MLB Daily Grind Down: Saturday, July 6th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-07-06 17:38:10

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

It is another perfect split Saturday. There is a nice run of GPP action on both sides of the day today. So make sure you manage your bankroll to play in both waves of action. There are a few more Qs happening this weekend so be sure to get in on the action. Here is today’s daily Grind Down to help you get ready.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Baltimore vs. NY Yankees

1:05 PM	Baltimore – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.775	17.80%	0.66		0.240	0.682	20.10%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.252	0.724	18.50%	0.46		0.240	0.698	20.00%	0.42
SP STATS	Tillman – RHP					Pettitte – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.30	3.68	7.28	10.59		1.36	4.40	6.91	9.29
LAST 14 DAYS	1.39	4.00	6.50	11.67		1.63	6.11	7.33	6.40
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BAL vs L		BAL BvP			NYY vs R		NYY BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – NYY -110

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Andy Pettitte has been getting crushed in NYY. He has been a serviceable starter at times but he is nowhere near the player we are used to seeing or the player that his current salary reflects on most sites. Moreover, NYY has been really bad over the past month. They ranked 24th in runs scored in June so I am not sure they get the win today. BAL is batting .270 on the road, .245 versus left-handers, and .227 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

• Away I was right about Miguel Gonzalez yesterday. BAL’s pen blew that win for me and cost me some money. I like Chris Tillman today also because I am almost certain he gets the win and he is pitching fantastic with a 3.68 ERA and 10-2 record on the year. Like MG, he has a very good June ERA at 2.68 at NYY is still slumping. Who do you trust and old Andy with a slumping NYY team or a young Tillman in front of this great BAL offense? NYY is batting .240 at home, .243 versus right-handers, and .268 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home NYY owns a .305 BAA versus Tillman but I am going to selectively trust BIllfans77 thoughts on BvPs and say that Tillman has improved this year so those numbers are tainted. Still, Robinson Cano ‘s 10-19 with 2 HRs looks really appealing. RG Stack Rating 3

• Away Nick Markakis has the best set of BvPs versus Pettite. Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, and Matt Wieters all seem like good plays also since Pettitte is allowing right-handers to bat .309 versus him on the year. RG Stack Rating 6

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Minnesota vs. Toronto

1:07 PM	Minnesota – ROAD					Toronto – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.248	0.709	20.40%	0.56		0.250	0.731	19.10%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.244	0.708	20.20%	0.45		0.250	0.751	19.50%	0.52
SP STATS	Pelfrey – RHP					Dickey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.64	6.11	4.87	5.16		1.29	4.59	6.41	9.46
LAST 14 DAYS						0.86	3.27	6.14	12.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIN vs R		MIN BvP			TOR vs R		TOR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – TOR -188

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I like R.A. Dickey. I have always had a soft spot for the older guys who come into their own late in the career. I am a big Kurt Warner guy also. My problem with Dickey is that because of his great success last year I think he is overpriced this year for his production. He could pitch well. He could pitch horrible and I cannot see paying upper middle tier for a player to me that is only slightly better than Lucas Harrell who is a near basement level salary player. MIN is batting .230 on the road, .242 versus right-handers, and .254 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away Mike Pelfrey has been pummeled on the road. TOR is a very good home team. That is not the recipe for success you are looking for when building a roster. TOR is batting .260 at home, .251 versus right-handers, and .263 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

Batter Grind Down

• Home Adam Lind is still crushing right-handed pitching. Jose Bautista is super hot with 47 fp over the past 7 days and is killing the ball at home. Jose Reyes has been hot also coming off of an injury with 29.25 fp. RG Stack Rating 7

• Away Dickey has struggled at home n that dome and I think we see another 6 run outburst so consider everyone playable. Clete Thomas, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and a hot Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier are your best plays. RG Stack Rating 6

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Oakland vs. Kansas City

2:10 PM	Oakland – ROAD					Kansas City – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.248	0.729	19.60%	0.62		0.258	0.684	17.40%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.249	0.722	19.30%	0.47		0.252	0.672	17.50%	0.37
SP STATS	Parker – RHP					Santana – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.25	4.11	6.29	8.72		1.04	2.84	7.22	11.56
LAST 14 DAYS	0.78	2.53	7.94	8.10		1.50	4.50	9.00	9.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	OAK vs R		OAK BvP			KCR vs R		KCR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – KAN -112

