Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks Today for Saturday 5/31

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2025-05-31 14:54:09 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Long-time grinder, Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84), is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.

Welcome to the weekend, everyone! We have the usual split-slate Saturday on tap, but today is heavily weighted toward the afternoon games. In addition, we actually have a Saturday where the slates line up between FD and DK, with 9 early games starting at 4:05 PM ET and 4 late games starting at 7:10 PM ET. That’s a sign that it’s going to be a great day!

Given the difference in slate sizes, I will be focusing today’s article on the healthy 9-game afternoon docket. If you are looking for content on the evening slate, we will have you covered with some tags and analysis in our MLB DFS optimizer.

As for the main afternoon slate, we have a slate that looks to contain some excitement with both pitching and bats. Upon first glance, it’s going to be one of my favorite slates of the year to write up. Let’s dive in and see what the day has to offer!

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Saturday Afternoon Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

TOP TIER PITCHING

Tarik Skubal vs. Royals
Jesus Luzardo vs. Brewers
Robbie Ray vs. Marlins
Kodai Senga vs. Rockies
Sonny Gray vs. Rangers
Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Red Sox

How about this group of aces? This looks pretty fun for a Saturday afternoon. As usual, let’s start with a quick look at the 2025 data:

Skubal – 2.49 ERA, 2.17 xFIP, 35.0% K, 2.7% BB
Luzardo – 2.15 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 28.2% K, 7.0% BB
Ray – 2.56 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, 27.0% K, 10.5% BB
Senga – 1.46 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 22.8% K, 11.8% BB
Gray – 4.06 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 26.0% K, 5.1% BB
Schwellenbach – 3.42 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 21.7% K, 4.3% BB

We have to start the breakdown by discussing Tarik Skubal. Let me be clear from the jump that he is the best pitcher in baseball right now. I am not doubting that one bit.

However…

I am somewhat concerned about Skubal after he pitched the first complete game shutout of his career his last time out. The Tigers might take it somewhat easy on his pitch count today. He’s obviously a great pitcher, but the Tigers also need to start thinking about the later stages of the season. They are steamrolling toward the playoffs already, and it makes no sense to burn Skubal out in May and June. Let’s say Skubal gets through 6 innings today with around 90 pitches. Are they sending him back out for the 7th after he threw 9 innings last weekend? I don’t think so. He would have to be hyper efficient to get through 7+, and my money is on a 6-inning outing today, tops. Is that going to be enough for him to pay off a now massive DFS salary tag? I don’t think so. I love watching him pitch, but he doesn’t feel like the optimal choice in a matchup against the Royals given this context. It’s a bit of a tougher choice on FD where the salary difference from the other aces isn’t as extreme, but the point stands that I don’t feel like he is necessary today, especially if you want to spend up for bats.

You could very well disagree with me on this take. There is subjectivity in it. If you think the Tigers let him roll for 100+ pitches again, then by all means make him your SP1.

The path of least resistance is to play the matchups with either Kodai Senga (vs. COL) or Robbie Ray (vs. MIA). Both pitchers have double-digit walk rates on the season, but I am not sure that matters against these nonsense opponents. Both opposing offenses rank in the bottom third of the league in walk rate. The better matchup belongs to Senga given how much the Rockies strike out, and it’s impossible to convey just how poor this offense is in one paragraph. Senga’s metrics don’t come close to the other pitchers available, but this matchup is definitely the great equalizer. As such, I am calling Senga my default “SP1” on this slate, though I feel like he will also be the most popular. I will not necessarily be overweight on him if that is the case, but I feel like he has the highest floor outside of Skubal.

Jesus Luzardo and Sonny Gray are also viable options who could get lost in the shuffle given all the top arms we have. Luzardo has faded a bit in recent weeks, while Gray has been a bit of a bad luck victim at times. Both have 26%+ strikeout rates on the season to go along with average matchups. They are not priority plays but will absolutely be in my multi-entry GPP pool.

I have potentially saved the best for last with my favorite GPP pitcher of the bunch. It’s pretty easy to skip over Spencer Schwellenbach in a perceived tougher matchup against the Red Sox. However, that’s part of the reason why I like him so much. This Boston offense is much less dangerous without Alex Bregman in the mix, and Schwellenbach is better than many people think. He logged 20 swinging strikes in his last start against the Padres, which is an astronomical number in 7 innings. His 13.2% swinging strike rate suggests he should be logging more strikeouts than he has been, the walk rate is low, and the advanced metrics are very strong. I really like him to turn in a strong start.

SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS

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