Covering the Bases: Saturday, June 10

STLCardinals84, one of the best tournament players in the game, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.

Happy Saturday, Grinders! We have a wacky split slate on tap for us today. There are 11 day games on the schedule today, and DK has piled all of them into a massive early slate. Meanwhile, FD has pulled an odd maneuver by splitting the slates up in a strange way. The first five games have been placed on an “early only” slate starting at 1:10 PM ET, and that is fine. However, the 4:05 PM ET starts have been ignored entirely, while the FD “main” slate starts at 4:10 PM ET and also includes the night games. That’s the odd part.

The way the sites differ today makes this a bit of a challenge to break down in article form, especially when you consider the big slate and early lock on DK. What I am going to do is break down the full early slate from a DK perspective in order to get that out to you on time. Then, I will come back and add some cliff notes for the late games that are included on the FD main slate.

This should be an interesting day of baseball, so let’s get to it with some of my favorite MLB DFS picks for this Saturday! Have a great weekend everyone!

Saturday Afternoon Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

Top Tier Arms

Nathan Eovaldi vs. Rays
Aaron Nola vs. Dodgers
Kodai Senga vs. Pirates
Sandy Alcantara vs. White Sox
Joe Ryan vs. Blue Jays

Some spots still have “TBA” listed for the Minnesota starter today, while others have Ryan listed. I’m putting Ryan here for now, but just be aware that we could still use some confirmation on that.

This is a solid group of top pitchers, though we don’t exactly have elite matchups here with three of the five facing the Rays, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. The Pirates aren’t a pushover this year, and the White Sox have been playing better of late. The best choice of the aces is simply going to come down to stats given that they all have somewhat difficult matchups. As always, here’s a peek at those 2023 stats:

Eovaldi – 2.24 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 25% K, 5% BB
Nola – 4.30 ERA, 4.02 xFIP, 24% K, 6% BB
Senga – 3.75 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 29% K, 14% BB
Alcantara – 5.07 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, 21% K, 8% BB
Ryan – 2.76 ERA, 3.55 xFIP, 28% K, 5% BB

To be clear, I don’t think there is a clear SP1 on the DK slate today. No pitcher projects as massive chalk, and the top arms have tough matchups. I’ll give Eovaldi the nod for safety given that fantastic ERA/xFIP and sparkling K/BB ratio, but he’s not at “must play” status in a matchup against the Rays. If you have the money to spend, he’s just fine as an SP1, but you could just as easily pivot to a cheaper arm and hope that selection gets within a few points of Eovaldi.

Nola and Ryan would be next on the list for safety, though we again have the tough matchups to deal with (Nola vs. LAD and Ryan vs. TOR). We also need 100% confirmation that Ryan will start. Nola has looked better over his last few starts, and his numbers should continue to trend toward his longer term baselines. Ryan has the better numbers this year. I still prefer Eovaldi over both if you’re looking for safety.

Alcantara really isn’t on my radar here. His strikeouts aren’t in the same realm as the others, and he still feels a bit overpriced based on last year’s numbers and Cy Young award. He’s always been a better real life pitcher than DFS pitcher anyhow.

If you want the risk/reward SP1 option on the slate, Senga is your choice. I have no idea what to make of the Mets right now. They have lost seven in a row, which is frankly inexcusable with the talent on their roster. They blew three leads of 3+ runs in a sweep at the hands of the Braves earlier this week, and then they gave up 14 runs to the Pirates last night. Maybe they show some fire today. Maybe they don’t. It’s anybody’s guess at this point. Senga has a massive strikeout rate and a massive walk rate. It could go very well, or it could go very poorly. The Pirates continue to show more punch offensively than one would expect, too. Senga is not on the cash game radar for me, but he’s a very strong GPP choice if you are building a lot of lineups.

Other Viable Hurlers

Michael Kopech vs. Marlins
Taj Bradley vs. Rangers
Miles Mikolas vs. Reds
Bobby Miller vs. Phillies
Andrew Abbott vs. Cardinals
Cole Irvin vs. Royals

If you don’t want to spend top dollar on an ace today and you wish to save money in order to spend on the bats, I think that’s a perfectly viable strategy. There are a lot of good offenses to target, and I don’t expect massive pitching scores on this slate. Can we uncover a hidden gem or two from this tier?

