MLB Daily Grind Down: Saturday, July 20th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-07-20 18:41:13

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

It has been almost a week since I have written a Daily Grind Down and I have to say I have missed it. The baseball season may be winding down and there are far fewer fish to be had at this point in the year then there were at the start but this is the time the real grinders make a name for themselves. Last night, we had a very big tournament. I am happy with my respectable 14th place showing in it. Make sure you get in plenty of action today because there is always a letdown effect after big events and most of the GPPs will not fill. Here is today’s daily Grind Down to help you get ready.

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Tampa Bay vs. Toronto

1:07 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					Toronto – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.261	0.749	18.20%	0.64		0.252	0.732	18.80%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.288	0.795	18.60%	0.53		0.252	0.744	19.30%	0.50
SP STATS	Hellickson – RHP					Buehrle – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.20	4.67	7.45	9.75		1.37	4.89	5.97	7.89
LAST 14 DAYS	0.92	2.77	11.77	15.00		1.15	5.54	6.23	9.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs L		TBR BvP			TOR vs R		TOR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – TOR -111

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Mark Buehrle has actually been good on the year in TOR. I am not sure how much of that has to do with the park and how much simply has to do with the random impact of his up and down nature. He has put in some good games but he has also been hit hard often on the year. The most telling stat for today is that he is allowing right-handers to bat .288 versus him and TAM is a team that feeds off of left-handed pitching. TAM is batting .257 on the road, .288 versus left-handers, and .279 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away Players like Jeremy Hellickson can be your secret weapon in daily fantasy. He had a horrible start to the year but posted a 5-1 record in June with a 3.53 ERA and is off to an even better July with a 2.77 ERA. His career average is 3.43 ERA so odds are he gets close to that number by the end of the year. TOR is batting .260 at home, .252 versus right-handers, and .259 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home Jose Bautista is 7-18 with 2 HRs versus Hellickson. Melky Cabrera is 4-11 with 1 HR. Adam Lind and Jose Reyes are batting over .300 versus right-handers. RG Stack Rating 3

• Away This is a good spot to load up on the right-handed bats of TAM. Jose Molina has a very nice BvP line of 10-31 with 1 HR. RG Stack Rating 6

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Philadelphia vs. NY Mets

1:10 PM	Philadelphia – ROAD					NY Mets – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.257	0.714	19.60%	0.54		0.235	0.680	22.30%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.262	0.716	19.10%	0.42		0.237	0.681	22.60%	0.41
SP STATS	Hamels – LHP					Wheeler – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.23	4.05	8.23	10.25		1.43	3.54	6.75	10.00
LAST 14 DAYS	0.87	1.57	7.43	15.33		1.33	1.50	6.00	13.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PHI vs R		PHI BvP			NYM vs L		NYM BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – PHI -130

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home RG Start-Ability * Zack Wheeler 1 bad start on the year came at home but it was only one start. He is not a dominant pitcher like Harvey but he is still a viable option and he draws a PHI team that has been known to disappear even if they did score 13 runs yesterday. PHI is batting .265 on the road, .264 versus right-handers, and .262 over the last 7 days. *RG Start-Ability 6

• Away RG Start-Ability * Don’t look now but Cole Hamels is 2-0 in his last 4 starts and the Phillies have won all four of those games. His numbers are moving back down towards his career average. He posted a 3.97 ERA in June and has a 1.57 ERA so far here in July. He has been better on the road and I know people like to think the Mets offense is underrated but I am not sold on them especially at home. NYM is batting .222 at home, .237 versus left-handers, and .246 over the last 7 days. *RG Start-Ability 8

Batter Grind Down

• Home David Wright is 19-57 with 4 HRs versus Hamels. Eric Young is 5-11 versus him. Marlon Byrd has been producing over the last 7 days. Josh Satin is batting .448 versus left-handed pitching. RG Stack Rating

• Away If you are looking for a cheap play then Darin Ruf has been producing. He is also batting .400 versus right-handers. Young and Howard are batting over .300 versus right-handers as well. RG Stack Rating 2

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Atlanta vs. Chicago White Sox

4:05 PM	Atlanta – ROAD					Chicago White Sox – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.251	0.737	22.80%	0.60		0.249	0.686	20.30%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.255	0.748	22.90%	0.50		0.230	0.636	19.80%	0.35
SP STATS	Maholm – LHP					Peavy – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.36	3.98	6.41	9.58		1.16	4.30	8.87	11.36
LAST 14 DAYS	2.08	6.97	6.24	4.55
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ATL vs R		ATL BvP			CHW vs L		CHW BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – CHW -107

