Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Monday 8/31

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood)

Created Aug 31, 2026

Last Updated 2026-08-31 20:19:34 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks today. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to muse about the August 31, 2026 MLB DFS slate.

Happy Monday! We’ve got a sizeable difference between the sites tonight, with an 11-game FD slate vs. just a 7-game DK slate. We also have a full hour between start times, with FD starting early at 6:40 PM ET, while DK won’t start until 7:40 PM ET. The headline for the next couple days will be the Orioles in Coors Field, but this slate has no shortage of offense beyond the Coors Field game. Let’s dig in and see what we find.

Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on DraftKings and FanDuel

This is not a great-looking pitching slate, particularly on DK, where all the top pitchers have been very up and down. The overall skill sets still look good, but I have very little level of confidence in a single pitcher anywhere on this slate.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Kyle Harrison at Cubs – 30% K, 6.4% BB, 2.79 ERA, 3.07 SIERA
• Jacob deGrom vs. A’s – 29.4% K, 6.9% BB, 4.21 ERA, 3.20 SIERA
• Taj Bradley vs. Tigers – 27% K, 10% BB, 3.97 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
• Peter Lambert vs. White Sox – 23.1% K, 9.4% BB, 3.66 ERA, 4.21 SIERA
• Payton Tolle vs. Mariners (FD) – 27.9% K, 6.9% BB, 3.09 ERA, 3.41 SIERA
• Ian Seymour vs. Mets (FD) – 28.7% K, 7.2% BB, 4.21 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
• Michael King at Reds (FD) – 21.2% K, 9.4% BB, 3.23 ERA, 4.35 SIERA
• George Kirby at Red Sox (FD) – 20.4% K, 5.5% BB, 4.02 ERA, 3.96 SIERA

We have two pitchers with basically elite overall skill sets, but it’s not all sunshine and roses when you look at the recent game logs for Kyle Harrison and Jacob deGrom.

All season with Kyle Harrison, he’s been zigzagging between great starts with a high strikeout ceiling and then short outings where the strikeouts disappear. His best starts have been in good matchups, but he’s had plenty of good starts against good opponents and bad starts against bad opponents, so I’m not sure how much matchup matters. But then we also have this situation where he hasn’t gone more than 5 innings in any of his last 7 starts, and until we see something change, I think we need to assume he’s getting pulled after 5 innings regardless of pitch count. In theory, there’s more potential here if they decide tonight is the night to let him go, but I just can’t count on it. Adding in good hitting weather at Wrigley Field, Harrison is not going to make my primary pool.

Jacob deGrom has been even more dramatically up and down than Harrison, with 4 starts of 5+ runs since the All-Star Break. While that’s terrible, he also has 5 starts of 8+ strikeouts since the All-Star Break, and it also barely seems like matchup matters here either. I don’t see any worrisome red flags with his stuff or velocity, and I think this is just a case of a guy who is going to be up and down depending on BABIP and HR/FB variance. It is a little more disturbing that he has 5 walks in 2 of his last 5 starts, but he still generally has excellent control overall to go along with a strikeout ceiling. With his recent performance, there is absolutely downside risk here, but the skills still say this guy is an ace, and personally, that’s how I’m playing it. The lack of power for the A’s away from their home ballpark is ideal and more than makes up for their lower strikeouts. Even with the recent struggles, deGrom is my SP1 on both sites.

Taj Bradley has shown just as much upside as Harrison and deGrom; he just has sketchier control overall and is more likely to walk multiple batters every time he takes the mound. However, he does have a higher pitch-count ceiling than deGrom and a higher innings ceiling than Harrison, and that helps makes up for the higher walk rate. His main issue has been lefty power, and that is not a huge problem against Detroit. It’s basically an average matchup, and I have Bradley as the SP2 on DK and a reasonable pivot off deGrom on FD.

I can also make a case for Payton Tolle as the SP1 on FD. He’s the most-expensive pitcher ($10,200), but with his overall numbers as well as his more consistent recent performance, that looks quite warranted. Over his last 9 starts, he’s up at a 33.5% K rate with just 6% walks, and he has 7+ strikeouts in 6 of those starts. The Mariners have much higher strikeouts against LHP, and I would say this matchup looks a little better than what deGrom and Bradley have. I’m going to say I prefer Tolle ahead of deGrom as the SP1 on FD if that $700 is not important with the bats.

The other pitcher I could sort of make a case for on FD is Ian Seymour. His 28.7% K rate is the 3rd highest on this slate, behind only Harrison and deGrom, and he adds in good control on top of it. His pitch count has been good for a Tampa pitcher, going between 88-98 pitches in each of his last 5 starts. The Mets are better with Juan Soto back, but this is still a lineup with 4 batters in the projected lineup above a 25% K rate against LHP this season and low power in the bottom half of the lineup. Seymour has the 2nd-highest price on FD ($9,900), which should keep him way under the radar in terms of ownership. I like him about as much as Bradley and will keep him my pool. Officially, I’m calling him the SP4, but I do think I’ll split up the top four fairly evenly.

Those are the only pitchers over $8,000 on DK and over $9,000 on FD who are making it into my pool.

George Kirby, Michael King, and Peter Lambert have all had some good starts, but their overall skill sets are a clear step below these other top-tier pitchers, and I don’t like their matchups nearly enough to make up for it.

CHEAPER PITCHING

• Gage Jump at Rangers – 25.2% K, 10.9% BB, 4.69 ERA, 4.11 SIERA
• Aaron Nola at Diamondbacks – 24.8% K, 8% BB, 5.03 ERA, 3.79 SIERA
• Jackson Jobe at Twins – 18.8% K, 10 % BB, 3.93 ERA, 4.39 SIERA
• Elmer Rodriguez at Angels – 15.2% K, 12.4% BB, 4.70 ERA, 5.39 SIERA

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