Kopech – 4.33 ERA, 4.53 xFIP, 28% K, 11% BB
Bradley – 3.60 ERA, 2.89 xFIP, 33% K, 6% BB
Mikolas – 3.74 ERA, 4.15 xFIP, 19% K, 5% BB
Miller – 1.06 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, 25% K, 6% BB
Abbott – 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 6 K in MLB debut
Irvin- Ugly 2023 numbers in 3 starts – 3.98 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 17% K, 5% BB last year

At first glance, Bradley just seems like the obvious answer as a pitching choice today. However, I am not completely sold. He’s not really discounted compared to the top arms ($500 less than Senga), and the Rays are going to continue to be careful with him. He has yet to top 90 pitches in a single start all season, and he also has to face the Rangers. Don’t be fooled by the numbers. Those factors will limit his ceiling. He’s fine if he fits your build, but just know that he’s not going to get extended to 105 pitches and eight innings. He is averaging just five innings per start this season.

Kopech sort of fits the same mold, though he may have a bit more leeway for some extra pitches. I’d consider him as a reasonable pivot away from Senga depending on how the pOWN% numbers shake out. He’s also been much better of late with a 38/4 K/BB ratio over his last four starts and very strong numbers in three of them. In a matchup against the Marlins, I prefer Kopech over Bradley today.

Miller and Abbott are two other high-end prospects that are pitching this afternoon. Miller has been as advertised in his first handful of MLB starts, and that includes a very impressive performance against the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball last weekend. The Phillies haven’t looked as dangerous offensively as everyone expected, and I actually don’t mind this spot for Miller — especially since he is priced at just $7,000 on DK. On a points per dollar basis, he’s my favorite SP2 on the slate. You could take a shot on Abbott in GPPs too. He looked good in his debut and had eye popping strikeout rates in the minors. I don’t love him as a lefty against the Cardinals, but he’s on the radar.

After a terrible start to the year, Miles Mikolas has rebounded over the past month and a half. He had a 1.89 ERA in May and has steadied the ship as the Cardinals’ most consistent pitcher. However, he’s just not going to strike many batters out. Here are his strikeout totals in his last five starts: 0, 2, 5, 10, and 2. The double digit game is a clear outlier given his history (that tied his career high). If you’re playing GPP contests, there’s just no ceiling here. However, he’s a reasonably safe SP2 choice if you are simply trying to avoid land mines today.

Irvin is the nonsensical punt choice at $6,200 on DK. His first few starts have been horrible, but facing the Royals is a plus. If you want to punt, go for it. I’m probably not going this cheap today.

Afternoon Pitching Summary

We don’t have any aces in good matchups today, so the pitching projections are going to be muddled together. I don’t have strong leans on any must plays, but here is how I am ranking the pitchers on a points per dollar basis:

1) Nathan Eovaldi
2) Bobby Miller
3) Kodai Senga
4) Michael Kopech
5) Taj Bradley
6) Joe Ryan
7) Aaron Nola
8) Miles Mikolas

Saturday Afternoon Hitting: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

Top Afternoon Offenses

Padres vs. Kyle Freeland at Coors Field
Rockies vs. Ryan Weathers at Coors Field
Braves vs. MacKenzie Gore
Brewers vs. Paul Blackburn
Orioles vs. Brady Singer

Coors Field will likely be the starting point for a lot of builds again today after we saw a 9-6 game on Friday. We have a twelve run total here today, and attackable pitchers on both sides. The San Diego offense is finally healthy again with Manny Machado back, and he announced his return with a first inning home run last night. Kyle Freeland isn’t necessarily a gas can, but he has allowed a massive 40% hard contact rate to RHBs this year. Machado and Fernando Tatis are two of the top overall bats on the slate. Gary Sanchez has rediscovered his power and will be a chalk catcher option at a manageable $4,000 tag on DK if he starts today. Xander Bogaerts is also a fine play, and you can always target Soto even in L/L matchups. Even as chalk, it’s tough to get away from the Padres here.

