Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Monday 7/28

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-07-28 17:42:06 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Monday! We have a big slate for a Monday night, with 12 games starting at the usual 7:05 PM ET. This appears to be a very pitching-heavy slate with 10+ pitchers who could make the case to be called aces. This leaves a bunch of offenses as just MME leftovers, but we still end up with a sizeable top tier of upside bats.

The MLB weather looks like it should cooperate, but it is hot most everywhere. It’s certainly hot here, with a heat index projected to be 108 degrees this afternoon. I guess that means I’ll be inside if you need me. We’ll just pretend like I wouldn’t be inside anyway!

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Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

There is a ton of great pitching, and I’m not going to be considering much in the way of cheap nonsense. I will use DK pricing to split up the tiers, beginning with 9 pitchers priced between $8,700-$10,700.

A GAGGLE OF ACES

• Framber Valdez vs. Nationals – 24.9% K, 8.1% BB, 2.67 ERA, 3.31 SIERA
• Cristopher Sanchez at White Sox – 26.7% K, 6.4% BB, 2.40 ERA, 2.95 SIERA
• Jacob deGrom at Angels – 26.9% K, 5.5% BB, 2.28 ERA, 3.25 SIERA
• Jacob Misiorowski vs. Cubs – 35.7% K, 10.7% BB, 2.45 ERA, 2.97 SIERA
• Spencer Strider at Royals – 29.6% K, 10% BB, 3.72 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto at Reds – 28.4% K, 8.5% BB, 2.55 ERA, 3.29 SIERA
• Dylan Cease vs. Mets – 29.6% K, 8.6% BB, 4.59 ERA, 3.35 SIERA
• Luis Castillo at A’s – 21.3% K, 7.2% BB, 3.30 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
• Matthew Boyd at Brewers – 23.2% K, 5.2% BB, 2.20 ERA, 3.68 SIERA

If you stretch all the way down from Framber Valdez to Matthew Boyd on DK, or from Cristopher Sanchez down to Dylan Cease on FD, sure, salary matters. A little. But essentially, with this big group of aces, I just want to decide who I want to play and then figure out how to get there.

The first thing I’m going to do is cross Jacob Misiorowski off my list. To be clear, I’m not telling you that you can’t play a guy with a 35.7% K rate; of course you can. I just know that I have no idea what they are doing with his pitch count, and I have no idea where his consistency or control are going to land. On slates where we only have a couple aces, I’m fine to chase his upside, but there is enough upside everywhere else tonight.

The next thing I’m doing is to say that if I’m going to the cheaper end of this group on DK, it will be Matthew Boyd ahead of Luis Castillo. Castillo has looked better recently, but his overall skill set is a clear step below the rest of this tier, while Matthew Boyd continues to be one of the most consistent pitchers in the league. I also prefer the matchup for Boyd, both to avoid the ballpark in West Sacramento and to attack the lack of power from the Brewers against lefties.

We also have Dylan Cease down in this lower end of the top tier at $9,200 on DK and $9,300 on FD. There is no consistency here whatsoever, but there is also no doubting the upside. At home, the matchup ends up being something close to neutral, although I still prefer the matchup for Boyd. Cease is in the MME pool, but he’s far enough behind the top few pitchers that I don’t love him.

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