Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Saturday, September 7th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! We have another split slate MLB Saturday on the docket today, with the primary offerings being an early slate of five games starting around 4 PM Eastern and eight games for the main slate in the evening. With college football in full swing, the U.S. Open tennis tournament concluding, and the opening NFL Sunday coming tomorrow, it certainly is a busy sports weekend!
This looks to be another quiet weather day, so we shouldn’t have to worry about the forecast very much. I will write the article assuming every game is a full go. Let’s dig in and see what this Saturday has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
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Saturday Afternoon Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
TWO CLEAR TOP ARMS
Aaron Nola vs. Marlins
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Diamondbacks
The more I start to look at it, the more I like this little early slate. It starts with one pitcher who has been a top tier arm for a long while and one who has ascended to that status in recent months. Let’s begin with a peek at the 2024 data:
Nola – 3.29 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 23% K, 6% BB
Kikuchi – 4.24 ERA, 3.25 xFIP, 28% K, 6% BB
Aaron Nola is a really, really good major league pitcher. He has been a consistent, healthy innings eater for the Phillies for years now. However, he does fit the profile as a pitcher who is better for real life purposes than for fantasy purposes. After all, his strikeouts are basically right around league average. He does make up for that by going deep into games, and it is hard to find fault with Nola in a matchup against the Marlins. They have the lowest team walk rate and rank just 26th in team wOBA against RHP this year, and it’s almost impossible to see Nola getting blown up. I cannot argue with the combination of safety and ceiling in this matchup despite his generally lower strikeout rate.
If you want more of a risk/reward option, give Yusei Kikuchi a look. His full season numbers don’t do him justice either. Kikuchi has kicked into another gear since getting traded to the Astros in July. He posted a 2.57 ERA in 6 August starts with 47 strikeouts in 35 innings. I definitely think he has a higher ceiling than Nola if they both bring their A+ stuff, but Kikuchi has a much lower floor. That is especially true given Kikuchi’s matchup against a red hot Diamondbacks team that is getting healthy and has plenty of danger up and down their lineup.
All told, I will have plenty of exposure to both of these guys. Nola is almost a lock for cash game builds. Kikuchi is a very strong GPP option. Pairing them together on DK makes a lot of sense if you can manage the salary by playing both of them.
CHEAPER STUFF
Zach Eflin vs. Rays
Ryan Pepiot vs. Orioles
Jose Quintana vs. Reds
As we start to look at the secondary options, let’s once again start with a look at the 2024 data:
Eflin – 3.60 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 21% K, 3% BB
Pepiot – 3.76 ERA, 4.13 xFIP, 26% K, 9% BB
Quintana – 4.27 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 18% K, 9% BB
Zach Eflin gets a revenge (!) game against his former team today, and it certainly helps that his former team is the current offensively challenged version of the Rays. Eflin has also been in great form lately, and he didn’t miss a beat in his last outing despite a brief stay on the injured list prior to that start. He has a 24/2 K/BB ratio over his last three starts, and one of them was a 7 inning shutout in his first chance at revenge against these Rays. While he isn’t the highest strikeout pitcher, he also doesn’t walk anyone, and I love aggressive strike throwers against the current version of the Rays lineup. Eflin is my #3 target on this slate after Nola and Kikuchi.
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