Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (April 7)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Nice start for the Tuesday edition with home runs from Kyle Tucker and Franmil Reyes. Andrew Heaney, on the other hand…
Brad Keller’s Overhauled Arsenal vs. San Francisco’s Swinging Strike Rate
Keller basically set his 2018-22 arsenal on fire in his first outing of 2023. He added TWO new breaking balls and sliced his fastball usage from 58.4% in 2022 (already a career-low) to 35.2%. Keller threw his new curveball and sweeper along with his slider a whopping 61.4% of the time against Minnesota.
Smallest sample possible, and he didn’t even pitch that well (4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6:4 K:BB), but it’s the Swinging Strike numbers that have my attention. Missing bats has long been an issue for Keller as he sits at a below-average 9.0% SwStr% for his career. He threw up a 13.6% vs. the Twins, which would’ve ranked 17th among starters with at least 100 IP last season.
San Francisco has had a tough time making contact this year, striking out 27.2% of the time against righties (28th) with a 12.9% SwStr% (27th). Keller is the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel’s early slate. He’s ahead of just two guys on DraftKings. I’m grabbing the over on his strikeout prop (3.5 at -140 on FanDuel) and adding a half unit on some alt lines (5-plus at +172 and 6-plus at +390).
Jack Flaherty’s Name Value vs. Milwaukee’s Name Value
Speaking of overhauling arsenals, Flaherty’s stuff looked quite different in his first start. And not in a good way. The velocity was down on all of his pitches, with the four-seamer free-falling to 91 MPH. Flaherty fired five no-hit innings against Toronto but with seven walks. He’s just not the frontline starter he was as recently as 2021.
The Brewers don’t have a bunch of big names, but it’s been a productive lineup. Milwaukee is 7th in wOBA and 8th in wRC+ against righties this season. They’ve pounded Carlos Carrasco and Max Scherzer already this week. Rookies Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang and Joey Weimer have excelled, while free agent signing Brian Anderson is off to a sizzling start.
Projected ownership suggests Milwaukee won’t be an obvious target, with Jesse Winker the only guy above 10% projected ownership on either site. Getting exposure to the Brewers in tournaments makes a lot of sense. I’m jumping on their first 5 innings team total too (o2.5 at +105 on DraftKings).
The Angels’ Heavenly Spot vs. All the Other Great Hitting Spots
The main slate features several blowup spots. Nationals/Rockies was a stinker yesterday but Coors is still Coors. The Dodgers get Madison Bumgarner, who they already knocked around in his first start. The red-hot Rays get the inconsistent Ken Waldichuk. Jared Shuster had a miserable debut and now faces a talented Padres group. And we already talked about Milwaukee vs. Flaherty.
Then there’s the Angels. Virtually no projected ownership outside of Mike Trout despite facing Chris Bassitt, who was just blasted by St. Louis for 9 ER and 4 dingers. Bassitt’s fastball velocity was down 1.5 ticks (actually an improvement from Spring Training), and he managed a paltry 15.8% CSW% (called strike + swinging strike rate).
No team struck out more often against righties than the Angels last season, but they’ve trimmed the punchouts a bit this year (23.1% – 14th in the league). Bassitt isn’t fooling anyone right now, so expect plenty of loud contact from this LA lineup. They’re an excellent pivot away from the chalky offenses tonight.