasy players that you can’t seem to get right no matter what his matchup looks like. When I think he could pitch well he gets blown up and when he faces the Yankees, he pitches a great game. I like more consistency from my starting pitcher, but he does have a decent matchup against the White Sox. Rating = 4

• Jose Quintana – Quintana has a 3.26 ERA and is a pitcher with a pretty decent K rate. He’s had good success against the Blue Jays this season and could pitch well again tonight. You can’t count on run support, but if he is cheap, he’s in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

TOR – Jose Reyes and Rajai Davis both hit lefties well and both give you a good possibility of getting a steal as well. Other than that, I don’t love the matchup for the Blue Jays.

CWS – Dayan Viciedo and Paul Konerko both hit lefties well so if the Happ that isn’t very good shows up, both of these hitters could have good nights.

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