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MLB Daily Grind Down: Sunday, June 23rd Part Two

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-06-23 06:22:12

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Tampa Bay vs. NY Yankees

1:05 PM Tampa Bay – ROAD NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING AVG OPS K% FPAB AVG OPS K% FPAB
SEASON 0.258 0.748 18.10% 0.63 0.239 0.683 20.00% 0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT 0.245 0.730 18.00% 0.49 0.239 0.694 20.30% 0.42
SP STATS Archer – RHP Nova – RHP
WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG
SEASON 1.67 5.03 8.44 7.55 1.80 5.16 10.54 7.20
LAST 14 DAYS 1.45 3.45 8.29 9.07
BATTER SPLITS Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
TBR vs R pop up 2 TBR BvP pop up 2 NYY vs R pop up 2 NYY BvP pop up 2

What Vegas Says

Pitcher Grind Down

Home – Ivan Nova – Both of these pitchers are easy avoids for me today. Wind blowing out at 12 MPH in the tiny Yankee Stadium. The line is at 9.5 runs too, so don’t try to convince yourself that it might not be a bad play.

Road – Chris Archer – See Nova.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees – The Yankees boast a lefty heavy lineup facing a pitcher allowing lefties to have an OPS just under .900 against. This bodes well for them today as I see Cano, Hafner, Overbay, Gardner and even Ichiro (who has looked better of late) to have big games. If you can stack, the Yanks are a great option. You might also look at a semi-stack of their heavier hitting lefties.

Tampa Bay – I never know what to think of the Rays. When I zig, they zag. I do know that Nova has struggled much more against righties than lefties this season and with the wind blowing out to left like it is, you should definitely look at Longoria today. Any of the batters in this game are in play though.

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Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City

2:10 PM Chicago White Sox – ROAD Kansas City – HOME
TEAM BATTING AVG OPS K% FPAB AVG OPS K% FPAB
SEASON 0.241 0.665 21.20% 0.50 0.258 0.680 17.40% 0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT 0.241 0.671 21.50% 0.40 0.249 0.661 17.80% 0.36
SP STATS Axelrod – RHP Shields – RHP
WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG
SEASON 1.41 4.39 5.18 7.07 1.12 2.72 8.07 11.80
LAST 14 DAYS 2.32 5.87 5.96 5.03 1.45 2.25 7.65 10.67
BATTER SPLITS Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
CHW vs R pop up 2 CHW BvP pop up 2 KCR vs R pop up 2 KCR BvP pop up 2

What Vegas Says

Pitcher Grind Down

HOME – James Shields – Shields is a tremendous play today. At home, he’s averaging nearly 12 FPPG. He also draws a White Sox team that has been lackluster and K-happy all season. He’s an elite pitcher facing a poor offense, so definitely TARGET.

AWAY – Dylan Axelrod – If his win probability wasn’t so low, I’d really like the play. Kansas City’s offense isn’t very good and although they don’t strike out a ton (just 17% per at bat over last 17 days) they also haven’t managed to put many runs across. If the W doesn’t matter on your DFS site, roll Axelrod for a good value.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox – Alexei Ramirez and Alex Rios both have decent splits against Shields and might be considered, but all in all this team is an avoid today for me.

Kansas City – Not much to love about a team with the 5th worst OPS in baseball in the last week. The one bright spot is Eric Hosmer who seems to have found his swing recently and might be a nice GPP/upside pick today. He does strike out a lot though so be wary of that on sites that deduct for K’s.

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Houston vs. Chicago Cubs

2:20 PM Houston – ROAD Chicago Cubs – HOME
TEAM BATTING AVG OPS K% FPAB AVG OPS K% FPAB
SEASON 0.241 0.683 25.70% 0.53 0.239 0.695 19.70% 0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT 0.232 0.665 25.70% 0.39 0.246 0.711 19.30% 0.44
SP STATS Lyles – RHP Samardzija – RHP
WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG
SEASON 1.29 3.22 7.11 9.92 1.19 3.35 9.99 12.54
LAST 14 DAYS 0.91 1.29 7.71 13.33 1.54 4.87 8.51 10.70
BATTER SPLITS Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
HOU vs R pop up 2 HOU BvP pop up 2 CHC vs R pop up 2 CHC BvP pop up 2

What Vegas Says

Pitcher Grind Down

HOME – Jeff Samardzija – I started my research by instantly targeting Samardzija for a huge game against the horrific Houston offense. Then I saw the wind. 15 MPH winds blowing out to left at Wrigley is bad, bad news for pitchers. Look for the ball to jump out of the park and while Samardzija may make a bunch of batters whiff, don’t be surprised if a few leave the yard as well.

