MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, July 25th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-07-25 19:15:46

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Atlanta vs. NY Mets

12:10 PM	Atlanta – ROAD					NY Mets – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.251	0.735	22.70%	0.60		0.236	0.684	22.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.254	0.744	22.80%	0.49		0.239	0.688	22.80%	0.42
SP STATS	Wood – LHP					Wheeler – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.09	2.45	10.64	2.63		1.52	3.58	7.27	9.53
LAST 14 DAYS	0.48	0.00	8.57	4.10		1.34	2.31	8.04	11.10
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ATL vs R		ATL BvP			NYM vs L		NYM BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – ATL -125

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I guess we can put down all the hype surrounding Zack Wheeler that said that many people in the Mets front office thought he was a better prospect then Matt Harvey. The Kid has been real good on the year but his two starts at home have not been. In fact, they were real bad. His home ERA is a fat 6.75 and those starts were against WAS and PHI. Couple that with the fact that the Mets do not seem to hi at home and I think I will look elsewhere. ATL is batting .243 on the road, .252 versus right-handers, and .241 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Alex Wood is a long reliever making a spot start, which means he will be on a pitch count. He is the slight favorite and this game has a low OU so it is not necessarily a bad play to take him on a multiple pitcher site if he is really cheap but understand his upside will be capped. NYM is batting .223 at home, .239 versus left-handers, and .254 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home Marlon Byrd and Juan Lagares have been producing for NYM. Jos Satin is batting .424 versus left-handed pitching. David Wright, Marlon Byrd and Eric Young Jr. are all hitting lefties well also. RG Stack Rating 3

• Away Dan Uggla and Andrelton Simmons have been hot for ATL. Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman are both still batting over .300 versus right-handers. RG Stack Rating 3
  h3. What Vegas Says

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Pittsburgh vs. Washington

12:35 PM	Pittsburgh – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.700	22.30%	0.55		0.240	0.682	21.00%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.240	0.690	24.20%	0.44		0.250	0.705	20.90%	0.43
SP STATS	Burnett – RHP					Gonzalez – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.23	3.07	10.10	11.95		1.15	2.89	9.06	11.86
LAST 14 DAYS	2.07	3.18	12.97	11.55		1.08	0.69	11.08	16.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PIT vs L		PIT BvP			WSN vs R		WSN BvP

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – WAS -135

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Gio Gonzalez is having some kind of season. He would have a sick record on the year if WAS was not so bad to start the year. He is holding left-handed hitters to a .150 BAA, which makes him even more enticing versus this PIT team that is poor on the road to begin with. RG Start-Ability 9

• Away A.J. Burnett numbers do not dip all that much on the road and we saw Liriano outpitch Strasburg yesterday so Burnett is worth a look in a GPP today. Low ERA and high K/9, he has the GPP winning stuff that can get you there. WAS is batting .259 at home, .249 versus right-handers, and .205 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Jayson Werth is very hot with 36.5 fp over the last 7 days. Wilson Ramos, Bryce Harper (if he plays), Denard Span, and Jayson Werth all hit right-handers at a high clip. Denard Span is 7-24 versus Burnett. Adam Laroche is 7-20 with 1 HR. Keep your eye out to see if Kurt Suzuki is in the LU because he has a 7-23 line versus Burnett and could make a nice value play. RG Stack Rating 2

• Away Andrew McCutchen has been hot over the last 7 days with 29.75 fp. He is batting .355 versus left-handers if you are playing the fade. Pedro Alvarez will be a hot play because of his day game HR totals but the .150 BAA versus left-handers makes me think to avoid him with all of PIT’s lefties. RG Stack Rating 2

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NY Yankees vs. Texas

2:05 PM	NY Yankees – ROAD					Texas – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.244	0.683	19.50%	0.54		0.261	0.738	17.30%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.236	0.649	19.80%	0.39		0.264	0.752	17.30%	0.48
SP STATS	Kuroda – RHP					Holland – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.05	2.65	6.33	10.61		1.27	3.10	8.58	12.31
LAST 14 DAYS	1.17	1.50	6.75	13.50		1.46	2.91	8.49	14.07
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYY vs L		NYY BvP			TEX vs R		TEX BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – TEX -150

