Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Tuesday, September 24th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday! The final Tuesday night slate of the regular season brings us a pitching-heavy 10-game slate that lacks excitement on the offensive side. We are back at Coors Field, but it’s the Cardinals and Rockies, so not exactly two can’t-miss offenses. I’m going to narrow my pitching pool down as much as I can, but this is one where you can make a case for a lot of arms. With the bats, it’s mostly into dart-throwing range right out of the gate, but let’s dive in and see what we find.
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Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
There are a ton of very good pitchers on this slate, although there is also no one above a 28% K rate for the season. I’ll be leaning pretty heavily into matchups, which will help separate this loaded top tier:
TOP TIER PITCHING
Framber Valdez vs. Mariners – 24.4% K, 7.8% BB, 2.85 ERA, 3.40 SIERA
Logan Gilbert at Astros – 27.2% K, 4.7% BB, 3.24 ERA, 3.23 SIERA
Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Mets – 26.3% K, 4.9% BB, 3.61 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Bailey Ober vs. Marlins – 27.1% K, 6.2% BB, 3.84 ERA, 3.57 SIERA
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Giants – 23.8% K, 5.4% BB, 4.66 ERA, 3.70 SIERA
Nathan Eovaldi at A’s – 24% K, 5.9% BB, 3.96 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
Logan Webb at Diamondbacks – 20.6% K, 6% BB, 3.58 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
Michael King at Dodgers – 28% K, 8.6% BB, 3.04 ERA. 3.60 SIERA
Bowden Francis vs. Red Sox – 22.6% K, 5.4% BB, 3.47 ERA, 3.89 SIERA
Brayan Bello at Blue Jays – 21.7% K, 9% BB, 4.49 ERA, 4.14 SIERA
Clarke Schmidt vs. Orioles – 26% K, 8% BB, 2.37 ERA, 3.75 SIERA
As we saw multiple times last week, we have a loaded top tier where we can fairly easily knock a bunch of good pitchers out of the primary pool based on matchup. As always, it’s completely viable to play any pitchers of this caliber in MME if you’re looking to spread out and be different, but for a starting point, this is what I’m getting rid of:
Logan Webb, Michael King, Brayan Bello – For Webb and King, I just don’t feel any need to pick on the Diamondbacks or Dodgers when we have similarly skilled pitchers in better matchups. The matchup isn’t quite as tough for Bello, but this is still a lower-strikeout pitcher in a lower-strikeout matchup.
Framber Valdez has continued his remarkable second half, getting all the way up to a 30.3% K rate while maintaining his elite 60% ground balls. He has gone 7 innings in 3 of his last 4 games and has 6+ strikeouts in 7 straight starts. There’s plenty of good pitching, but for me, Valdez is the SP1. Because he’s the highest-priced pitcher on both sites, I am not going to force him in every lineup, but that also makes me hopeful that he’s not overly popular.
With salary considered, I would expect Bailey Ober to be the chalk against Miami. Like Valdez, Ober has a good matchup in a must-win game for his team. He surged to a 12-K gem in his last start, and while that’s an outlier, he has plenty of upside from both strikeouts and innings. He is my SP2, and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who has him ranked ahead of Valdez.
Next in line will be…
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