MLB Daily Grind Down: Wednesday, September 11th

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-09-11 21:41:08

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

Kansas City vs. Cleveland

12:05 PM	Kansas City – ROAD					Cleveland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.258	0.688	16.60%	0.54		0.253	0.732	21.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.260	0.688	16.30%	0.40		0.248	0.723	21.70%	0.48
SP STATS	Shields – RHP					Kazmir – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.30	3.43	7.55	11.01		1.32	4.17	8.67	9.44
LAST 14 DAYS	1.56	5.50	11.00	12.33		1.18	3.27	13.09	13.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	KCR vs L		KCR BvP			CLE vs R		CLE BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Shields – Shields’ mind-boggling season continues on Wednesday as he takes to the road vs. Cleveland. His road K-rate and ERA are both impressive but his lack of consistency isn’t. He’s also struggled, posting a 5.11 ERA against Cleveland on the year. He has high upside and extreme implosion potential, so I’d say this is GPP-only. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

• Scott Kazmir – Scott Kazmir did what Scott Kazmir does best in his last start….baffle me. His ERA is over 4 but his K-rate is just below 9 K/9 on the year and he puts up big fantasy scores whenever he can avoid the “big inning”. I like this play today though since KC has a ton of left handed bats and Kazmir has been unhittable against those. Starter Rating: 7 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Jason Kubel is 9-20 with 2 HR off of Shields. Aviles is 10-27, Asdrubal is 5-18 and Santana is 6-20.
• Cleveland could be a solid sneaky stack, as Shields really collapses in his bad starts.
• Yan Gomes is 8 for his last 16 with a HR.
• Kazmir has allowed righties to an OPS over .800 on the season, Butler and Sal-Perez are in play.
• Jamey Carroll is 7-12 with a pair of doubles against Scotty-K

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati

12:35 PM	Chicago Cubs – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.240	0.702	20.10%	0.54		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.244	0.707	19.40%	0.44		0.251	0.723	20.10%	0.47
SP STATS	Samardzija – RHP					Leake – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.34	4.29	9.05	11.07		1.23	3.46	5.49	9.46
LAST 14 DAYS	1.72	7.82	11.07	8.10		1.27	6.38	5.97	7.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHC vs R		CHC BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeff Samardzija – On the road he’s averaging a K per inning pitched with a 3.50 ERA. But he has struggled vs. Cincy, boasting a 4.13 ERA against and an (0-1) record in 4 appearances. So far the first three pitchers are complete brain busters but again, I see him as a GPP only option. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

• Mike Leake – The Cubs touched up Cingrani who then left with spasms on Tuesday night and now Leake will take the bump against them. He pitched out of a recent funk in his last start, going 7 2/3 with 5 K’s and 2 ER. The Cubs are lackluster at best and more often than not they aren’t going to post 9 runs. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Todd Frazier is 5-14 with 2 HR off of the Shark. Choo has a HR off him as well.
• Samardzija has struggled against lefties, allowing them to a .754 OPS against. Votto, Choo, and Bruce are strong options.
• Mike Leake allowed righties to a .731 OPS against and Junior Lake is 6 for his last 12 with 2 HR.
• Schierholtz is 8-16 with a HR off Leake. Rizzo is 6-14 and Valbuena is 6-14 as well. All are good plays today for value.

Pittsburgh vs. Texas

2:05 PM	Pittsburgh – ROAD					Texas – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55		0.262	0.740	16.80%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.241	0.696	22.10%	0.41		0.260	0.737	16.70%	0.47
SP STATS	Burnett – RHP					Garza – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.24	3.31	9.72	11.81		1.16	3.70	8.04	11.66
LAST 14 DAYS	1.20	5.40	9.00	9.00		1.07	3.86	8.36	10.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PIT vs R		PIT BvP			TEX vs R		TEX BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• A.J. Burnett – Just when you thought he was returning to his early season form, he drops a dud at St. Louis and comes back to earth. He has struggled on the road all year long and goes into an Arlington Stadium that will be hot during the day against an offense that hits for pop. Starter Rating: 5 out of 10

• Matt Garza – So the Garza that dazzled Ranger fans upon arrival in Texas has disappeared and the issues that have always haunted him have returned. He’s given up 8 HR in his last 6 starts. He’s a heavy favorite but with the line at 8.5, I think there are better plays. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Adrian Beltre is 10-31 with a HR off Burnett in his career. David Murphy and Ian Kinsler also have donged against Burnett.
• Burnett has allowed lefties to a .764 OPS against (compared to .539 against Righties). Guys like Leonys Martin, Jurickson Profar and A.J. Pierzynski could provide nice value today.
• Andrus came into Monday night 6 for his last 16 with a HR.
• Andrew McCutchen is on fire of late (9 game hit streak) and has a HR and 2 hits in 8 AB’s against Garza.

Colorado vs. San Francisco

3:45 PM	Colorado – ROAD					San Francisco – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.264	0.735	19.80%	0.60		0.259	0.692	16.90%	0.51
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.266	0.749	19.90%	0.48		0.261	0.701	16.80%	0.40
SP STATS	Nicasio – RHP					Petit – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.40	4.68	6.84	7.71		0.92	2.05	10.34	15.53
LAST 14 DAYS	1.37	3.86	11.18	11.03		0.86	1.71	9.86	17.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	COL vs R		COL BvP			SFG vs R		SFG BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Juan Nicasio – The Giants are suddenly hitting OK again and Nicasio has a 5.12 road ERA. The only upside is his 2.7 ERA against the west coast G-men in 4 starts. Starter Rating: 5 out of 10
• Yusmeiro Petit – Not much to say after his near perfect game last week. He showed dazzling stuff and his K-rate is above 10 K/9 on the season. My biggest fear here would usually be a let down and some fatigue for a young guy coming off that monster performance, but he only threw 95 pitches. Starter Rating: 7 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Nicasio has reverse splits, allowing righties to hit for an .802 OPS against this year.
• Buster Posey is 3-5 with a 2B and Brandon Crawford is 4-11 with 3 XBH off Nicasio.
• Pence came into Monday 17 for his last 49 with 4 HRs in that span.
• Helton has the only notable BvP split for COL. He’s 4-9 with a double.

San Diego vs. Philadelphia

7:05 PM	San Diego – ROAD					Philadelphia – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.247	0.693	20.90%	0.54		0.248	0.694	19.90%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.254	0.734	21.30%	0.47		0.230	0.670	20.80%	0.40
SP STATS	Stults – LHP					Lee – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.28	4.07	5.68	8.38		1.05	3.01	8.38	13.08
LAST 14 DAYS	1.70	9.90	6.30	3.00		0.95	1.71	9.00	15.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SDP vs L		SDP BvP			PHI vs L		PHI BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Eric Stults – Pros: The Phillies are rolling out a daily lineup that looks like some of the LLWS teams could make a run at them. Cons: His 5.04 road ERA and 1.55 WHIP. GPP only here. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10
• Cliff Lee – The Pads exploded on Tuesday and hit lefties pretty well. Lee dominated them in his only appearance this season though, allowing 2 ER in 8 IP with 7 K’s. He’s obviously in play if you can afford him, I just don’t know if he’ll hit value on a steep price tag. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Stults is allowing righties to hit .303 against. Darin Ruf has a ton of pop in his bat and is a tremendous GPP play today.
• Avoiding SDP hitters today against Lee, for obvious reasons. If you want to go that route though, Blanks, Denorfia, Gyorko and Headley all hit lefties extremely well.
• Chase Utley is 2-5 in a limited sample off Stults.

Grind Down: Page 1 – Page 2