Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Monday, August 5th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday! We open the week with a manageable 8-game slate that looks to have a very good mix of pitching and hitting. Be sure to note that this slate is starting a few minutes earlier than normal, at 6:40 p.m. ET.
At first glance, I can make a case for just about any type of lineup build, and while we might run into a little bit of chalk here and there, there are plenty of paths to off-the-board lineups that don’t lose you any upside. Let’s jump right in and start with a group of top-tier pitchers in difficult matchups.
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Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
The top-tier pitchers are mostly stuck with some pretty tough matchups, making things a little less clear than usual.
TOP TIER PITCHING
Tyler Glasnow vs. Phillies – 32.8% K, 7.2% BB, 3.50 ERA, 2.89 SIERA
Hunter Brown at Rangers – 25.3% K, 8.8% BB, 4.11 ERA, 3.79 SIERA
Aaron Nola at Dodgers – 23.7% K, 6.2% BB, 3.43 ERA, 3.71 SIERA
Zac Gallen at Guardians – 23.5% K, 7.9% BB, 3.56 ERA, 3.89 SIERA
Logan Webb at Nationals – 20.3% K, 6% BB, 3.49 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
Hmmmm…what a strange little slate we have here. There is one clear standout skill set, but it comes with a high price tag and a tough matchup. Beyond that, we have a bunch of good pitchers, but not exactly superstars, and also mostly in tougher matchups.
Tyler Glasnow turned things back around and looked like his usual self in his last start, so in my mind, he’s far and away the SP1 if not accounting for salary. The matchup certainly adds some risk, but he is enough better than everyone else to still come in at the top of the list. With strikeouts over 32% to both sides of the plate, if I have the salary, I’ll just play Glasnow and move on. However, it is enough of a matchup downgrade that this is not a must-play, so let’s wait and see what we find next before deciding how hard we need to stretch to afford him.
Pitchers like Hunter Brown, Aaron Nola, and Zac Gallen are always likely to be good with their steady skill sets, but not a single one of these guys cracks the top 20 in the league in strikeout rate this season. With that, to get some sort of can’t-miss DFS upside, we typically need a good matchup to add some upside to the ledger.
I do love the way…
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