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home The last time Derek Holland saw NYY he threw a complete game with 2 hits and 7 Ks. NYY has gotten worse since then and he has only gotten better. NYY is batting .240 on the road, .234 versus left-handers, and .227 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

• Away I am trying to figure out why the OU of this game is set so high because Hiroki Kuroda is not bad on the road with a 3.53 ERA and has had a stellar July with a 0.95 ERA. Plus, He has had great success versus TEX holding them to a .206 BAA. He could be a nice against the grain GPP play this afternoon. TEX is batting .266 on the road, .255 versus right-handers, and .260 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Leonys Martin is 2-2 with 2 HR versus Kuroda if you are looking for a nice value play. Martin, Beltre, and Pierzynski all hit right-handers well. RG Stack Rating 2

• Away Robinson Cano is 7-21 versus Holland with 1 HR. Brett Gardner has been hot with 22.75 fp over the last 7 days. Ichiro Suzuki has positive BvPs as well and is batting .324 versus left-handed pitching. RG Stack Rating 2

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Detroit vs. Chicago White Sox

2:10 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Chicago White Sox – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.280	0.781	17.40%	0.65		0.250	0.687	20.30%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.286	0.788	16.80%	0.53		0.256	0.701	20.50%	0.42
SP STATS	Verlander – RHP					Peavy – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.38	3.69	8.78	11.68		1.16	4.19	8.51	11.33
LAST 14 DAYS	1.51	4.58	4.22	7.40		1.17	3.00	4.50	11.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs R		DET BvP			CHW vs R		CHW BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – DET -140

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home For all the struggles he has had on the year, Jake Peavy has been just as dominant as any of the big aces are when he is at home with a 2.08 home ERA. That plus the fact that DET is only a slightly above average team on the road make him very playable today in a GPP. DET is batting .262 on the road, .286 versus right-handers, and .264 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

• Away Justin Verlander numbers keep gradually decreasing down to his career totals. They should take another step in that direction today versus a struggling CHW team that he has dominated in the past. CHW is batting .239 at home, .254 versus right-handers, and .245 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

Batter Grind Down

• Home If you are playing the fade then Adam Dunn has 3 HRs versus Verlander in 23 AB and Alex Rios is 12-54 with 1 HR versus him. RG Stack Rating 1

• Away If Miguel Cabrera plays then he is 13-45 with 3 HRs versus Peavey. Tori Hunter is 6-13 and Austin Jackson is 8-25 with 1 HR. The Tigers are a great right-hand hitting team with 9 players currently batting over .300 versus right-handers. RG Stack Rating 4

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San Diego vs. Milwaukee

2:10 PM	San Diego – ROAD					Milwaukee – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.691	20.60%	0.55		0.256	0.713	19.50%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.242	0.677	20.80%	0.39		0.255	0.716	18.50%	0.43
SP STATS	Volquez – RHP					Gallardo – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.60	5.73	7.49	7.82		1.42	4.58	7.20	8.90
LAST 14 DAYS	1.79	8.80	5.96	4.70		1.07	2.19	5.95	10.55
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SDP vs R		SDP BvP			MIL vs R		MIL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – MIL -140

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Yovani Gallardo season has been disappointing to say the least. All of his relevant numbers are down this year. After he looked like he was turning things around in June, he has had 4 bad starts here in July posting a 6.33 ERA. You cannot say this about many pitcher but SDG has had a lot of success versus him with a .305 BAA. SDG is batting .255 on the road, .243 versus right-handers, and .280 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Edinson Volquez is a gas can. Even his best starts are disappointing by fantasy standards. I know he had a decent outing in STL last game and MIL has been struggling without Braun and Ramirez but taking him today is far too great of a risk for little reward. MIL is batting .259 at home, .252 versus right-handers, and .207 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

Batter Grind Down

• Home Volquez is allowing left-handers a .305 BAA so load up on them. Rickie Weeks is 7-17 with 2 HRs versus Volquez. I think that MIL could come out big in this game so consider everyone worth a look. RG Stack Rating 7

• Away Nick Hundley and Yonder Alonso have been producing. Both hit right-handers for a high average and have positive BvPs versus Gallardo. Will Venable is 6-13 with 1 HR versus Gallardo also. RG Stack Rating 5

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