How you want to handle the Colorado side is perhaps the tougher debate. Ryan Weathers is not a good major league pitcher. He has an ERA and xFIP north of 5.00 with a 15% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate this season. He has extreme splits both this year and for his career, and the career numbers include a .380 wOBA allowed to RHBs. Randal Grichuk has a .448 wOBA and 1.090 OPS against LHP this year and would be my first Colorado choice today. The rest of the lineup has largely struggled against LHP, though, so I just don’t know how excited I am despite a matchup in Coors against a bad pitcher. You could always just stack this team up and hope for Coors to be Coors, but a lot of people will be doing that, and six of the projected starters from a bad offense are priced at $4,000+ on DK. Meh.

The Braves keep on coming from behind to win games, as they did that for the fourth straight night on Friday. There is no doubt that this lineup brings thump from top to bottom, and it’s noteworthy that they have a 5.5 run implied team total against an improving young pitcher in MacKenzie Gore. I respect Gore enough to where I will absolutely be underweight on the Braves here, but that’s a scary thought with their power and Gore’s 10% walk rate. Albies, Murphy, and Acuna all have .425+ wOBA marks against LHP this season and are the top individual bats along with the power of Austin Riley, and of course the stack has upside. I could see the Braves scoring one run today. I could see them scoring 11 runs today. You have to make the call on how you think Gore will fare against this potent lineup.

Expect Milwaukee to check in with high ownership again today despite an underwhelming performance yesterday. Paul Blackburn has made just two starts since returning from a long injury absence, and he gave up five runs in five innings against the Marlins his last time out. If he doesn’t pitch deep into the game, we have the porous Oakland bullpen behind him. The problem is that no Milwaukee hitters have wOBA marks above .385 against RHP this year. Perhaps the return of Willy Adames will spark the lineup. I’d start with him along with the power of Yelich and/or Tellez, but this is mainly a spot where I would want to stack as opposed to picking out individual bats — and the fade isn’t the worst idea if ownership gets high or you think Blackburn can rediscover his All Star form.

If you’re looking for an upside offense that might go under-owned today, it’s the Orioles for me. Brady Singer simply hasn’t taken the step forward that many expected this year. A high BABIP has been partly to blame, and he’s not as bad as the 6.45 ERA would suggest… but he’s still no ace. His hard contact rate is one of the worst in the league, and that’s going to lead to a high BABIP. Lefties have posted a .388 wOBA against Singer this year, so I would start with Rutschman, Santander, Henderson, and even Frazier here. They make for a good LH stack. Austin Hays has a .352 wOBA against RHP and would be my preferred option from the left side.

Secondary Bats and Stacks

Diamondbacks vs. Matthew Boyd
Mets vs. Johan Oviedo
Twins vs. Bowden Francis (+bullpen?)
A’s vs. Julio Teheran
Tigers vs. Ryne Nelson
Nationals vs. Jared Shuster

We also have some really intriguing secondary offenses that might get overlooked today. That starts with the Diamondbacks. If they aren’t for real, they are sure fooling us all. This team looks every bit of legitimate. Corbin Carroll smacked two home runs last night, and this club is rolling. They face a power-prone LHP in Matthew Boyd today, and I love the RH power bats here. Ketel Marte and Christian Walker are elite options, and the latter has a whopping .375 ISO against LHP this year. I still like Carroll even in a L/L matchup with his all-around upside. Moreno and Longoria can hit lefties and are solid values if they start, as well.

As I mentioned earlier, it’s anybody’s guess as to when the Mets will show up again. With Pete Alonso out for 3-4 weeks, the offense will have a more difficult time stringing together upside performances — and the team simply looks lost. They did score some runs against the Braves despite losing all those games, though, and Johan Oviedo is a pitcher who has struggled of late and has always had command problems. The Mets make for a really interesting sneaky stack today, and I prefer that approach as opposed to trying to pick out individual bats. Francisco Alvarez has a .428 wOBA against RHP and should get a lineup bump soon; he’s a strong catcher option if he starts. Otherwise, the entire Mets team has largely struggled against RHP this year, though I do like Nimmo as a very strong point per dollar play at $4,100 on DK.

