Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (August 1)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
We don’t get a lot of NBA-style “push the chips in” moves in baseball. The Angels and Rangers are kind of doing it, and it’s awesome. Love seeing teams do everything they can to maximize their chances for this season. Just makes it more fun.
Carlos Rodon’s Upside vs. Spencer Strider Chalk
Fading Strider never feels good. He’s amazing and his upside is unmatched. But at these prices and projected ownership, I’ll be looking for ways to differentiate at SP. Strider is $1.4K more expensive than the next-closest pitcher on DraftKings, and he’s still showing over 30% pOWN.
Rodon hasn’t looked great in his four starts after a long injury layoff, especially with the command. He’s rocking an unsightly 15:12 K:BB over 20.1 innings. But the upside is still there, according to our projections. Rodon has the 4th-highest ceiling projection on FanDuel and the 5th-highest on DraftKings.
Tampa Bay used to be a scary matchup, and they’re still 3rd in wRC+ vs. LHPs on the season. Since the start of June, however, they’re dead last (71 wRC+). The Rays are 5th in K% and 24th in BB% against lefties over that span.
SUMMARY: Rodon isn’t going to match Strider, but we don’t need him to. A solid outing in an exploitable matchup will be enough, particularly with the $3K+ in savings.
Oakland’s No-Name Lefties vs. Lance Lynn’s Splits
Lefties against Lynn have been a thing all season. This will be a true test, though. Because … who are these guys again? Not gonna click on Cody Thomas just because he has an “L” next to his name.
Here are the splits real quick. Lynn has allowed an MVP-caliber .338/.401/.636 slash line to lefties, including 18 HRs in just 52 IP. Righties are at just a .208/.284/.368 line, although they still have 10 HRs.
Oakland was middle-of-the-pack against righties in July with a 103 wRC+. Today’s projected lineup has just a .289 wOBA and a hefty 25.3% K% vs. RHPs.
SUMMARY: Jamming in Oakland’s cheap lefties might be necessary if you go Strider, especially on DK. Since I’m fading Strider, I’ll probably be staying away from this group. Maybe JJ Bleday or Seth Brown as a one-off power bat, but that’s it.
Coors Bats vs. Weather Forecast
“COL straight up PLAYS!”
Love this sentiment from Kevin Roth. It’s the best argument for rolling the dice on Padres/Rockies again tonight, despite the weather forecast. Ryan Weathers vs. Peter Lambert in Coors is a spot we’d be drooling over if there weren’t any issues with Mother Nature.
The San Diego bats are priced pretty aggressively on both sites, it might be tough to fit them in. I’ll be turning my attention to the Rockies, specifically the righties up top.
SUMMARY: Keep an eye on the forecast and throw Roth a follow on Twitter. There’s a big payoff here if the weather scares everyone off this game. Profar/Tovar/Diaz is a great way to get cheap exposure to this spot, and you can pivot to the A’s if we get a PPD in Colorado.