MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, July 3
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, July 3rd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Six games on today’s main slate with a good mix of strong SP options and solid offenses to target. There’s one game to monitor for rain, a bit of injury news, and always some lineup notes to go along with my top stacks. Let’s preview the slate and get to some MLB DFS picks for today!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- BAL/NYY is our biggest rain concern today, as it’s currently rated yellow, with rain likely at first pitch and an increasing chance for rain late. As of now, I likely won’t be targeting SPs here, especially not in cash games. Bats may end up being just GPP plays if the risk of delays and potentially a PPD gets higher closer to lock. Temps in the 80s if it plays.
- KCR/MIN is also rated yellow but seems much less risky for bats, as a few pop-up storms should gradually fade out. This game is our best hitting weather of the slate, with temps in the low 90s to high 80s, 40-55% humidity, and 10mph wind blowing out to left.
- ATL/CLE will be in the 70s, PIT/LAD in the high 60s, LAA/SDP in the mid 60s, and SEA/SFG in the high 50s.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Westburg was hit by a 101mph fastball to the back of his left hand, and Hays left early with a left hip contusion yesterday for Baltimore. For now, I’d expect at least one, if not both, to be out today. That should give Hicks a spot in the outfield, while Urias will likely handle 2B.
- Royce Lewis went on the IL over the weekend for the Twins, and Jose Miranda was called up to replace him. Against another lefty today, look for Miranda to find a spot in the lineup along with most of the Twins’ righties.
- Brandon Drury went on the IL yesterday, and Velasquez was brought back up. The Angels are deep with bats that can play most of the infield positions, and against a lefty today, I’d expect Rengifo to replace Drury in the lineup.
- Michael Conforto remained out of the lineup yesterday, so until there’s any positive news on him starting, expect him to remain out.
- Ji-hwan Bae went on the IL for Pittsburgh yesterday, while Bryan Reynolds returned from the IL. Gonzales, Marcano, and Castro will handle the 2B/SS starts for now, while Davis and Palacios will split time at RF.
- The Twins have the highest projected run total currently at around 5.2 runs. For pure upside, I’ll side with the Braves as the top stack today, while the Twins are a much cheaper lineup overall and will be much easier to stack in cash games. Barria has allowed 8 ER with just three total strikeouts over his last three outings, so the Padres are definitely a stack worth having exposure to. Pittsburgh is another offense that should be low-owned, but will be one of my favorite GPP stacks if Michael Grove does end up starting for LAD.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Ryan, Webb, and Keller could each end up being the top SP today, and I’d have GPP exposure to all of them. In cash games, I’m going with Blake Snell ($10,900), as his price isn’t high enough compared to the other top options today. Snell has 10+ strikeouts in four straight games with just three ER over that stretch. Even against the likes of a Trout/Ohtani lineup, his upside is just too huge to fade in my main build.
- The Twins are loaded with value today, and I’d expect most cash game lineups to have 3-4 of their bats today. Hitting in 90-degree temps against the lefty Cox, guys like Byron Buxton ($3,100) and Carlos Correa ($2,900) are absolute steals today. Solano ($2,500) and Farmer ($2,300) are who I’d use to round out a full stack.
I like taking higher than two 1.5 total bases for Buxton on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Using a full Twins stack will give you a bunch of extra salary to fit in 2-4 Braves bats in cash games, and I’d try jamming in Acuna ($4,800) and Olson ($4,400) if you can to start. Albies ($3,600) and Riley ($3,700) are excellent cheaper options if you absolutely need the salary and can’t fit in all four. Ozuna ($3,100) and Rosario ($3,100) are solid value options that will be much lower-owned than the previous four mentioned.
- Manny Machado ($3,100) remains way too cheap and is my favorite way to get SD exposure in cash games, along with Kim ($3,000). Meanwhile, Jack Suwinski ($2,900) will be a top cash game value option from PIT if Grove starts for LAD.
- Someone over at DK had to have misclicked on Blake Snell salary and made him $8,600 instead of $11,600, as this is about as bad of a mispricing for an SP we’ve ever seen. Snell was $10,300 last start and had another huge game with 26.5 FP, so there’s zero justification for his price dropping almost $2k for today. He’s the fourth most expensive pitcher on the board and will/should be the highest-owned in cash games and likely all formats. Right now, I’m strongly considering pairing Snell with Bryan Woo ($6,600) in cash games, as that combo will allow you to stack a bunch of expensive Braves bats. Woo has been excellent in four starts, going for 17-25 FP in each. If I don’t go with Woo, I’ll do my best to fit in Joe Ryan ($10,000), as I like his matchup with KC much better than the other expensive SPs.
- It’s the same story with bats on DK as FD, with the Twins offering fantastic value and the Braves being the top offense. I want at least 2-3 of their bats from in my main build. Solano ($2,500) and Farmer ($2,400) should hit high in the order with the platoon advantage and are my favorite values of the slate. Buxton ($5,200) would be my priority over Correa ($4,500) if you only use one expensive Twins bat. I’ll fit in as many Braves bats as I can until salary runs out, with my priority ranking being Acuna-Olson-Albies-Riley-Murphy-Rosario-Ozuna, and of course, it depends on positional availability as well.
- Machado ($5,200) is still a strong play, but not as much of a value compared to FD. If you want SD exposure in cash games, I’d look at Kim ($4,300), Cronenworth ($4,200) and Sanchez ($3,900) for top p/$ value. Jack Suwinski ($3,300) is an even better value on DK compared to FD, and is a top cash game OF bat if LAD starts Grove. Carlos Santana ($2,600) and Henry Davis ($2,500) are super cheap if you want a mini Pirates value stack.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!