AWAY – Jordan Lyles – Lyles is another guy I liked against the Cubbies who haven’t been all that great at hitting the baseball this year. But then again I saw the wind factor and it immediately turned me off. When that wind is blowing out in Wrigley, any fly ball to left can get pushed over the ivy. Avoid.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs – Rizzo is one of my top 1B plays today. He went yard on Friday and has the help of a windy Wrigley as well. I like Schierholtz as well who has cooled off but crushes at home and versus righties nonetheless. Gotta be a bit careful here though, Lyles has only allowed 1 HR to lefties all season.

Houston – I’m still avoiding the Houston bats because I can’t predict which one of their “all or nothing” hitters will put one deep today, but I do think they smack a couple out of the yard. The lefty Carlos Pena may be your best bet, with 2 HR in his past 3 games.

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Atlanta vs. Milwaukee

3:10 PM Atlanta – ROAD Milwaukee – HOME
TEAM BATTING AVG OPS K% FPAB AVG OPS K% FPAB
SEASON 0.242 0.725 23.80% 0.59 0.259 0.723 19.50% 0.57
VS. LEFT/RIGHT 0.253 0.753 24.10% 0.51 0.274 0.755 20.90% 0.46
SP STATS Maholm – LHP Figaro – RHP
WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG
SEASON 1.25 3.57 6.67 10.21 1.18 3.88 7.06 3.65
LAST 14 DAYS 1.25 3.15 6.30 9.00 1.05 4.32 7.22 8.40
BATTER SPLITS Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
ATL vs R pop up 2 ATL BvP pop up 2 MIL vs L pop up 2 MIL BvP pop up 2

What Vegas Says

Pitcher Grind Down

Home – Alfredo Figaro – The Braves suck on the road. They’ve also been pretty bad in the last week. I still wouldn’t touch Figaro today.

Road – Paul Maholm – Maholm had a decent outing his last time out against the Mets but all in all has struggled recently. The Brewers have a few guys that can hit lefties well but are averaging just .42 fantasy points per at bat in the last 7 days. It’s a matchup of struggling pitcher against struggling offense. I’d lean towards no-go on Maholm but the K-upside does make him tempting in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee – Jean Segura has an .880 OPS against lefties this year and Maholm has allowed 9 HRs to right handed batters. That also leaves guys like Carlos Gomez and Jonathon Lucroy in play for the Brewers in what could be one of the higher scoring games of the day. Weeks, Ramirez, Lucroy and Gomez have all also taken Maholm deep before.

Atlanta – The Braves might be the most frustrating offense in baseball. Constantly disappointing us DFS players, I just don’t know what to make of them. Figaro sucks so they are definitely on the table, but they all seem to be GPP plays only. Huge upside, huge downside. Maybe a guy like Uggla has one of his patented big games?

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Pittsburgh vs. LA Angels

3:35 PM Pittsburgh – ROAD LA Angels – HOME
TEAM BATTING AVG OPS K% FPAB AVG OPS K% FPAB
SEASON 0.237 0.682 22.70% 0.53 0.265 0.751 18.10% 0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT 0.241 0.690 22.70% 0.41 0.273 0.776 17.70% 0.51
SP STATS Morton – RHP Blanton – RHP
WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG WHIP ERA K/9 FPPG
SEASON 1.09 1.74 6.24 9.55 1.60 5.62 7.47 7.44
LAST 14 DAYS 1.09 1.74 6.24 9.55 1.52 6.17 13.66 10.10
BATTER SPLITS Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
PIT vs R pop up 2 PIT BvP pop up 2 LAA vs R pop up 2 LAA BvP pop up 2

What Vegas Says

Pitcher Grind Down

HOME – Joe Blanton – Blanton earned another start in the rotation with his 11K performance against the Mariners on Tuesday. He also nearly sent me to the DFBC with that gem. So while I’m fond of him for that, I can’t ignore just how bad he really is. The Mariners were struggling heavily coming into that game, and the Pirates just tagged up Jerome Williams on Saturday. Avoid.

ROAD – Charlie Morton – He’s only thrown 10 innings this season, allowing 10 hits and striking out 7 batters. I don’t know enough about him but the fact that he hasn’t gone 6 innings in either of his first two starts makes him undesirable today.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels – Mike Trout crushes righties and is always a good play, but even more so with a subpar opposing pitcher. Bourjos is also 10 for his last 27 and has been putting up some nice stat lines if you’re in search of some value. Last, but never least, Fat Albert seems to be heating up like he does every summer. He now has 2 HR and 7 RBI in the past week.

Pittsburgh – I like a bunch of the Pittsburgh bats today. Pedro “day game” Alvarez is scorching hot and in his favorite environment (before the sun sets). McCutch went yard on Saturday and can feast on Blanton. And Neil Walker might be a nice value option at a very weak 2B position. He hits righties well and had a couple of hits Saturday night.

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Grind Down: Page 2 – Page 3

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)