Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (August 25)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Picked on the Angels on Tuesday and Graham Ashcraft had a career-high 10 strikeouts. Going right back to the well…
Kodai Senga’s Rookie Adjustments vs. LA’s Depleted Lineup
It’s weird to think of a 30-year-old as a rookie, but he is, and Senga’s made some rookie-like adjustments. He had an egregious 46 walks over 81.2 innings through June. And then … he fixed it.
Senga cut the BBs to 15 in 48 innings since the start of July. He has a crisp 2.63 ERA and a 6-2 record across eight starts. The strikeouts have fallen off a bit, but that’s a worthwhile tradeoff.
The Angels are dead last in wOBA and wRC+ vs. RHPs in August AND they just lost Mike Trout (again) and Shohei Ohtani (maybe). This may be the best matchup for opposing pitchers moving forward, depending on if Ohtani continues to hit with his torn UCL or shuts it down.
SUMMARY: There is no shortage of aces tonight, which means Senga might fall through the cracks. The matchup and recent form make him a priority for me, especially on DraftKings where he’s $3K+ cheaper than Spencer Strider.
Philly Heating Up vs. Miles Mikolas Cooling Off
The Phillies are getting hot at the right time (sound familiar?). Their disappointing offense is sizzling in August, ranking 3rd in OPS and wOBA vs. RHPs. Philadelphia is 1st in HRs against righties this month.
Mikolas has his tiny walk rate like usual (92nd percentile), but he’s at a career-worst 16.5% K% and a career-high 40.8% hard-hit rate. He had done a decent job at run prevention, but he’s allowed 11 ER over his last 11 IP and his ERA is up to a career-high 4.55.
SUMMARY: This is an excellent spot for the Phillies, especially in the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park. Expect that bell to be ringing. It won’t be cheap, but this stack has plenty of upside at reasonable ownership.
Brandon Pfaadt’s Pitch Mix vs. Cincinnati’s Stumbling Offense
Speaking of rookie adjustments, Pfaadt’s most recent stretch in the bigs has featured a pitch mix tweak. He threw the 4-seamer and sinker 57.2% of the time during his first six starts, but they’ve been down to 49.9% in his six starts since returning. Basically all of that usage has moved to the sweeper, which is up to 31.6% from 22.5%.
And guess what? The sweeper is a good pitch, and the fastball/sinker stink. Pfaadt’s sweeper has held hitters to a .150 BA and generated a healthy 31.2% whiff rate. His 4-seamer has been pounded for a .321 BA and a .634SLG, while the sinker has been even worse at a .417 BA and a .750 SLG.
Elly De La Cruz gave this Cincinnati offense a jolt in June, carrying them to a top 10 wRC+ against righties. As he’s slowed down, the team has regressed. The Reds fell to 17th in wRC+ vs. RHPs in July, and they’re down to 24th in August.
SUMMARY: If you need to save some salary, Pfaadt is the way to go. Not sure it’s necessary on this slate, but he’s a reasonable option at this price. And if you happen to know him personally, tell him to throw more sweepers (and curveballs).