Covering the Bases: Sunday, May 21
STLCardinals84, one of the best tournament players in the game, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have a busy day on the sports calendar today, with the NBA and NHL playoffs both in action along with the final day of the PGA Championship. It should be a great day to sit back and watch the action. Our focus here, however, is on what promises to be an exciting MLB DFS slate. We have a healthy 11 game main slate on tap (10 on FD as they are excluding Game 1 of the NYM/CLE DH), so there’s no time to waste. Grab your morning coffee, and let’s get to some of my favorite MLB DFS picks for the day!
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
The Top Options
Framber Valdez vs. A’s
Clayton Kershaw vs. Cardinals
Kevin Gausman vs. Orioles
Freddy Peralta vs. Rays
George Kirby vs. Braves
Max Scherzer vs. Guardians (DK only)
Merrill Kelly vs. Pirates
Justin Steele vs. Phillies
This is a surprisingly deep group of aces today, but some of these pitchers are better “real life” pitchers than fantasy baseball aces. In any case, let’s see what we can parse out of the 2023 data for this large group of eight:
Valdez – 2.84 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 28% K, 5% BB
Kershaw – 2.52 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, 30% K, 5% BB
Gausman – 3.27 ERA, 2.35 xFIP, 35% K, 4% BB
Peralta – 4.11 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 25% K, 10% BB
Kirby – 2.45 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 20% K, 2% BB
Scherzer – 4.88 ERA, 5.30 xFIP, 22% K, 10% BB
Kelly – 2.92 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 27% K, 10% BB
Steele – 2.44 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 22% K, 7% BB
Given how deep this pool is, we can afford to be picky today.
I am not convinced that Max Scherzer is healthy, and we have only seen him throw 27 2/3 innings so far this year. His strikeout upside is limited against a Cleveland team that has the second lowest strikeout rate in the league. I’m largely out on him as anything other than a GPP flier at this stage. He gets the “X” on this slate.
Kirby is your prototype example of “better in real life than in fantasy” with his 20% strikeout rate and 2% walk rate. He also has to face the Braves today. Bye.
The same goes for Steele against the Phillies. There’s just not enough strikeout upside, and his advanced metrics suggest eventual regression. See ya.
Peralta is on the fringe of viability. The walks are a problem, and the overall metrics aren’t exceptional. He also draws a tough matchup against the Rays. That said, he has plenty of swinging strike ability and can get the double digit strikeout game. I’ll keep him in my GPP pool if I am building 50+ lineups, but he’s nowhere near a core option.
That leaves us with Valdez, Kershaw, and Gausman as the top three. I don’t think you are going wrong with any of them, but I’ll opt for Valdez as the top pick. Houston is sitting as a whopping -400 favorite on the betting boards this afternoon, which is the largest I have seen this season. Oakland continues to offer little resistance as the worst team in baseball, and Valdez owns a 2.57 xFIP, a 28% strikeout rate, and a 5% walk rate this season to go along with his always high ground ball rate. The floor is massive for him today, and the ceiling is pretty strong as well.
I’ll probably opt for Gausman next given his fantastic body of work so far this year, and I think he brings a little more upside to the table than Kershaw given that Kershaw is facing a Cardinals team that is 10-3 over the past two weeks. However, Kershaw is definitely in the mix.
I am ranking this tier as Valdez > Gausman > Kershaw >>> everyone else, and I feel pretty good about that setup today.
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