MLB Daily Grind Down: Monday, September 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-02 15:46:30

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

Chicago White Sox vs. NY Yankees

1:05 PM	Chicago White Sox – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.251	0.683	19.30%	0.51		0.246	0.685	19.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.691	19.30%	0.40		0.249	0.681	18.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Quintana – LHP					Hughes – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.24	3.66	7.56	9.75		1.42	4.91	7.59	7.65
LAST 14 DAYS	1.14	3.38	9.38	13.03		1.61	4.32	7.78	7.40
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHW vs R		CHW BvP			NYY vs L		NYY BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jose Quintana – Quintana is averaging 9.38 K/9 in his last 2 starts with a 3.38 ERA against. In his only other start against them, Quintana went 6 2/3 with 1 ER and 5 K’s (and it was fairly recently so not the piss poor Yankees lineups of June/early July). I like, but don’t love the play. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

• Phil Hughes – Hughes is 1-9 with a 5.79 ERA at home this season. He’s yet to face the White Sox who are certainly one of the lower-end offenses in baseball but I still can’t imagine recommending him. The line is pretty high and the only real upside is that he’s a -150 favorite. Starter Rating: 4 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

CWS – Hughes has been pretty bad all season, especially of late. He’s giving up a .293 batting average to lefties which makes Alejandro De Aza and Adam Dunn both intriguing plays.

NYY – The Yankees used to be a team that you wanted to avoid against left hand pitching, but now that they have Soriano, Jeter, A-Rod, and Reynolds, they are actually a pretty good team against lefties. I think all of those mentioned are in play except for Jeter, he just doesn’t look right yet.

NY Mets vs. Atlanta

1:10 PM	NY Mets – ROAD					Atlanta – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54		0.252	0.731	22.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.245	0.693	22.60%	0.41		0.253	0.737	22.60%	0.48
SP STATS	Matsuzaka – RHP					Maholm – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.87	8.68	8.90	4.55		1.40	4.37	6.06	8.60
LAST 14 DAYS	1.87	8.68	8.90	4.55		1.44	3.97	4.05	5.55
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYM vs L		NYM BvP			ATL vs R		ATL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Daisuke Matsuzaka – Dice-K has been what we thought he was….Not very good. He hasn’t even made it past the 5th inning in either of his starts which isn’t all that surprising considering he throws 25 pitches to every batter he faces (made up stat). Starter Rating: 0 out of 10
• Paul Maholm – Maholm has a lot going in his favor today, he is coming off of his best start in the last few months, he is pitching at home where he has a 1.88 ERA, and he is facing a Mets team that really struggles against left hand pitching. Maholm doesn’t have huge upside, but he’s a good play today against the Mets. Starting Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

ATL – If we have Dice-K rated as a 0 today, that means we are very high on the Braves bats. I think they are all in play today, but my favorites are the ones with the lefty righty splits in their favor. That means Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann.

NYM – There are a couple of Mets that hit lefties well in Eric Young and Juan Lagares, but it’s really hard to take them when they could easily score negative today.

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati

1:10 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.284	0.766	17.50%	0.49		0.251	0.723	20.10%	0.47
SP STATS	Wainwright – RHP					Latos – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.07	2.96	8.27	13.51		1.22	3.03	8.74	12.52
LAST 14 DAYS	1.22	5.50	11.00	12.33		1.10	3.00	6.86	11.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs R		STL BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Adam Wainwright – This game is basically a pick ‘em with two very good pitchers on the mound. Wainwright has been struggling a bit over the last two months though, In his July and August starts, his ERA is very close to 4 which is a lot higher than where it was earlier in the season. The Reds are a tough offense at home and I’m just not willing to pay for Wainwright. Starting Rating = 5
• Mat Latos – One of my general rules is to avoid pitchers that are facing a really good offense in a hitter friendly park. That happens to be the case today with Latos. Even though I would prefer Latos of the two pitchers, that Cardinals lineup doesn’t give you a break, they are tough 1-7. Starting Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

CIN – Shin-Soo Choo is really swinging a hot bat with 10 hits in his last 5 games. He would be one of the only guys I would consider taking against Wainwright. The other, is the ever matchup-proof Joey Votto.

STL – Cardinals have a tough matchup against Latos, but Carlos Beltran and Yadier Molina have both had really good success against Latos in the past so I wouldn’t rule out them having a good day.

Detroit vs. Boston

1:35 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Boston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.282	0.785	16.90%	0.65		0.273	0.780	20.40%	0.68
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.286	0.787	16.30%	0.52		0.282	0.807	20.20%	0.56
SP STATS	Fister – RHP					Lackey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.30	3.81	6.64	10.01		1.17	3.19	7.78	11.08
LAST 14 DAYS	2.04	5.60	6.28	7.40		0.91	2.45	4.50	10.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs R		DET BvP			BOS vs R		BOS BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Doug Fister – Fister is one of those guys that you can never really predict. He seems to always pitch well against the bad opponents and then get lit up against good offenses. He gave up 7 runs and 13 hits in his last start which was against the A’s and I don’t think the matchup against the Red Sox is any better, especially considering that it’s in Boston. Starting Rating = 4
• John Lackey – Lackey has been very good at home this season with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.1 WHIP. He is catching the Tigers at the right time as Miggy has been out of the lineup the last couple of games and may sit out again today. I think Lackey has pretty good upside if Miggy is out. Starting Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

BOS – When the Red Sox offense is firing, it is firing on all cylinders. I really like this matchup for both Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz, but at the same time, I wouldn’t rule out the likes of Pedroia, Napoli, Victorino or Drew.

DET – Victor Martinez has been red hot with 10 hits over his last 5 games, but if Lackey pitches the way he has at home all season long, he may not get up to bat with many runners on base.

Seattle vs. Kansas City

2:10 PM	Seattle – ROAD					Kansas City – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.706	21.70%	0.54		0.258	0.688	16.60%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.231	0.661	22.10%	0.39		0.257	0.687	16.70%	0.40
SP STATS	Hernandez – RHP					Duffy – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.14	2.97	9.33	13.11		1.06	1.10	9.50	13.03
LAST 14 DAYS	1.86	9.64	10.29	5.00		0.74	0.00	7.38	15.10
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SEA vs L		SEA BvP			KCR vs R		KCR BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Felix Hernandez – King Felix takes the mound against the very surprising Royals. They just keep winning games. I would typically be all over this type of matchup for Felix, but the Royals strike out less than every other team in baseball and have really been playing well over the last couple months. I know it is hard to ignore him, but I recommend taking a different Ace other than the King today. Starting Rating = 6
• Danny Duffy – Duffy is an impressive young lefty that really has a good K potential. So far in the bigs, he is averaging about 9 K’s per 9 innings which is always a good site to see for us fantasy guys. Duffy is coming off of a scoreless game against the Twins and faces a Mariners team that struggles against left hand pitching. Starting Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

KC – While I said that it’s probably smart to avoid Felix today, I’m not going to recommend taking hitters against him. I think the Royals will score a few runs, but I’m not sure where that production is going to come from.

SEA – The Mariners have a lot of left handed bats that you will want to avoid today against Duffy, but Nick Franklin and Kendrys Morales are two switch hitters that could be in play.

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