Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (May 2)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
The Padres/Giants total on Sunday was a classic Kevin Malone situation. Any time someone gives you Under 20.5 runs, you take it.
Tanner Bibee’s Limited Sample vs. Scuffling Bombers
Bibee is the latest of Cleveland’s never-ending stream of pitching prospects. His debut went well; 5.2 innings of one-run ball at home against Colorado.
The Rockies on the road is a glorious matchup … but the Yankees might not be far off right now. New York is bottom 10 in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. right-handers. Aaron Judge hit the IL on Monday with a hip issue.
The problem is Gerrit Cole is on the other side. Cleveland’s offense isn’t any good either, and Cole has been his normal dominant self.
SUMMARY: This is a borderline great matchup, and I like Bibee as a cheap play, even though a win will be difficult to come by. The price is right and the projected ownership isn’t out of hand, especially on FanDuel.
Graham Ashcraft’s Slider vs. San Diego’s Underperforming Offense
Ashcraft threw his 96 MPH cutter 50.7% of the time in 2022, followed by the slider (27.1%) and sinker (21.5%). The sinker usage has been steady this year, but the cutter and slider are much closer now. Ashcraft has gone 40.3% cutter and 38.9% slider through five starts.
And it makes sense. The slider has gone from being a below-average pitch to solidly above average in terms of pitch value. It’s limited hitters to a measly .130 BA and a .150 SLG. Ashcraft has allowed hard contact on the slider just 22.6% of the time (the league average hard hit rate is 35.9%).
SUMMARY: San Diego is 28th in strikeout rate vs. RHPs. There’s a safe floor and decent upside here for Ashcraft. He pairs nicely with one of the aces on DraftKings or as a pivot off of the Cole/Gallen/Ryan group if you’re trying to fit some expensive bats.
I’m also grabbing the Reds on the First 5 Innings spread (+100 on Caesars).
Angels’ Lefty Mashers vs. Steven Matz’ Contact Metrics
If we’re going cheap at pitching, we’ll have some salary to spend. Los Angeles facing a struggling LHP feels like the way to go.
The Angels have excelled against lefties, as they are top 7 in OPS, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+. Eight hitters in their projected lineup have above-average hard-hit rates vs. southpaws. Five hitters have ISOs over .200.
Matz is allowing a healthy 48.7% hard-hit rate to go with a career-worst 11% walk rate. Hard contact and free base runners? Sounds like a good pitcher to target.
SUMMARY: It’s expensive, but this stack comes with minimal projected ownership and plenty of upside. The big right-handed trio of Trout/Renfroe/Drury is a good start, and Zach Neto is a nice salary saver. Can even throw Ohtani in there if you’re feeling frisky.