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home It is typically a very bad idea to take pitcher coming back from an injury because they may be limited to a pitch count and could be rusty. That being said I like Jake Peavy today because there are very limited options for the early action. Here is why. CHW is looking to move Peavy so they do not really care about saving his arm and ATL Ks at the 2nd highest rate so there is plenty of upside in the play. Plus, many players will be using Maholm versus this weak CHW offense so if you can hit on Peavy then you have won on 2 fronts. ATL is batting .244 on the road, .254 versus right-handers, and .246 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Paul Maholm has been horrible on the road with a 5.37 ERA. Plus, he is allowing right-handers to bat .296 versus him. CHW is a very right-hand heavy team. There is a reason why Vegas has him listed as the dog. CHW is batting .239 at home, .230 versus left-handers, and .286 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home Jeff Keppinger is 12-40 with 1 HR versus Maholm. I like the right-handed bats today to make some noise. De Aza is batting .312 versus left-handers. RG Stack Rating 5

• Away You know how this works. Peavy could be real bad in his first start back so consider all of ATL in play. Justin Upton is 4-6 with 1 HR versus him. Brian McCann is batting .320 versus right-handers. RG Stack Rating 6

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Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati

4:05 PM	Pittsburgh – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.697	22.10%	0.54		0.250	0.722	19.90%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.243	0.697	21.70%	0.41		0.251	0.723	20.00%	0.47
SP STATS	Burnett – RHP					Latos – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.17	3.06	9.90	12.00		1.28	3.53	9.53	12.21
LAST 14 DAYS	1.57	2.53	9.71	9.10		2.10	9.00	16.20	11.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PIT vs R		PIT BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – CIN -141

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Mat Latos is probably my favorite play of the morning. He has this great CIN home team behind him and he has held this very poor PIT road team to a mere .190 BAA versus him. He has been consistent all year and has a very respectable K/9. PIT is batting .240 on the road, .244 versus right-handers, and .246 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

• Away A.J. Burnett has been equally great on the year but I do not trust him today in CIN. He is a great against the grain GPP p;ay though since he gets plenty of Ks and could easily get the win on the road versus Latos. CIN is batting .257 at home, .251 versus right-handers, and .270 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home The big 3 of Votto, Choo, and Bruce are in play here. I would avoid all of the right-handed bats because Burnett is holding right-handers to a .179 BAA versus him. RG Stack Rating 2

• Away Not a lot of positive things happening with this PIT team today but if you have a feeling about a guy then use him. Pedro Alvarez ‘s day game HR streak is always worth a look. RG Stack Rating 3

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NY Yankees vs. Boston

4:05 PM	NY Yankees – ROAD					Boston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.684	19.60%	0.54		0.277	0.793	20.60%	0.70
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.246	0.699	19.40%	0.42		0.287	0.825	20.00%	0.58
SP STATS	Kuroda – RHP					Lackey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.06	2.65	6.40	10.48		1.14	2.78	8.36	11.88
LAST 14 DAYS	1.00	0.00	6.75	12.50		0.91	2.05	8.18	15.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYY vs R		NYY BvP			BOS vs R		BOS BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – BOS -155

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home John Lackey is the biggest favorite of the morning. I know he has a 1.32 home ERA and has been dealing all year but I am not sold on him. Call me pessimistic but I have a hard time believing that 34 year old pitchers can drop over a point off of their career ERA. Couple that with the fact that many NYY players have had much success versus him in the past and I think you have a player that is best to avoid today. I will not blame you if you ride the hot streak and play him. He has been great. NYY is batting .239 on the road, .246 versus right-handers, and .252 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Recently I have fallen in Love with taking pitchers who face BOS. Why? Bos strike out at the 6th highest rate. They are the league’s highest scoring offense which means there is a ton of risk involved in the play but that also means very few people will be using your pitcher which is a very good thing for GPPs. Hiroki Kuroda has been average on the road but he is more than capable of the type of game you need from an SP. BOS is batting .292 at home, .287 versus right-handers, and .270 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home BOS as a team has a .294 BAA versus Kuroda and is an abosolute beast at home so consider everyone playable. Dustin Pedroia ‘s 8-18 with 1 HR is the most notable stat. RG Stack Rating 5

• Away I would flirt with NYY’s left-handed bats today. Robinson Cano has the best BvPs with a 13-43 line but NYY as a team is batting .270 versus Lackey so consider everyone playable. RG Stack Rating 4

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