Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Monday 4/7

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-04-07 16:16:08 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Monday! I hope you survived the weekend better than my Auburn Tigers and all the chalk pitchers! We open this week with a pitcher-heavy 7-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET. There is a lot of ugly weather tonight, but only one of the games with a lot of concern is on our main slate. That would be the Rangers-Cubs game, which starts the day as Orange/Yellow on our MLB weather page. For now, I’ll include that game in the analysis, but we will need to keep an eye on that one as the day progresses.

Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

We have a loaded pitching slate with multiple aces who have opened the season in top form. With these 8 aces up top, I am not going to be messing around with any nonsense below this group.

ACES, ACES, AND MORE ACES

Logan Gilbert vs. Astros – 27.4% K, 4.6% BB, 3.23 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
Michael King at A’s – 27.7% K, 8.7% BB, 2.95 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
Kodai Senga vs. Marlins – 2 starts since 2023
Hunter Greene at Giants – 27.7% K, 9.3% BB, 2.75 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
Zac Gallen vs. Orioles – 25.1% K, 8.7% BB, 3.65 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
Justin Steele vs. Rangers – 24.3% K, 6.7% BB, 3.07 ERA, 3.74 SIERA
Nathan Eovaldi at Cubs – 23.9% K, 6% BB, 3.80 ERA, 3.64 SIERA
Logan Webb vs. Reds – 20.5% K, 5.9% BB, 3.47 ERA, 3.61 SIERA

It might be tempting to try and pay down at pitcher after back-to-back days of the spend-up chalky ace failing, but this is a different kind of slate. We don’t have one super clear, obvious ace that is going to pick up all the ownership, and we have so many good pitchers that there is virtually no way they all fail. If we have chalk, it’s probably Logan Gilbert, along with Kodai Senga, but all 8 of these aces should pick up some ownership.

The first thing to discuss is that Justin Steele and Nathan Eovaldi are facing each other in that ugly weather game at Wrigley Field. If they play, the weather is a huge boost to two already good pitchers. I would also say that neither Steele nor Eovaldi would stand out among this group if they didn’t get the weather boost. Plus, it’s cold enough that we have to consider the possibility that it could hurt the pitching as well as the hitting. But then we also have to consider the massive discount that Justin Steele has as the cheapest of these aces on both sites. The good news is that only Kodai Senga starts before these two, so if you have Steele or Eovaldi in a lineup, you have plenty of time to switch out to another ace if they decide to PPD after lock. In that instance, you just need to make sure you have another lineup spot or two you can swap in order to spend up from Steele.
OK, now let’s forget the weather and just talk about how good this whole group is.

Through two starts this season, Logan Gilbert, Zac Gallen, Hunter Greene, and Nathan Eovaldi are all over 33% strikeouts. Sure, it’s only two starts each, but that is crazy good stuff. Logan Webb looks like his usual self with the control and ground balls, while Justin Steele has only suffered from bad HR/FB%, which shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Kodai Senga has made just one start, but it was also a gem with 8 strikeouts in 5 innings. Michael King had a rough first start but stormed back with 11 Ks last week. So basically, all 8 of these pitchers look fantastic and have clear upside.

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