Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Monday 9/15

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-09-15 16:33:07 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Monday! The new week begins with a smaller 7-game slate that is starting a little later than usual at 7:35 PM ET. I am finding some pretty clear dividing lines on both sides, where I have more love for the top-tier bats than I do for the top-tier pitchers.

The MLB weather continues to be clear, although as Kevin Roth foreshadowed last week on Crunch Time, temperatures have crept back up across the country. While it’s still not great, with summertime weather hitting, things do look better for the bats than they did the past couple weeks when I needed an extra blanket to stay warm at night.

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Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

We have several good pitchers on this slate, but there are no true elite DFS aces. The five pitchers priced above $8,000 on DK and $8,500 on FD will make up my top tier, and then everything else can qualify as a salary saver on this slate where nothing is all that expensive on the pitching side.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Carlos Rodon at Twins – 26% K, 9.8% BB, 3.11 ERA, 3.96 SIERA
• Ranger Suarez at Dodgers – 24% K, 6% BB, 2.77 ERA, 3.68 SIERA
• Kyle Bradish at White Sox – 17 IP this season
• Emmett Sheehan vs. Phillies – 28.6% K, 7.9% BB, 3.32 ERA, 3.48 SIERA
• Zac Gallen vs. Giants – 21.2% K, 8.1% BB, 4.84 ERA, 4.26 SIERA

Carlos Rodon has a 3.11 ERA through 30 starts, regularly gets 100+ pitches, and he has only allowed more than 3 runs once since the All-Star Break. So…. he’s good? It would be silly to say anything else, and yet also since the All-Star Break – 21.4% K rate, 12.2% BB rate, 4.72 SIERA, .235 BABIP, and a 9.3% HR/FB%. Are we completely sure he’s good and not just lucky? I don’t know, guys; I think he’s ‘good,’ but I think he’s definitely not great. The Twins will likely send up 7 righties against him, but outside of Byron Buxton, it’s certainly not a scary group of righties. He’s bound to project at the top of the board, and he’s not all that expensive. My lean here would be to say he’s probably going to continue to be fine and give you the same 15-20 DK points and 30-40 FD points that he has been, but I also don’t love this if he’s going to be heavy chalk, which is my expectation. I’d tell you to go ahead and play him in cash games, but I am going to be underweight here in tournaments.

In my opinion, Ranger Suarez is the best pitcher on this slate. If everyone had the same matchup, salary, and ownership, he’d be my first player in every lineup. He goes through stretches of low strikeouts, but he also has 10+ Ks in 3 of his last 5 starts. He has a much longer track record of limiting hard contact that looks much more believable than Rodon. But as it turns out, everyone doesn’t have the same salary and ownership…so…what about these Dodgers? The first thing I’ll note is that while Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman can hit anyone, Suarez has a 29.2% K rate, 2.7% BB rate, .038 ISO, and .222 wOBA allowed to lefties. He’s awesome. Against righties, he is at a more moderate 22.7% K rate but still allows virtually no power with his incredibly low hard hit rate and lack of barrels against him. As for the Dodgers’ 7 righties, with Will Smith on the IL, I’m just not scared of these guys. The surface numbers against lefties still look very good, but under the hood, we find just one single righty in the entire lineup above a 6% barrel rate against lefties this season. Sure, I’d rather face the Twins, but they are in the same stratosphere. This is exactly the type of situation where I want to play the ownership game. My best guess is Rodon has something like 4-5x the ownership of Suarez, and I kind of want Suarez ahead of him even without that ownership edge.

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