Million Dollar Musings: Tuesday, September 26
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday! There is a one-game difference between FD and DK tonight, but it’s a big one to highlight right from the start. The Dodgers are visiting Coors Field for a doubleheader, and DK is including the second game of that doubleheader in their main slate, while FD is not. This changes things quite a bit on the offensive side, which we’ll get to after we walk through some MLB DFS picks on the pitching side.
Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We’ve got a solid pitching slate, with multiple options in different pricing tiers. I’ll sort into two buckets using DK pricing.
TOP TIER PITCHING
Kevin Gausman vs. Yankees – 31.4% K, 7.2% BB, 3.29 ERA, 3.31 SIERA
Zach Eflin at Red Sox – 26.6% K, 3.5% BB, 3.44 ERA, 3.30 SIERA
George Kirby vs. Astros – 22.5% K, 2.5% BB, 3.58 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
Justin Steele at Braves – 24.5% K, 5% BB, 3.00 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
Bobby Miller at Rockies – 22.8% K, 6.7% BB, 3.97 ERA, 4.08 SIERA
Bailey Ober vs. A’s – 23.9% K, 5.4% BB, 3.66 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Braxton Garrett at Mets – 24% K, 4.2% BB, 3.53 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Seth Lugo at Giants – 23.3% K, 5.8% BB, 3.79 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
Kyle Harrison vs. Padres – 24.4% K, 7.1% BB, 4.85 ERA, 4.25 SIERA
Cristian Javier at Mariners – 23.1% K, 8.8% BB, 4.64 ERA, 4.75 SIERA
As we get into these final few days of the regular season, pitch count and innings become an even more crucial piece of the puzzle than usual. A lot of it is just random guesswork, but in general, my lowest amount of concern is with veteran pitchers on teams who are out of contention. My highest level of concern is with any pitchers, but especially young pitchers, on teams who have clinched playoff spots. This leaves the teams who are still fighting for their October positions in a bit of no-man’s-land. On the one hand, there is not going to be any artificial pitch limit in a must-win game. But at the same time, when a game is treated like a playoff game, teams tend to be quicker with a hook at the first sign of trouble, overthinking every out.
When I look at this big group of pitchers, Bailey Ober and Bobby Miller are the first two to get big question marks. Both of their teams have clinched with no real chance to change their playoff positioning in any meaningful way. With Miller in Coors on top of that, he’s off my board. Ober is a little tougher to cross off the list because of the matchup, but I am viewing 5 innings as the ceiling here.
After those two, we have a whole bunch of guys playing for the playoffs.
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