Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Thursday 4/3

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-04-03 14:12:29 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Thursday! If you’re already in need of a day off just a week into the season, today looks like a good time for it, with just 5 games spread out all over the place. In general, I am only going to write an article for a slate of 5+ games, but on a day like this, when there are no 5-game slates, I’ll just tackle whatever the biggest slate is. Amazingly, the sites couldn’t even line up for this one, with DK focusing on a 3-game main slate at 1:05pm ET, while FD maxes out at 2 games with the 7:05 p.m. ET start. I am not going to waste anyone’s time with in-depth analysis of a 2-game slate, but I will add FD Cliff Notes for that slate along with the analysis of the 3-gamer on DK. The main trick of this DK slate is that we may not have lineups for the third game by the time the slate locks, so be sure to circle back to the MLB starting lineups page before moving on with your day.

Thursday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

We have a very clear top two pitchers, who happen to be facing each other in the HOU/MIN game. The salaries are set accordingly, with Joe Ryan and Hunter Brown both at $9,000+, while everyone else is $7,500 and below. Since we have just the three games, I’ll talk about all six of these pitchers, and in MME, I would recommend grabbing a few shares of everyone, even the nonsense!

TWO ACES, TWO DECENT PITCHERS AND TWO JABRONIS WALK INTO A BAR AT 1:05 ON A THURSDAY…

• Joe Ryan vs. Astros – 27.3% K, 4.3% BB, 3.60 ERA, 3.28 SIERA
• Hunter Brown at Twins – 24.1% K, 8.4% BB, 3.49 ERA, 3.74 SIERA
• Charlie Morton vs. Red Sox – 23.8% K, 9.3% BB, 4.19 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
• Tanner Houck at Orioles – 20.7% K, 6.5% BB, 3.12 ERA, 3.73 SIERA
• Taijuan Walker vs. Rockies – 15.2% K, 9.7% BB, 7.10 ERA, 5.25 SIERA
• Antonio Senzatela at Phillies – career 15.1% K, 7.2% BB

Joe Ryan was OK in his opening start, with five strikeouts and no walks in five innings against the Cardinals. His velocity was down from what it was last season, and his swings and misses were down with it, but most likely those will be on their way up as he moves into the season. If we had a slate full of aces, I’d be tempted to say let’s wait and see it first, but he is the most talented pitcher on this slate. Among this top tier of pitchers, I also like Ryan’s matchup the best. His strikeouts were up over 30% against righties last season, and Houston, as we continue to see, is chock-full of mediocre righties. There is always some power risk with Ryan, but I can’t see overthinking this one on a small slate. He’s my SP1 in all formats on all sites, and I’ll gladly be over the field even as heavy chalk.

If you don’t want to start with Ryan, the next logical option is his opponent, Hunter Brown. Brown had his strikeout stuff working in his opening start, with 7 Ks in 6 innings against the Mets. He was also at a higher velocity than last season’s average, so maybe he’s feeling extra good this spring. He walks about twice as many batters as Ryan, which is the main reason for my preference for Ryan, but they both have plenty of upside here. Brown’s ground ball ability will help against the Twins’ power, but there is still risk in this matchup.

If you’re not concerned with salary or ownership, I would just play Ryan and Brown and go take a nap.

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