MLB Daily Plays: May 30, 2014
As the end of May approaches, it’s hard to believe that we are already two months into the season. This is around the time where you can really start dissecting current year data as opposed to relying on prior years. Yes, it’s finally alarming that JJ Hardy has no home runs. Yes, it’s finally alarming that Justin Verlander dip in velocity is real and he is simply no longer an elite pitcher. There are examples abound, but you get the point. The dog days of summer are approaching, but we must grind on. It’s a big night in the industry as DraftKings kicks off their big Showcase tournament tonight with the top 10 players advancing to tomorrow. Good luck to all the participants and this should be a fun sweat. With that, let’s get to today’s picks!
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STARTING PITCHER
Adam Wainwright – If you have been under a rock or living in a cave recently, here’s the Cliff Notes version: Adam Wainwright is good. He attacks hitters like no other pitcher in baseball and has superb command while still managing to keep hitters off balance with his fastball and devastating curve. Without a doubt, he’s been the best pitcher in baseball this year, and he’s an even better option when he pitches at home. I don’t care if the opponent is Toronto or San Diego, he’s a fine play any time he pitches at home. I would expect him to be up to his normal tricks against the Giants tonight.
Stephen Strasburg – As much as I don’t care to admit it, Strasburg is a solid option now that he has finally seen his price normalize to expected levels. He’s another pitcher who always seems to throw much better at home, and his underlying peripherals do indicate that he should improve from his early season numbers. The 81/18 K/BB ratio in just under 70 innings is especially encouraging, and I wouldn’t be scared of a matchup with the hit-or-miss Texas bats.
Marco Estrada – He’s developing into a pitcher that has an elite changeup when he’s on his game, and I love the matchup tonight against the Cubs. While two Cubs hitters have shown some historical success against him, Estrada has dominated the rest of the lineup — especially the left-handed bats of Rizzo and Schierholtz. He’s also a good bet for a win with the red-hot Brewers taking on the Cubs at home tonight. He’s a great option especially for cash games if you are on a multi-pitcher site or a site where you want to save a little cash and avoid the aces on the mound.
CATCHER
Brian McCann – Ricky Nolasco struggles against left-handed batters. Ricky Nolasco really struggles against Brian McCann. If you are a BvP believer, this is the point where you run to put McCann in your lineup. McCann owns a career mark of 20-for-58 with 8 home runs against Nolasco, which is probably due to Nolasco’s struggles with those good left-handed bats. McCann is a fairly easy choice as the top catching option of the night with this game being played in the LH batter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Miguel Montero – Mike Leake has a solid history against the Diamondbacks, but I’m not sold on him especially pitching at Chase Field. Montero is a great buy at this price with the Diamondbacks offense heating up in recent days and given his spot in the middle of the order. He’s fresh off a day or rest and should be a solid pick this evening.
FIRST BASE
Billy Butler – I expect a lot of folks to be on JA Happ tonight, and I think that’s a big mistake. The Royals don’t strike out and Happ was on the verge of being without a roster spot just a few months ago. Their right-handed bats make solid low-cost options, and Butler is a great play tonight (he’s my favorite play of the night on FanDuel where he is priced just $100 over the minimum). He’s logged five straight seasons with a wOBA over .345 and has a career wOBA of .387 against left-handed pitching. With my distaste for Happ, I will ignore his brutal current year stats and side with history for this matchup.
Edwin Encarnacion – He has been extremely low-owned over the past week since his price has gone up, but yet he continues to mash anything and everything in sight. The guy is on one of the hottest streaks I have ever seen in MLB and he gets to face a softer-tossing lefty in Jason Vargas tonight. All signs point to a continued chance at success, so if you can afford to spend up at first base there’s nothing wrong with rolling with Encarnacion yet again.
SECOND BASE
Jason Kipnis – I’ll keep this simple: Jason Kipnis is underpriced on every single DFS site right now. He struggled at the start of the year and then missed some time with injury, so every site has him priced down. He’s at home facing an average righty in Nicasio and makes the best play of the night at second base for the mid-range price.
Brian Dozier – Though the big-time results weren’t there when everyone was on him Wednesday night against Saunders, the final results weren’t indicative of how well he hit the ball. He doubled in the first inning and was about 4 feet away from a grand slam an inning later. He remains a fine play against weak left-handed pitching and there’s no reason to shy away from taking him against Vidal Nuno tonight – a guy who can’t consistently throw strikes to save his life right now.
THIRD BASE
Trevor Plouffe – I don’t care for a whole lot of options at third base today, so Plouffe will be a default play I go for on a lot of sites. He’s another guy that tends to hit much better against left-handed pitching, and his price has come down a little bit of late. With a lack of truly elite options at the position tonight that I want to pay up for, Plouffe is a great pick that will save you a little bit of cap space to spend elsewhere.
Evan Longoria – It seems like he’s one of the bigger “troll” players in DFS. Every time a lot of people flock to him he has an off night. When nobody is on him, he hits well. Longoria hit very well in last weekend’s series against Boston and there’s no reason to be scared of a matchup with Workman. At some point, he’s going to be a great bargain for the prices you can currently get him at across the industry. Hopefully he continues his hot hitting against the Red Sox tonight.
SHORTSTOP
Jean Segura – Has found a friendly spot in the leadoff role for the Brewers batting in front of Braun, Lucroy, and Gomez. The results haven’t been there the last few games but he’s in a good spot tonight against left-hander Travis Wood. He’s available at a really nice price tag right now and should be a solid value buy this evening.
Chris Owings – I don’t really care for a whole lot of shortstop options tonight, so I’m all for going cheaper at the position. Owings has found a groove hitting in the #2 spot for the Diamondbacks offense, and I would expect him to be there again tonight as the offense has been clicking for Arizona the past couple of nights — though nothing is a safe bet with Kirk Gibson piloting the plane. Assuming Owings is in there, he’s a solid value bat to save yourself some salary tonight.
OUTFIELD
Jay Bruce – He hasn’t done much since he’s returned from the DL but then again neither has the entire Reds offense. Theoretically, he should feast on the slow meatballs from Bronson Arroyo in Chase Field, but nothing in this game is a guarantee. With his upside and super price tag, when given this matchup he becomes one of my top overall outfield plays of the evening.
Jacoby Ellsbury – As mentioned above, Nolasco is not good against left-handed bats. Ellsbury is finally starting to heat up and had a huge game against the Cardinals on Wednesday. He always has significant fantasy upside due to his stolen base potential and also his ability to muscle up at times. He’s an elite play this evening as are most of those Yankee left-handed hitters.
George Springer – Speaking of on fire, take a look at what George Springer is doing right now. There’s simply nothing to say other than WOW! He has seven home runs in his past seven games, and there’s no reason to assume that he will slow down in another favorable matchup against Miguel Gonzalez tonight. Fire up Springer as a solid top-tier outfielder if you have the salary to spend.
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