MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, June 13th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-06-13 17:27:27

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

I always talk about Thursdays being practice for the weekend. This Thursday is really good practice because it offers us many difficult scenarios to overcome. The morning side is flooded with great pitching, which limits are selection of easy bats. Sometimes, GPPS are one by the guy who was brave enough to take David Wright versus Adam Wainwright. If you play the obvious plays at bats this morning than you will have a ton of company. The night side offers the exact opposite with only two Aces throwing. Time to think outside the box and try to break ourselves away from the field. Here is todays Daily Grind Down to help get you ready.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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St. Louis vs. NY Mets

1:10 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					NY Mets – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.275	0.742	17.90%	0.61		0.227	0.666	22.90%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.289	0.765	18.40%	0.49		0.231	0.677	23.30%	0.42
SP STATS	Wainwright – RHP					Harvey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.02	2.34	8.53	15.23		0.91	2.10	9.50	14.15
LAST 14 DAYS	1.17	2.25	8.25	17.33		1.20	2.70	9.45	11.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs R		STL BvP			NYM vs R		NYM BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 6.5

• Favored Team – STL -130

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Matt Harvey left his last outing early against this same STL team do to a back issue. Both he and Terry Collins say that he is fine but do you really want to shell out a large slice of your salary for a player with this lingering over him? It could tighten up on him in the first inning and your LU would be done. Never mind the fact, that he is slated to get the loss and his production has taken a dip in his last 3 outings. STL is batting .270 on the road, .289 versus right-handers, and .321 over the last 7 days. Avoid

• Road Adam Wainwright 3.05 road ERA is better than 90% of MLB pitcher’s home ERA. However, what disturbs me is that he is allowing a .300 BAA versus him on the road and that NYM has a .318 BAA vs. him as well. The OU of this game is low and he is the slight favorite but I think this game goes over and I think the Mets get to him a little today. He is always in play because of his upside but my money will be invested elsewhere. NYM is batting .210 at home, .228 versus right-handers, and .216 over the last 7 days. In Play

Batter Grind Down

• Home If you are looking for two solid cheap plays then Daniel Murphy and Omar Quintanilla are both batting .667 versus Wainwright. There are positive BvP to be had by everyone so any of the NYM could make nice against the grain GPP plays.

• Road This might be a good spot to take a few STL hitters. If Harvey leaves early then STL can feed off of that weak NYM Bullpen and they went 5-15 against Harvey 5 days ago so they may be able to hit him anyway. Yadier Molina is batting .367 versus right-handers and has been hot producing 22.5 fp. Matt Holliday is on fire with 34.25 fp over the last 7 days. Matt Carpenter is batting .343 versus right-handers but anyone on STL could make for a good gamble today.
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Cincinnati vs. Chicago Cubs

2:20 PM	Cincinnati – ROAD					Chicago Cubs – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.253	0.733	20.00%	0.60		0.245	0.712	20.00%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.726	20.10%	0.48		0.249	0.718	19.30%	0.45
SP STATS	Latos – RHP					Samardzija – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.18	2.87	7.91	11.94		1.13	3.18	10.38	12.69
LAST 14 DAYS	1.10	1.86	8.95	14.03		1.14	2.95	11.09	14.70
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CIN vs R		CIN BvP			CHC vs R		CHC BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 6.5

• Favored Team – CIN -125

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Jeff Samardzija is one of my favorite pitchers in daily fantasy. His K/9 is over 10. What makes him fantasy gold is that he is not reliable so most of the field will not take him unless he has a great matchup. If you look at his game long, however, you will see that he is just as likely to have a bad game versus a bad team as he is to have one against a good team. His outcome has more to do with him than it does the batters he is facing. Very few pitchers have his upside. He has a higher K/9 then Matt Harvey. He had his way with CIN earlier this year going 6.0 with 1 ER and 8 Ks. CIN is batting .246 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .253 over the last 7 days. In Play

• Road Matt Latos is the model of reliability. His home and road ERA are both under 3. He has only given up more than 2 ER in 3 of his 10 starts. However, one of those 3 starts came here in CHC where he was spotted for 3 ER in 5 IP. CHC is batting .252 at home, .245 versus right-handers, and .196 over the last 7 days. There are no safer plays at SP today. Be wary of overlay. Target

Batter Grind Down

• Home None of the numbers look good for the Cubs today. Just avoid them.

