Million Dollar Musings: Friday, September 1
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Friday and Happy September! As we enter the final month of the regular season, be aware that baseball gets even wonkier than usual late in the season. Rosters expand from 26 to 28 players today. That may not sound like a big deal, and for the most part it won’t change much, but just that one extra pitcher in the bullpen or one extra bat on the bench does increase some pinch-hit risk through the final month.
We should have a couple more weeks before pure shenanigans ensue, but at some point, we’ll start seeing eliminated teams with some wonky lineups. But for now, things remain the same as they’ve been as we begin our search for MLB DFS picks on this jam-packed 14-game slate.
Friday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
Pitching is loaded tonight with 11 pitchers priced above $8,500 on DK and 15 above $9,000 on FD. I’m going to separate things into a few different buckets using that DK pricing as a guide. I start with 8 pitchers in the top tier that I’m considering, followed by a bucket of aces that I’ll skip and then a couple different tiers of salary savers.
ACES OR SOMETHING LIKE ACES
Tyler Glasnow at Guardians – 32.6% K, 7.7% BB, 3.12 ERA, 3.17 SIERA
Max Scherzer vs. Twins – 28.6% K, 7.1% BB, 3.71 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
Zack Wheeler at Brewers – 27% K, 4.6% BB, 3.59 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Freddy Peralta vs. Phillies – 30.6% K, 9.2% BB, 3.95 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
Justin Verlander vs. Yankees – 21.4% K, 7.4% BB, 3.06 ERA, 4.48 SIERA
Kodai Senga vs. Mariners – 28.5% K, 11.1% BB, 3.17 ERA, 4.04 SIERA
Eduardo Rodriguez at White Sox – 24.3% K, 6.5% BB, 3.21 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
Logan Gilbert at Mets – 24.7% K, 4.5% BB, 3.66 ERA, 3.75 SIERA
Eury Perez at Nationals – 30.4% K, 7.4% BB, 2.68 ERA, 3.57 SIERA
On both sites, the top four salaries belong to Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler, and Freddy Peralta. Glasnow and Scherzer have a little separation, but you need to really like any of these guys to spend these salaries.
I can make a strong case for all four of them, though I can also find enough below them to make a case for saving. I’ll start by saying that if I’m spending all the way up, it’s Max Scherzer over Tyler Glasnow. Of course, you can always play Glasnow, but Scherzer has the far better strikeout matchup, the higher pitch count, and has looked like his elite past self recently. Outside of one dud a couple weeks ago, Scherzer has at least 6+ strikeouts in 12 straight starts, including double-digit strikeouts and 7 innings in two of his last three. The combination of the innings, strikeouts, and matchup make him my SP1 where salary allows.
Tyler Glasnow, with his 80-90 pitches in a lower-strikeout matchup, is just an MME flier for me at his salary.
The Zack Wheeler vs. Freddy Peralta matchup is intriguing for both DFS and real-life baseball. Wheeler is the steadier, safer option, with nine straight starts of 6-7 innings and more than 4 runs allowed just twice in 26 starts. The upside comes and goes, but it absolutely exists, as we saw in his 10-strikeout outing last weekend. Assuming Milwaukee uses five lefties against him, I am not expecting to see those strikeout numbers, but I always expect a quality start at a completely fair salary. I strongly prefer Scherzer, which leaves Wheeler a bit on the outside looking in, but he is in my primary pool anywhere I can get double-aces.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
