Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (August 4)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Alright, Carlos Rodon isn’t back yet. My bad. At least the Rockies came through on Tuesday. Looking forward to today’s slate, should be a fun one.
Gunnar Henderson’s Splits vs. David Peterson’s Expected Workload
Peterson has struggled this season between the starting rotation and the bullpen, with a 5.92 ERA and a career-high 44.8% hard-hit rate (13th percentile). Baltimore is one of my favorite stacks today, and including Henderson is a good way to differentiate from the field.
The initial reaction with the Orioles is to jam in the righties/switch hitters at the top of the order. Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander and Austin Hays all have excellent numbers against lefties. Henderson is pricey and left-handed, so he’ll be ignored in stacks.
Lefties have actually done more damage than righties against Peterson (.264 vs. .148 ISO), albeit in a smaller sample. And how long will he even be out there? His last six appearances have been out of the bullpen and he hasn’t topped 24 pitches since early July. We have him at 65 pitches, which feels like a high-end outcome.
SUMMARY: Don’t forget Henderson when stacking Baltimore. Peterson has given up big power to lefties and he won’t go through the lineup more than twice. Henderson and his .264 ISO vs. RHPs might get three shots against the New York bullpen.
St. Louis’ Matchup vs. All the Other Great Matchups
There’s no shortage of excellent hitting spots today, so some teams are going to get left out. The Cardinals might slip through the cracks.
Chris Flexen has been an absolute disaster this season. His 6.74 xERA is among the worst in the league and he’s allowed 18 ER in his last 12.1 IP. Once Flexen gets knocked out, he’ll give way to a bullpen with the 4th-highest ERA in the league. Only the Oakland ‘pen has allowed more earned runs.
Every St. Louis hitter is projected for single-digit ownership on both sites except Tyler O’Neill on DraftKings, and he’s only at 10.68%.
SUMMARY: There are many stacks to choose from on this slate. Don’t forget about the Cardinals. I’m looking to get Nootbaar/Goldscmidt/Arenado in there wherever possible. Tommy Edman is a flexible salary saver.
Reid Detmers’ Strikeout Upside vs. Seattle’s Righty-Heavy Lineup
Detmers has clear flaws. He’s remarkably inefficient and gives up too much hard contact. But, he gets strikeouts. LOTS of strikeouts.
The young lefty had a 6.12 ERA in July, yet still put up 33 Ks in 25 innings. He might only make it through five innings today, but that could mean double-digit strikeouts against Seattle.
The Mariners have a 26.6% K% vs. LHPs on the season, second only to the Rockies. Today’s projected lineup has a 27.2% strikeout rate against lefties. Detmers has a 31.7% K% vs. RHBs and just a 19.3% K% vs. LHBs, but Seattle should only have one lefty in the lineup (J.P. Crawford).
SUMMARY: Since I’m spending on bats, I’ll be shopping in the Detmers/Montgomery/Brown range at SP. A quality start and win might be unlikely, but I’ll take 8-9 Ks and keep it moving.
Give me Detmers Over 7.5 Ks at +120 on BetMGM. Might mess around and hit a ladder too. FanDuel has 10 plus strikeouts at +420.