Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Sunday, August 25th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, everyone! We have what looks to be a fun Sunday slate on tap, with nine games available on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the main slate. Once again, we have absolutely no weather concerns to worry about, with Roth’s only major note for today being great hitting weather in Kansas City for the PHI/KC contest.
Let’s dig in to see what this Sunday has in store for MLB DFS picks!
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Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
TOP TIER PITCHING
There is no top tier of pitching today. I’m not even going to try to sugar coat it. This is a BAD slate for arms, and I wish we had some of the pitchers who are throwing in the later games on the main slate.
Alas, we do not.
This section gets a big ol’ N/A for today, and we have one cobbled mess that I will simply discuss as 100% secondary options.
A LARGE GROUP OF SECONDARY OPTIONS
Kevin Gausman vs. Angels
Seth Lugo vs. Phillies
Tanner Houck vs. Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly vs. Red Sox
Cody Bradford vs. Guardians
Tyler Anderson vs. Blue Jays
Erick Fedde vs. Twins
Marcus Stroman vs. Rockies
Javier Assad vs. Marlins
Matt Boyd vs. Rangers
As usual, let’s take a look at the 2024 data to see if anything sounds more exciting after I do that:
Gausman – 4.24 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 21% K, 7% BB
Lugo – 3.02 ERA, 3.94 xFIP, 21% K, 6% BB
Houck – 3.01 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 21% K, 6% BB
Kelly – 3.63 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, 20% K, 7% BB (35 innings)
Bradford – 3.56 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 24% K, 4% BB (43 innings)
Anderson – 3.40 ERA, 4.79 xFIP, 19% K, 9% BB
Fedde – 3.39 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 21% K, 7% BB
Stroman – 3.82 ERA, 4.77 xFIP, 17% K, 10% BB
Assad – 3.11 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, 20% K, 10% BB
Boyd – Third start of season
The most expensive pitcher on FanDuel today is Tanner Houck at just $9,300.
The most expensive pitcher on DraftKings today is Kevin Gausman at just $9,300.
If we remove Cody Bradford, who has thrown fewer than 50 innings on the season, the highest pitching strikeout rate we have on this entire slate is 21%. That is below league average. Most of the expensive pitchers have tough matchups.
I really don’t even know what to say about this. That’s just me being honest. I don’t see any pitcher posting a slate-breaking score this afternoon. You simply want to avoid the land mines. Given the limited strikeout upside of these pitchers, I think most people are simply going to play it safe with the pitchers who are in the best matchups. Those would be the aforementioned Gausman (vs. LAA), Marcus Stroman (vs. COL), and Javier Assad (vs. MIA). I would expect those three pitchers to be the highest owned. It’s not like their ceiling projection is that much higher than the others; it’s simply that their median projection is better, and safety is just fine on this slate.
In GPP builds, I would at least like to chase some semblance of upside, and Assad would be my favorite choice in that realm. The Cubs have been playing much better baseball of late and are now up to .500 as a team for the year, and Assad has always had an intriguing arm. The main issue with him is command, and the walks are always capable of being an issue. However, he draws a matchup today against a weak Marlins lineup that has the lowest team walk rate in baseball this season. Assad is coming off a dominant start his last time out, and he is a really strong choice on a thin pitching slate.
I will be avoiding the expensive pitchers who have tough matchups, as I see no reason to chase Seth Lugo against the Phillies or Tanner Houck against the red hot Diamondbacks unless you are building a ton of GPP entries. I suppose you could consider Erick Fedde or Tyler Anderson in average matchups, and they are likely to be more contrarian, but can they really post a slate-breaking type of performance? I don’t think so. Maybe you just punt all the way down to Matt Boyd, who has shown upside in the past and could get closer to 100 pitches today in his third start back from injury. There are certainly crazier ideas, especially if you are looking to spend up on a ton of bats.
As Blender would say, this is truly a day where you can play whoever you want.
SUNDAY PITCHING SUMMARY
It. Is. Ugly.
Here is how I am ranking my interest in this mess of pitching options:
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