The Blue Jays seem to be cobbling together a bullpen game of sorts today with Alek Manoah being demoted. Some combination of Bowden Francis and/or Mitch White appear poised to eat up a good chunk of innings. Neither can be trusted, and you can certainly play some Twins bats here. Without Buxton and Gallo, however, this offense generally lacks upside. Alex Kirilloff leads the team with a .402 wOBA against RHP this season, while I am still banking on Carlos Correa to break out at some point. That said, the Twins are pretty far down the wish list on a deep offensive slate.

UPDATE – Trevor Richards is starting for Toronto. This really doesn’t change much for the Twins today; they are still a middling offense choice as a whole.

The last three offenses fit the bill of “bad offenses against bad pitching” – and you just never know what to expect in these spots. My favorite of the three is definitely going to be the A’s. Yep, the A’s. And it starts with… Ryan Noda? Yep, Ryan Noda. I know the A’s are awful, but they have actually won three in a row for the first time all year. Things are looking up! In all seriousness, I don’t mind some cheap Oakland bats today in a matchup against Julio Teheran. While Teheran has strong surface numbers, it is a complete mirage. His strikeout rate sits at 15%, and he has a 4.85 xFIP. That .235 BABIP won’t last forever. Noda has the best numbers on the A’s against RHP with a .390 wOBA on the year, and he’s an elite value in this matchup. Every Oakland starter is priced at $3,400 or less on DK, so you can stack them alongside a top pitcher + Fernando Tatis + Manny Machado or something like that. I really like the way that build shakes out today. You have speed with Ruiz at the top and some other potential power with the likes of Brown and Laureano. Let’s go A’s! The Tigers and Nationals are basically low-end stack only options for me on this slate. I prefer Oakland.

Afternoon Offense Summary

Stack Rankings

1) SDP
2) MIL
3) ATL (but I will be underweight)
4) BAL
5) NYM
6) OAK
7) COL
8) ARI

Top Spend Up Bats – Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Adley Rutschman, Francisco Lindor, Corbin Carroll, Xander Bogaerts

Top Mid Range / Value Bats – Gary Sanchez, Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames, Gunnar Henderson, Austin Hays, Brandon Nimmo, Ryan Noda, Seth Brown, Ramon Laureano, Randal Grichuk, Christian Walker

FD / Late Game Notes

If you are playing the “main” slate on FD, you will notice that they have added the four evening games to this slate. For those of you who are playing that slate (or playing the later slate on DK), here are some quick notes on those games:

1) In terms of talent, Triston McKenzie is clearly the best pitcher in the night games. He looked very strong in his first start of the year, but he’s facing Houston, and we can probably only expect about 85 pitches. I just don’t see a path where he is worth the premium $10,800 tag on FD. He is not available on the DK night slate, which excludes the HOU/CLE game.

2) There’s not much else to love for pitching at all. I’m settling on Patrick Sandoval as my preferred play. His metrics are average at best, but he benefits from a matchup against a Seattle team that ranks 27th in team wOBA and 4th in K-rate against LHP this year.

3) If you want to bank on improvement from a top prospect in his second MLB start, you could consider Bryan Woo as a punt option, but that’s mainly an SP2 on DK only choice for me.

4) Even though there’s not much for pitching in these night games, we don’t have a lot of high team totals, either. Nobody is projected for more than 4.6 runs. Tanner Houck is a hit or miss pitcher that can be very bad when he’s off his game, so the Yankees would be my favorite stack. However, this lineup just doesn’t have as much upside with Judge on the IL. The Angels are also a top stack if Woo continues to struggle.

5) The Cubs could be a sneaky team to target against John Brebbia and a Giants bullpen game. These spots almost never get any ownership. The problem is that the Cubs have been flat out woeful at the plate of late, and they actually have the lowest team total on the board. Still, I don’t mind a middle of the order stack or a power bat like Wisdom or Swanson as a one-off play.

6) I like the affordable Giants lefties against a low strikeout RHP in Kyle Hendricks. Joc Pederson had three hits last night, LaMonte Wade remains a solid value at the top of the order, and they make for fine options here.

Good luck today!

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