Million Dollar Musings: Wednesday, May 31
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Split Slate Wednesday! We have the usual busy day Wednesday, with two decent-sized slates. We have an early 7-gamer starting at 1:10pm ET and then a slight difference between sites for the evening slate. DK is running a 6-gamer at the usual 7:07pm ET, while FD adds an extra game and starts a little earlier at 6:40pm ET.
We’ll start with a quick-ish look at the weak-pitching early slate, and then I’ll be back in a bit to dig into some MLB DFS picks for the evening.
Wednesday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
ONE ACE AND SOME OTHER PEOPLE
Mitch Keller at Giants – 30.5% K, 5.7% BB, 3.01 ERA, 3.14 SIERA
Zach Eflin at Cubs – 24.6% K, 3.3% BB, 3.17 ERA, 3.38 SIERA
Shane Bieber at Orioles – 16.8% K, 6.5% BB, 3.04 ERA, 4.69 SIERA
Justin Steele vs. Rays – 21.8% K, 6.1% BB, 2.77 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
Lance Lynn vs. Angels – 25.7% K, 8.6% BB, 5.83 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
I have only one issue with this early slate, and that is I am not going to be on an island with Mitch Keller anymore. He’s a pretty fun guy to hang out on islands with. He can catch fish with his bare hands and make tree forts in the shape of famous landmarks. And of course, he can build ships to get off those islands, because you know, he’s a Pirate.
OK, sorry. Anyhow, because of the size of this slate, Keller’s tremendous season is not going to fly under the radar again, but he’s so far above these other pitchers that he lands in Don’t Overthink It territory for me. We saw last week what happens when he finally has a ‘bad’ start, and that still comes with 8 strikeouts and 15.5 DK points. I’m all in.
Because Zach Eflin had such a noticeable and weird start last time out, I think people are going to overreact and assume he is a no-strikeout pitcher. The simple truth is that Eflin has been a far superior strikeout arm to Shane Bieber this season. Bieber has struck out more than four batters just twice in 11 starts. That is terrible for DFS. Still a good real-life pitcher, but this ain’t real life. Meanwhile, Eflin has more than four strikeouts in six of his nine starts and just has better overall numbers than Bieber. Eflin is more expensive, and realistically, you won’t be pairing either of them with Keller in most lineups. But if choosing between them, I strongly prefer Eflin.
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