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home The only knock on Ervin Santana was that for a while, KAN was not scoring him any runs but the offense has come around and it is no secret that Santana is locked in right now with a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the year. We should see more of the same today. OAK is batting .254 on the road, .249 versus right-handers, and .240 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

• Away The hamstring injury plus his 4.53 road ERA are enough to scare me off of Jarrod Parker today. He already has a lower K/9 so I do not see the upside on gambling on a player whose only assest is he can go deep in games and hold a team scoreless. KAN is batting .249 at home, .254 versus right-handers, and .271 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

Batter Grind Down

• Home Eric Hosmer has been super hot and draws another right-hander today. KAN as a team has been clicking so consider everyone playable. RG Stack Rating 5

• Away Josh Donaldson has been undervalued on some sites for a long time now. He continues to produce with 20.5 fp over the past week. John Jaso is 7-17 with 1 HR versus Santana. Jed Lowrie is batting over .300 versus right-handed pitching. RG Stack Rating 2

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Miami vs. St. Louis

2:15 PM	Miami – ROAD					St. Louis – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.233	0.625	18.80%	0.43		0.275	0.746	18.00%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.236	0.622	17.80%	0.31		0.288	0.766	18.20%	0.49
SP STATS	Eovaldi – RHP					Kelly – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.94	2.00	5.00	9.33		1.46	3.86	7.28	2.32
LAST 14 DAYS	1.08	1.50	5.25	10.50		1.09	0.87	6.24	8.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIA vs R		MIA BvP			STL vs R		STL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – STL -170

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Joe Kelly has been pretty good as a long reliever but he did not even throw 80 pitches in his last 2 spots starts so you know how I feel about that. Honestly, MIA is a lot better and I do not seem him shutting down a team that rank 17th in runs scored in June and July. Plus, he gets limited Ks and they do not K very much. MIA is batting .231 on the road, .236 versus right-handers, and .242 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

• Away Nathan Eovaldi and Joe Kelly are kind of the same pitcher but Eovaldi plays for a worse team so he will always get the chance to start. Same rules apply to his pitch count although I think there is a chance that they open Eovaldi up in his fourth start. Still, STL is a nightmare of an offense at home and you would be crazy to take any pitcher in that environment. STL is batting .276 at home, .287 versus right-handers, and .269 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

Batter Grind Down

• Home Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, and Matt Adams are your best plays today but everyone is playable. They seriously need to find a way to have Adams in the LU everyday. RG Stack Rating 5

• Away I think MIA gets to Kelly a little today and even if they do not they will be facing STL bullpen for 1/3 of the game. Logan Morrison is hot and batting .391 versus right-handers. They are a sneaky stack if you are willing to play them. RG Stack Rating 5

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San Diego vs. Washington

4:05 PM	San Diego – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.249	0.702	20.80%	0.57		0.235	0.670	21.80%	0.50
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.246	0.691	21.20%	0.41		0.241	0.688	21.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Marquis – RHP					Zimmermann – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.47	3.74	5.88	9.47		0.95	2.46	6.36	12.95
LAST 14 DAYS	1.91	4.32	7.22	7.07		1.00	2.57	7.71	15.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SDP vs R		SDP BvP			WSN vs R		WSN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – WAS -200

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I feel like cutting and pasting my breakdown of Jordan Zimmermann because that is how consistent he has been. Now, he has a revitalized WAS offense behind him so he is even that much better. SDG is batting .250 on the road, .241 versus right-handers, and .223 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

• Away Jason Marquis was having a great year. Now, he is having a good year. His WHIP is slightly higher than his career average so by the time it is all said and done, he will probably be having just another average year. I expect for him to take a solid hit today. WAS is batting .262 at home, .247 versus right-handers, and .278 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

Batter Grind Down

• Home Adam Laroche is 10-35 with 2 HRs versus Marquis. Jayson Werth is 8-15 with 2 HRs, and Ryan Zimmerman is 5-15 with 1 HR. Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos are batting over .300 versus right-handers. Werth and Ian Desomand have both produced over 30 fp in the last week. RG Stack Rating 7

• Away If I were playing the fade then I would look to a hot Carlos Quentin and an undervalued Everth Cabrera coming off of injury. RG Stack Rating 1

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