• Road Todd Frazier is 3-9 with 2 HRs versus Samardzija. Paul and Choo have positive BvPs also. Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo are both batting well over .300 versus right-handed pitching.
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Washington vs. Colorado

3:10 PM	Washington – ROAD					Colorado – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.230	0.658	22.10%	0.48		0.271	0.779	18.80%	0.67
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.198	0.568	22.10%	0.28		0.264	0.738	18.40%	0.45
SP STATS	Detwiler – LHP					Francis – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.46	2.76	4.58	7.78		1.65	6.30	7.43	5.89
LAST 14 DAYS						2.25	9.00	4.50	2.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	WSN vs L		WSN BvP			COL vs L		COL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 11

• Favored Team – COL -133

Pitcher Grind Down

• Of course, neither pitcher is playable. I will say this Ross Detwiler has been pitching some great baseball and I am a little surprised that WAS is not listed as the favorite. He could get hammered today but I could also see him slowing this COL team down so be mindful of investing to much into COL stacks. Avoid

Batter Grind Down

• Home The high OU means everyone is playable. Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Nolan Arenado, and Troy Tulowitzki have been hot. Tulowitzki is batting .308 versus left-handers and .389 at home.

• Road Everyone from WAS is playable but Ryan Zimmerman is 9-19 with 1 HR versus Francis, Jayson Werth is 7-15 with 1 HR vs. him and Ian Desmon is 3-8 with 1 HR. Those are your best bets.
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NY Yankees vs. Oakland

3:37 PM	NY Yankees – ROAD					Oakland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.706	20.00%	0.56		0.248	0.731	19.40%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.248	0.723	20.00%	0.45		0.244	0.711	19.30%	0.46
SP STATS	Kuroda – RHP					Parker – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.10	2.84	6.49	10.39		1.40	4.68	6.60	8.54
LAST 14 DAYS	1.26	3.38	8.90	9.73		0.85	1.77	6.72	14.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYY vs R		NYY BvP			OAK vs R		OAK BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – OAK -110

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Jarrod Parker has 1.35 ERA this month and is holding hitters to a .163 BAA. Actually, he has made 6 good starts in a row and is riding a nice little hot streak. He is still cheap on most sites because of his horrible start to the season. His K/9 is a little on the low side but there are not many options going today so I think you have to consider him in single pitcher formats today. He is more than playable in multiple pitcher formats. NYY is batting .239 on the road, .245 versus right-handers, and .223 over the last 7 days. In Play

• Road Hiroki Kuroda is not the same pitcher on the road. I do not know what it is about NYY stadium but this is a trend that has gone on for a few years now. OAK park is forgiving but OAK also has a nice .292 BAA versus him and Kuroda has only had 1 good start in his last 4 outings. OAK is batting .239 at home, .243 versus right-handers, and .224 over the last 7 days. Kuroda is borderline playable if you want to gamble in a GPP but I do not trust him on the road with a slumping team behind him. Avoid

Batter Grind Down

• Home Seth Smith is 9-24 versus Kuroda. John Jaso is 4-8. Jed Lowrie and Josh Donaldson hit right-handers at a nice clip.

Away Brett Garner and Robinson Cano have been the only source of steady NYY production on this slumping team. The two lefties get another right-hander today. Cano is batting .321 versus right-handed pitching.
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Boston vs. Baltimore

7:05 PM	Boston – ROAD					Baltimore – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.275	0.804	21.40%	0.73		0.271	0.778	17.20%	0.67
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.287	0.840	20.40%	0.62		0.252	0.738	16.90%	0.48
SP STATS	Doubront – LHP					Gausman – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.62	4.84	9.28	9.74		1.78	8.84	7.07	3.78
LAST 14 DAYS	1.33	3.00	9.00	11.33		1.77	9.42	6.38	3.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BOS vs R		BOS BvP			BAL vs L		BAL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5

• Favored Team – BOS -115

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Kevin Gausman has been pummeled in his first 4 starts to the tune of a 8.84 ERA. You cannot even begin to consider him today against the leagues highest scoring offense. BOS is batting .263 on the road, .285 versus right-handers, and .283 over the last 7 days. Avoid

• Road Felix Doubront is going to have a start soon in which he goes 8 IP with 11 Ks and when he does you are going to need him on your LU in order to have a chance to cash. I do not think it will be today though against this tough BAL team but keep him on your radar. BAL is batting .266 at home, .264 versus left-handers, and .261 over the last 7 days. Avoid

Batter Grind Down

• Home Chris Davis is 5-10 with 1 HR versus Felix. Adam Jones has been hot producing 26 fp over the last 7 days. J.J. Hardy and Matt Wieters gain the righty/lefty splits in their favor today and do not forget about Steve Pierce who only starts versus left-handed pitching. He is 4-8 over the last 7 days.

• Road When a Gas can meets open flame. Bos Stack
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