Covering the Bases: Sunday, July 9
STLCardinals84, one of the best tournament players in the game, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! This is the final slate that we have before a four day break for the All Star Game, and the daily MLB grind will pause for just a bit. It’s always somewhat welcome to see a breather with the large MLB calendar, but the next few days will be pretty quiet on the sports calendar.
As for this final Sunday slate before the break, this could be perhaps the most difficult slate I have broken down all season. That doesn’t mean that it’s a bad slate — there just aren’t a whole lot of clear dividing lines. You can make a case for a lot of pitchers, but there aren’t a lot of aces. There are just a lot of above average arms. You can make a case for a lot of offenses, but there aren’t a lot of elite spots. There are just a lot of above average spots.
I don’t expect ownership to be a massive issue today… so even in GPP builds, I am largely taking the angle that you can play who you like best without worrying much about ownership.
Let’s see what this fun Sunday slate has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
Top Tier Pitching
Aaron Nola vs. Marlins
Jesus Luzardo vs. Phillies
Zach Eflin vs. Braves
Joe Ryan vs. Orioles
Shane Bieber vs. Royals
As I stated in the introduction, we have a lot of “above average” pitchers going today but no shut down aces. That’s no surprise after all the aces that we saw on yesterday’s slate. Still, everyone has to pick from the same player pool, so let’s see if we can find a gem in here.
Nola – 4.30 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 25% K, 7% BB
Luzardo – 3.32 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 29% K, 6% BB
Eflin – 3.24 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 26% K, 4% BB
Ryan – 3.42 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 28% K, 4% BB
Bieber – 3.66 ERA, 4.09 xFIP, 19% K, 7% BB
If you covered up the stats and just looked at the names, most people would expect Aaron Nola to be the clear SP1 on the slate. He has the historical track record to back that up, but he hasn’t been nearly as sharp in 2023. The strikeouts are down and the walks are up, and while he has been a victim of bad luck to some extent, he also isn’t generally as good away from home. I’m fine with him as a safe option, but you don’t need to prioritize him. In fact, I prefer Jesus Luzardo on the other side of this game. Luzardo simply doesn’t get enough credit for how consistently good he has been in 2023. He walked a whole two batters in his last start, and that was the first time he had walked more than one batter in an outing since… May 9th. That is incredible stuff. He has a 72/8 K/BB ratio over his last 11 starts and hasn’t allowed a single run in any of the last three. The Phillies have been average at best against LHP this year, and on a slate without a clear ace, Luzardo is my preferred play.
Eflin and Ryan are next on the list.
