MLB Daily Grind Down: Wednesday, September 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-25 21:53:16

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

NY Mets vs. Cincinnati

12:35 PM	NY Mets – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.238	0.679	21.90%	0.41		0.254	0.730	19.80%	0.47
SP STATS	Matsuzaka – RHP					Latos – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.36	5.52	7.84	7.83		1.23	3.23	7.97	11.81
LAST 14 DAYS	0.77	2.08	6.23	13.50		1.64	6.39	3.69	4.10
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYM vs R		NYM BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Daisuke Matsuzaka – That is now 3 consecutive starts by Dice-K in which he has lasted at least 5 innings and allowed two or less runs. Does that mean that he is back? I suppose anything is possible, but I’m not buying it. He has an extremely tough matchup today against the Reds who really hit the ball well at home. I don’t see anything but a risk here. Rating = 2

• Mat Latos – Latos has been struggling as of late so I really think he will want to get a couple of good starts under his belt before the playoffs start. Latos has pitched well at home all season with a 2.89 ERA. I like the matchup against the Mets and his price has come down quite a bit. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

NYM – Daniel Murphy has a nice track record against Latos and hits righties well, but I think he is a bit overpriced for what you get with Murphy. David Wright back in the lineup really helps, but the rest of the lineup just isn’t very good. I think they will struggle today.

CIN – I’m not going to take a ton of bats against Dice-K today just in case he pitches well again, but I really like the left hand power bats of the Reds: Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce.

Washington vs. St. Louis

1:45 PM	Washington – ROAD					St. Louis – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.247	0.700	20.20%	0.54		0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.258	0.734	19.90%	0.46		0.277	0.747	17.70%	0.47
SP STATS	Zimmermann – RHP					Miller – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.10	3.18	6.94	11.87		1.21	3.12	8.94	11.04
LAST 14 DAYS	1.00	2.14	8.57	16.00		1.22	2.55	4.71	9.73
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	WSN vs R		WSN BvP			STL vs R		STL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmerman is coming off of one of his best starts in his career. He threw a complete game shutout against the Marlins while striking out 9 batters. He draws a much tougher matchup today in this Cardinals lineup. The Cardinals have hit him well in the past and with so many other options, I don’t see a reason to take a chance on Zimmerman. Rating = 4

• Shelby Miller – Miller has pitched well at home with a 1.77 ERA on the season. He is facing a Nats lineup that barely broke up a no-hit by by Michael Wacha last night. I think Miller has good value tonight and the fact that he is pitching at home makes me a lot more confident in taking him. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

WAS – If you are going to take any Nats hitters today, I would recommend taking a left hand hitter. Miller is giving up a .268 batting average to lefties which is a full 60 points higher than the average he is giving up to righties.

STL – Today is all about the Matt’s. I like both Matt Holliday and Matt Carpenter against Zimmerman. Carpenter has the lefty/righty matchup and the home splits in his favor and Holliday has a good track record against him.

Pittsburgh vs. Chicago Cubs

2:20 PM	Pittsburgh – ROAD					Chicago Cubs – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55		0.240	0.702	20.10%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.242	0.700	21.80%	0.42		0.230	0.687	21.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Liriano – LHP					Arrieta – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.21	2.88	8.94	13.00		1.36	5.06	7.68	8.08
LAST 14 DAYS	1.05	2.25	7.20	11.67		0.92	3.00	8.25	11.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PIT vs R		PIT BvP			CHC vs L		CHC BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Francisco Liriano – The Pirates have a Wild Card spot locked up, but they can still catch the Cardinals for the division so they are going to do everything they can to win these last few games. Liriano has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in all of baseball this season with his 9 K’s per 9 innings. The Cubbies don’t hit lefties well and I think Liriano will have another solid start. Rating = 7

• Jake Arrieta – Arrieta has an ERA over 5 on the season and faces a tough lineup in the Pirates. These last few games don’t mean anything to the Cubs, but mean everything to the Pirates. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

PIT – Even though this season has been a little different, Arrieta has always struggled against left hand bats in his career. I like both Pedro Alvarez and Justin Morneau. And as always, Andrew McCutchen is in play.

CHC – The Cubs are not in a great spot today. They face a pitcher that doesn’t give up many runs and strikes out a ton of batters. I’ll pass on the bats here.

Oakland vs. LA Angels

3:35 PM	Oakland – ROAD					LA Angels – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.244	0.718	19.40%	0.59		0.263	0.743	18.90%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.730	19.00%	0.48		0.270	0.753	19.10%	0.48
SP STATS	Straily – RHP					Weaver – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.24	4.08	7.38	9.16		1.16	3.36	7.04	10.74
LAST 14 DAYS	1.08	3.18	8.11	10.55		1.50	3.75	7.50	10.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	OAK vs R		OAK BvP			LAA vs R		LAA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dan Straily – Straily has pitched well this season and is having his best month of the year. In 4 September starts, Straily has a 2.31 ERA and is striking out 8 batters per 9 innings. Even though this Angels team has been pretty good this month, I think Straily will pitch well. Rating = 5

• Jered Weaver – Weaver has always been a pitcher that plays well at home. This season he has posted a 2.71 ERA at home and threw 6 scoreless innings against the A’s in his only start against them. You are always taking a risk with a pitcher facing the A’s, but I think Weaver is in a good spot. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

OAK – Looking at the A’s BvP against Weaver, they have really struggled against him in the past. While that doesn’t mean they will struggle against him today, there aren’t any specific hitters that jump out to me as good plays.

LAA – At this point in the season, I really only trust Mike Trout on the Angels. You could maybe go with Howie Kendrick if his price isn’t bad, he’s homered in back to back games. I like the pitchers in this one better than the hitters though.

Tampa Bay vs. NY Yankees

7:05 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62		0.246	0.685	19.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.734	19.00%	0.48		0.249	0.688	19.60%	0.42
SP STATS	Price – LHP					Hughes – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.12	3.43	7.35	11.05		1.43	5.07	7.48	6.80
LAST 14 DAYS	1.15	2.79	8.01	10.03		1.15	4.26	7.38	4.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs R		TBR BvP			NYY vs L		NYY BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Price – Price has pitched pretty well against the Yankees in his two starts against them this season, but I’m really not a fan of taking pitchers in Yankee Stadium unless I have to. I think there are far better options that are actually cheaper too. Rating = 5

• Phil Hughes – Hughes is the last guy that I want to see on the mound if I am a Yankees fan. He has been awful this season and has an ERA over 6.0 at home this season. Don’t over think this one, just avoid Hughes. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

TB – Quite a few Rays bats have good numbers against Hughes. Matt Joyce, David Dejesus, Wil Myers, and James Loney all have the BvP in their favor. You can’t count out Evan Longoria either. My favorite plays here are the lefties though because Hughes is giving up an OPS of .849 to lefties.

NYY – Alfonso Soriano and Alex Rodriguez both hit lefties well but neither one are really a great option against Price.

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