Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (June 16)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Just another Thursday for Ohtani. Pitching win and a 2-run bomb to tie for the league lead. He’s -250 to win MVP on FanDuel right now. They might be missing a zero.
Taijuan Walker’s Velocity vs. Oakland’s Improving Lineup
Walker has fired 12 scoreless innings over his last two starts and his velocity has been WAY up. Like old man with balloons on his house Up.
His 4-seamer sits at 93.2 MPH on the season, but it had declined during his six May starts, bottoming out at 92 MPH in his June 1 outing. Walker’s velo jumped back up to 94.7 MPH against the Tigers last week and rose to a season-high 95.3 MPH on Sunday against the Dodgers.
There are some classification discrepancies between Walker’s 4-seamer and sinker so the pitch data isn’t perfect. But if you combine both pitches, it still comes out to a season-high 94.6 MPH in his last start.
The A’s aren’t a pushover right now. They’ve been a borderline top 10 offense vs. RHPs in June (9th in wRC+, 11th in wOBA).
SUMMARY: I’m intrigued by Walker’s increased velocity and the price is too good to pass up, especially on DraftKings. His $7K salary allows you to basically fit any stack you want.
Andrew Abbott’s Underlying Metrics vs. Houston’s Depleted Lineup
Abbott’s first two MLB starts look good on the surface, but the underlying stats are less-than-stellar. He’s yet to allow a run over 11.2 IP despite a 10:7 K:BB and a 50% hard-hit rate. Something has to give.
Houston has been uninspiring on offense all season and losing Yordan Alvarez is a massive blow. But this is still a projected lineup with six hitters rocking above-average wOBAs vs. LHPs.
Kyle Tucker is the headliner (yep, lefty-lefty doesn’t bother him) and he’s the only expensive piece. Mauricio Dubon, Chas McCormick and Jeremy Pena are all reasonably priced and have solid numbers against lefties.
SUMMARY: Abbott’s performance so far is a bit of a mirage. Houston has the bats to cash in on his mistakes. Outside of Tucker, this stack is quite affordable.
I’m taking the Houston team total Over 4.5 (-110 on FanDuel).
Jordan Walker’s Exit Velocity vs. Tylor Megill’s Unimposing Skills
The trip to the minors might’ve fixed Walker. In April (19 games), he posted a 90 MPH average exit velocity. Through a dozen June contests, he’s at 95.5 MPH. Walker has a .907 OPS in June after putting up a .741 mark in April.
Megill just isn’t anything to be worried about. He was lit up for 7 ER against the Pirates in his last start, pushing his ERA to 5.14. He has a 49:35 K:BB and has only made it through six innings once since early April.
The Cardinals are pretty expensive which is keeping projected ownership in check. The full stack might be tough, particularly on DraftKings.
SUMMARY: The St. Louis stack is too pricey, but I love Walker as a one-off bat. He’s cheap and is smashing everything right now.