Million Dollar Musings: Monday, July 31
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Monday’s MLB DFS Updates
4:30 PM ET – It sounds like the Angels are swapping their pitcher to Chase Silseth, in place of Griffin Canning. While we have far less sample size on Silseth, I consider this to be at least a moderate downgrade for Braves bats. Silseth is a heavy ground ball pitcher with solid strikeout ability in the minors. It’s only 24 innings this season, so big grain of salt, but he has a 27% K rate with 67% GB to righties. It drops off a lot more to lefties, so compared to Canning, I swap my primary Braves bats to the lefties – Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Eddie Rosario. But in the big scheme of things, the Braves are down alongside the Astros, still a top tier offense, but less of a standout.
While we’re on Angels updates, it’s also worth noting that new arrivals C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk are both in the lineup. I didn’t like Charlie Morton much anyway, but it’s a further downgrade for him.
Happy Monday! We saw quite a few interesting trades in MLB over the weekend that will shake up some lineups, and we’re likely to see a few more today. I am not going to guess at anything until it happens (after which, it’s not so much a ‘guess’ anymore!), but we’ll need to be on our toes and ready to make some changes as needed over the next couple days. We also have teams that have brought in new players who may or not make it into the lineups immediately and may or may not be available on those new teams for DFS.
Hopefully, none of this is a big deal; I just wanted to point out the higher than normal chance of shenanigans as we get to the trade deadline. However, as we are already needing to stay on our toes for trades, we need to stay even more on our toes with dicey weather in the Coors Field game. The Padres traveling to Coors will be the clear top offense on this slate, but we start the day with a straight Orange from Kevin Roth. My initial thought here is that, unless they postpone the game or we get worse news before lock, this is the only chance we would have had to get away with San Diego bats at moderate ownership.
I’ll make plans both with and without Padres bats, so let’s jump into the MLB DFS picks and see what else we are working with today.
Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have a solid pitching slate with multiple choices in every pricing tier. I’ll sort them into three buckets based on salary.
UPSIDE TRIO
Tyler Glasnow at Yankees – 34.8% K, 7.9% BB, 3.36 ERA, 2.95 SIERA
Corbin Burnes at Nationals – 25.4% K, 8.3% BB, 3.46 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
Andrew Abbott at Cubs – 27.8% K, 8% BB, 1.90 ERA, 4.05 SIERA
These three pitchers on the high end of the salary scale are all strikeout-upside options with slate-winning potential. Because of the salaries and the solid pitching at lower price points, none of these guys are in must-play territory for me. But I always want this kind of upside if I can get there.
Tyler Glasnow has made 11 starts this season. Every single one of them has come with at least 6 strikeouts, and five of his last seven have come with 8+ strikeouts. He’s also been extremely efficient, with improved control in seven straight starts with no more than 2 walks. Even with Aaron Judge back, the Yankees are just a middle-of-the-road matchup, with seven batters above a 23% strikeout rate against RHP this season. It’s all very close, but Glasnow is my SP1-A.
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